Nate Silver now gives GOP 74% chance of capturing Senate

[DigitalDrifter]

Apparently there are more disgusted people than I thought, and a lot more people who will stay home than I thought.

I'll believe it when I see it. I have consistently predicted a gain in the Senate, but not enough to flip, and a few additional net gain seats in the House.

NATE SILVER: 74 PERCENT CHANCE GOP WILL TAKE SE

On Sunday's broadcast of ABC's "This Week," Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight.com said statistically, the Republican Party has strong odds for its chances of taking control of the U.S. Senate following next week's midterm elections.

Partial transcript as follows:

STEPHANOPOULOS: You might remember Nate Silver from 2012. He's the forecast from fivethirtyeight.com. And his statistical take on the presidential election was dead on, correctly predicting how all 50 states would break. He's inspired all kinds of imitators. This time around, all of them are predicting a big election for the GOP. The New York Times giving the Republicans a 70 percent chance of retaking the Senate. Huffington Post at 74 percent, and the Washington Post puts GOP chances at a whopping 94 percent. Let's hear from Nate himself. Thanks for joining us, Nate. Saw your post this morning, 72 percent and climbing for Republican takeover.

SILVER: Yes, we saw some new polls this morning in states like Georgia, Kentucky, that have further good news for the GOP.

Looks, it's still a close election. You have six or seven or eight races that can go either way. But like that poll in Iowa last night, which, as you mentioned, is one of the most reliable polls in the country. All these races are being held in purple or red states too. So the bar isn't that high. The polls are clearer now that the GOP will -- will probably win the Senate. We can bet a 73, 74 percent chance right now.

more: Nate Silver 74 Percent Chance GOP Will Take Senate

 

[Statistikhengst]

I give the GOP more than a 90% chance of getting to 51 seats when all is said and done.

 

[Meathead]

I give the GOP more than a 90% chance of getting to 51 seats when all is said and done.

Is that based on your 110% scale or the regular one?

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

 

[Coloradomtnman]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

 

[The Rabbi]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

This election will put the lie to the "THe GOP party of old white men is dying off" meme. Basically anyone in favor of freedom, opportunity, and a strong foreign policy will vote GOP. And that's still most of the country, regardless of color.

 

[The Rabbi]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

 

[Coloradomtnman]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

The Democrat party is inclusive and protective of minorities. They fight for marriage equality. They fight for voting protections. They fight for social programs that are there for the most vulnerable in society. Why would brown or gay people vote for policians who want to take those rights and protections away? How is that racist?

 

[Coloradomtnman]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Thanks. It's good to feel appreciated for being open-minded.

 

[Oldstyle]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

The arc of justice always leans left? Really? Not exactly the best paraphrase of a quote I've ever heard, Mountain! Part of the problem with liberals these days is that they seem to believe that the end justifies the means...no matter how badly they "bend" the arc of justice in the process.

 

[Kosh]

The GOP looks like they will take the senate with 51 seats..

However it is what they do with this opportunity that will be the real telling issue.

Then again voting far left has shown to never be the answer, so what other alternative is there?

 

[Coloradomtnman]

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

This election will put the lie to the "THe GOP party of old white men is dying off" meme. Basically anyone in favor of freedom, opportunity, and a strong foreign policy will vote GOP. And that's still most of the country, regardless of color.

Freedom to what? Discriminate? I'm in favor of freedom, opportunity, and smart foreign policy. I'm not in favor of how the GOP defines or attempts to accomplish those things. I'm also in favor of social tolerance, education, equitable policy, well-regulated markets and industry, science and technology, social mobility, and civil liberties. I'm not in favor of oligarchies, monopolies, political corruption, secret money, bloated defense spending, aggressive foreign policy, and lazzes-faire economic policies. Are the Democrats perfect about any of those? No way. Are they better than the GOP about those issues? Yes. And most young people agree. Look at the polls.

Just shows that obviously Obama has failed to keep his party energized, and many obviously are not thrilled with his agenda or they would be out in historic #'s.

Liberals are not thrilled with how Obama's presidency is going, you're right. He's done some very good things (killed Bin Laden, turned the economy around), some okay things (ACA-we want single payer but it's a step in the right... or left direction), but also some very bad things: expansion of the Patriot Act, expansion of the NSA, keeping troops in Afghanistan, not kicking out the lobbyists, and not living up to some of his campaign promises.

Liberals vote Democrat, not because we're democrats but because, from our POV, they're better than the GOP and we learned an important lesson in 2000 with Nader: don't split the vote. How does a political party energize that? Then there are historical trends about midterms that haven't and aren't changing yet.

So liberals should look to the long term: eventually Fox News' viewership will die, the country is becoming browner, gay-er, and more inclusive towards minorities and progress is inevitable despite these kinds of setbacks. Just look at marriage equality, SSN, Medicare/Medicaid, and other now-entrenched social programs... The conservative/liberal dynamic will never go away, but the arc of justice always leans left.

The arc of justice always leans left? Really? Not exactly the best paraphrase of a quote I've ever heard, Mountain! Part of the problem with liberals these days is that they seem to believe that the end justifies the means...no matter how badly they "bend" the arc of justice in the process.

I thought it was funny.

What means are liberals justifying through what ends? Voting? Following the Constitution? To get marriage equality and representatives who represent their interests? Both of those are constitutional and unless you can show me that dirty politics is practiced by only one side, or by far by one side, I don't see what you mean.

 

[The Rabbi]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

The Democrat party is inclusive and protective of minorities. They fight for marriage equality. They fight for voting protections. They fight for social programs that are there for the most vulnerable in society. Why would brown or gay people vote for policians who want to take those rights and protections away? How is that racist?

Bullshit.
The Democrat Party patronizes minorities. They fight for policies that are designed to keep minorities from achieving success. They fight for policies opposed by minorities, esp gay marriage. They fight for voter fraud and disenfrachisement. They fight for programs that perpetuate poverty, ignorance, bigotry, and hatred. And they get poor saps like you to believe their rhetoric.

 

[blackhawk]

I think what people are finally seeing is Obama liked the idea of being President far more than he liked doing the job of President. This is a large part of why the Democrats are likely to lose the Senate as another poster said the real question now is what will the Republicans do with the majority if they get it.

 

[Coloradomtnman]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

The Democrat party is inclusive and protective of minorities. They fight for marriage equality. They fight for voting protections. They fight for social programs that are there for the most vulnerable in society. Why would brown or gay people vote for policians who want to take those rights and protections away? How is that racist?

Bullshit.
The Democrat Party patronizes minorities. They fight for policies that are designed to keep minorities from achieving success. They fight for policies opposed by minorities, esp gay marriage. They fight for voter fraud and disenfrachisement. They fight for programs that perpetuate poverty, ignorance, bigotry, and hatred. And they get poor saps like you to believe their rhetoric.

You're right! How did I not see this before? It's all a conspiracy! Excuse me while I go get the tin foil...

 

[The Rabbi]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

The Democrat party is inclusive and protective of minorities. They fight for marriage equality. They fight for voting protections. They fight for social programs that are there for the most vulnerable in society. Why would brown or gay people vote for policians who want to take those rights and protections away? How is that racist?

Bullshit.
The Democrat Party patronizes minorities. They fight for policies that are designed to keep minorities from achieving success. They fight for policies opposed by minorities, esp gay marriage. They fight for voter fraud and disenfrachisement. They fight for programs that perpetuate poverty, ignorance, bigotry, and hatred. And they get poor saps like you to believe their rhetoric.

You're right! How did I not see this before? It's all a conspiracy! Excuse me while I go get the tin foil...

See. When challenged on the facts you run away. Thats why you're a lib. I did not posit any conspiracy anywhere. It's pretty open and obvious. Just open your eyes.

 

[Coloradomtnman]

Browner, and gayer. Great outlook.

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

The Democrat party is inclusive and protective of minorities. They fight for marriage equality. They fight for voting protections. They fight for social programs that are there for the most vulnerable in society. Why would brown or gay people vote for policians who want to take those rights and protections away? How is that racist?

Bullshit.
The Democrat Party patronizes minorities. They fight for policies that are designed to keep minorities from achieving success. They fight for policies opposed by minorities, esp gay marriage. They fight for voter fraud and disenfrachisement. They fight for programs that perpetuate poverty, ignorance, bigotry, and hatred. And they get poor saps like you to believe their rhetoric.

You're right! How did I not see this before? It's all a conspiracy! Excuse me while I go get the tin foil...

See. When challenged on the facts you run away. Thats why you're a lib. I did not posit any conspiracy anywhere. It's pretty open and obvious. Just open your eyes.

Is that what you call those? Facts? Oh no, what posited definitely was't conspiracy theory-ish at all. There's no point communicating with you because your reasoning isn't rational. So I'm not going to. If it makes you feel better to call it running away, go for it.

 

[The Rabbi]

Because brown gay people are always Democrats.
It's the Democrat racism coming through.

The Democrat party is inclusive and protective of minorities. They fight for marriage equality. They fight for voting protections. They fight for social programs that are there for the most vulnerable in society. Why would brown or gay people vote for policians who want to take those rights and protections away? How is that racist?

Bullshit.
The Democrat Party patronizes minorities. They fight for policies that are designed to keep minorities from achieving success. They fight for policies opposed by minorities, esp gay marriage. They fight for voter fraud and disenfrachisement. They fight for programs that perpetuate poverty, ignorance, bigotry, and hatred. And they get poor saps like you to believe their rhetoric.

You're right! How did I not see this before? It's all a conspiracy! Excuse me while I go get the tin foil...

See. When challenged on the facts you run away. Thats why you're a lib. I did not posit any conspiracy anywhere. It's pretty open and obvious. Just open your eyes.

Is that what you call those? Facts? Oh no, what posited definitely was't conspiracy theory-ish at all. There's no point communicating with you because your reasoning isn't rational. So I'm not going to. If it makes you feel better to call it running away, go for it.

Run away!!

 

[LoneLaugher]

Nobody in the entire nation would be surprised to see the GOP with 51-53 seats in the senate by the time the votes are counted.

There won't be any pundits with egg on their faces if that happens. I'm not sure why there has been a spate of threads on it in the last few days.....as if it is controversial.

Great thread!