Nate Silver: Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

[Mac1958]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Yeah, exactly. A big news story outside of the campaign could easily sway this thing.
.

 

[candycorn]

No worries. She’s killing it where she needs to:

And of course with the other states, these battle grounds above will give her a pretty comfortable victory. She needs to do better in Nevada and she’s still pushing in Florida and Ohio.

Ol’ Nate isn’t even counting NM as a toss up any longer…he he he

Hillary is Cruising.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

 

[Iceweasel]

No worries. She’s killing it where she needs to:

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And of course with the other states, these battle grounds above will give her a pretty comfortable victory. She needs to do better in Nevada and she’s still pushing in Florida and Ohio.

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Ol’ Nate isn’t even counting NM as a toss up any longer…he he he

Hillary is Cruising.

308 to 0 !!! Hillary wins by a landslide. Campaign is uncorked. Party hats fly through the air. Butts are squeezed.

Candycorn wakes from her wet dream.

 

[candycorn]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

 

[Iceweasel]

HRC is cruising.

Cool. She can just stay at home now, as can you come election day. It isn't even close.

 

[Oldstyle]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

 

[Billy_Bob]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I'm still amazed it is even this close.

The thing is Trump is cleaning up his campaign, and Hillary is plodding along with the same stuff she started out with.

The wild card to me is this racial stuff going on now, I'm not sure if its going to make blacks come out for hillary, make them shift to Trump due to dems being in control of the localities, or make them wait out this election in disgust.

Real Clear has her back up to a 3 point lead.

She was at 0.9 at one point.

RealClear is moving polls in and out of their averages...you can't depend on the average because it's not an average of the same polls each week

Real clear is not real or clear.. They do not use the same standards from day to day.. five days ago they changed the mix and whala... Clinton leads by three..

 

[Billy_Bob]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

Julian is hinting that this will happen early this weekend... most likely at the beginning of the news cycle and right before the debate... Would not surprise me if it happens this morning..

 

[candycorn]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.

 

[candycorn]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

Julian is hinting that this will happen early this weekend... most likely at the beginning of the news cycle and right before the debate... Would not surprise me if it happens this morning..

Curious how the hero for the GOP is a guy who illegally hacks into other computers….I guess when your party is closely identified with 2 bit hucksters and the figurehead is a film flam artist…you catch any bus that comes by.

Anyway; you never release information you want out on Friday.

 

[Iceweasel]

Curious how the hero for the GOP is a guy who illegally hacks into other computers….

Huh? If you are talking about Assange, Wikileaks doesn't do any hacking. They post results of hacking.

 

[Oldstyle]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.

Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured? She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange? He's slime. The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!

 

[Sun Devil 92]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

It also dumped a democratic senator.

She's ahead.

If you think her campaign or party are cruising, then I have to ask why there have been a bunch of articles from people like Eugene Robinson telling people not to panic.

I really liked the one by Michael Tomansky basically saying yeah she's old/worn out/and people think she cheats....but you should still vote for her.

I am not a Trump fan, but I don't have my head in the sand like you.

She is ahead.

Cruising....laughable.

 

[Sun Devil 92]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.

Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured? She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange? He's slime. The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!

The thing that pisses me off is that he'll wait until she can't respond.

I, frankly, find that disgusting.

 

[Oldstyle]

We haven't had the first debate yet. We haven't had the Assange e-mail dump yet. This race is essentially deadlocked. That's reality.

 

[Oldstyle]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.

Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured? She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange? He's slime. The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!

The thing that pisses me off is that he'll wait until she can't respond.

I, frankly, find that disgusting.

That quite frankly could work to Clinton's advantage, Sun! You know what her pat response is to any allegation of wrong doing is going to be. She'll deny it and call it part of yet another "vast right wing conspiracy" against her. Doing the dump too late in the election might not give the media time to verify the validity of the e-mails. That's why I think Assange will come out with what he has about two weeks BEFORE the election...enough time to show that Clinton is once more lying about what was in the e-mails.

 

[jillian]

That's all that matters.

Trump clearly experienced some momentum, but it has to continue.

The wild cards remain the debates and October surprises.
.

I agree.

And I really do think that people can swing on this one a lot easier.

There are a lot of people fed up with these two and the whole thing.

I think most people are dug in. there are some folk in the middle who seem to fluctuate.... although I'm not quite sure how but there ya go

 

[jillian]

We haven't had the first debate yet. We haven't had the Assange e-mail dump yet. This race is essentially deadlocked. That's reality.

your wishful thinking is amusing

the fact that you think putin's boy assange should tilt this election is particularly loser-ish

 

[candycorn]

She's not winning in Florida.

But who really cares.

The point is that this thing is a lot closer than it was a month ago and Clinton isn't cruising. She's got fouled machinery all over the place.

A 60% chance of winning in CO at this point would be a reason for concern.

Okay, take Florida off the blue map. Oh oh, she still has over 270. Last I checked it takes 270 to win.
And if you take Nevada off too…she still has over 270.

No need to worry about Colorado. Obama carried it by 2% over Romney who was from a neighboring state. Its gone blue in both the last 2 elections, has a democrat governor…

HRC is cruising.

Hillary is doing anything but "cruising", Candy! To show you how confused her campaign "message" is at the moment here in Florida the Clinton ad that they're running over and over again is one that attempts to paint Trump as hating the military because he wasn't in the military. What's laughable about THAT is it's coming from the Clinton's...a couple that has never respected the military. If that's the best thing they could come up with to "hit" Trump with...then they're in serious trouble! Especially with the Assange e-mail "reveal" due right before the election! Anytime someone pulls back the curtains and gives the American people a look at who the Clinton's really are and what they've done...Hillary's numbers take a nose dive. That's what Assange is about to do!

So HRC’s campaign is in trouble because she is running ads about how Donald “likes soldiers who were not captured”…

And Trump’s is in good shape because it’s depending on a hacker wanted by the authorities for date rape to release a supposed authentic e-mail.

Got it.

Admit it, Candy...the Clinton's have never been supporters of the military...yet she's now contending that she'd somehow be a better Commander in Chief because Trump likes soldiers who were not captured? She disliked the military so much that she didn't want them to wear uniforms when the visited the White House!

As for Assange? He's slime. The e-mails that he has access to however reveal the REAL Hillary Clinton and that's bad news for Hillary because the REAL Hillary Clinton is corrupt as the day is long!

She’s contending she’d be a better commander in chief because she has experience on the world stage, doesn’t think she knows more than the generals do, and has the proper contemplative temperament. Trump has said we are going to “take the oil” from ISIS. That means boots on the ground for the 3rd time in 25 years in the middle east. No thanks.

If you believe the man is slime…i’m curious how do you know what he is revealing is truthful? Oh yeah, I forgot; content=credibility in the world of Conservatives.