CDZ Mislearned Lessons of the Great Depression

[william the wie]

When did the bottom of the economy as opposed to the stock market drop out? July 1931. What trigger was pulled in June/July 1931, the corn crop failed due to the drought/dustbowl of 1931-9. When did employment, increase, when the drought ended in 1939.

The stock market is much smaller in terms of money changing hands than the commodities market. So when the commodities market crashed, 10% or more unemployment settled in until the commodities market recovered.

Since the commodities market crash and recovery was due to weather economic analysis ignored it and still does.

Weather is traditionally an exogenous variable that cannot be used to explain economic data and that has only changed some in the last decade. Effectively all of the economic histories of the Depression have the highest and best use of emergency butt wipe.

This misinformation/mythology plus ignoring what was happening in other countries causes major errors in reasoning.

 

[task0778]

Weather was a factor in causing the GD, but there were other factors too. Man-made factors. We could have weathered (see what I did there?) it with better fiscal policy, same as we could have ameliorated or maybe avoided the Great Recession about 10 years ago.

 

[regent]

So the stock market collapse had little to do with the Great Depression?. I hope historians take note of that newly discovered cause, that until now was considered just another problem.

 

[antifa]

Black Tuesday was in October of 1929.
Black Monday in 1987 was much worse of a decline because of derivatives.
Market manipulators make money on the decline.
Derivatives are much more widespread than they were in 2008.

I think I read that 5 to 7 countries will go bankrupt in the upcoming derivative crash. I'm not sure the market manipulators can pick the exact date but weather could get the blame for causing the panic.

 

[william the wie]

Weather was a factor in causing the GD, but there were other factors too. Man-made factors. We could have weathered (see what I did there?) it with better fiscal policy, same as we could have ameliorated or maybe avoided the Great Recession about 10 years ago.

Actually no on the GD. Stalin kept the NEP running until the US farmbelt was a wreck. Attempts to make a comeback in 1929 and 1930 failed due to the drought despite massive improvements in the prices being offered

 

[Tax Man]

Why is it that manufacturing in the industrial revolution just couldn't get going? Because of food or weather?

 

[william the wie]

Why is it that manufacturing in the industrial revolution just couldn't get going? Because of food or weather?

Really good question. Savary's steam engine was having decent sales in the 1690s and the sunspot minimum was nearly ended so the weather was improving. American food plants were already becoming more common in Europe which helped improve the diet, so those were not the problems. IDK, my SWAG is that no model has yet been developed that explains why the Industrial Revolution took off in Britain at the same time that we were declaring independence.