When did the bottom of the economy as opposed to the stock market drop out? July 1931. What trigger was pulled in June/July 1931, the corn crop failed due to the drought/dustbowl of 1931-9. When did employment, increase, when the drought ended in 1939. The stock market is much smaller in terms of money changing hands than the commodities market. So when the commodities market crashed, 10% or more unemployment settled in until the commodities market recovered. Since the commodities market crash and recovery was due to weather economic analysis ignored it and still does. Weather is traditionally an exogenous variable that cannot be used to explain economic data and that has only changed some in the last decade. Effectively all of the economic histories of the Depression have the highest and best use of emergency butt wipe. This misinformation/mythology plus ignoring what was happening in other countries causes major errors in reasoning.