Latest AGW Guess

[Crick]

A better question is "how is weather doing worldwide?"

The Pacific is having a very notable typhoon season and the polar vortex is not normal. Surface temperatures are still rising moderately and there exists a very good chance that a strong El Nino could return surface warming with a vengeance. The deep ocean is still far hotter than normal and getting hotter. That warming is almost undoubtedly what's driving the stronger than normal typhoons this season and there's a good chance that there's more than a single season's worth of excess warmth down there.

So, how's your weather?

 

[flacaltenn]

A better question is "how is weather doing worldwide?"

The Pacific is having a very notable typhoon season and the polar vortex is not normal. Surface temperatures are still rising moderately and there exists a very good chance that a strong El Nino could return surface warming with a vengeance. The deep ocean is still far hotter than normal and getting hotter. That warming is almost undoubtedly what's driving the stronger than normal typhoons this season and there's a good chance that there's more than a single season's worth of excess warmth down there.

So, how's your weather?

You should stick to insults.. That was embarrassingly stupid and desperate... Deep ocean warming causing typhoons....... strong el nino.... toss in a kitchen sink why dontcha???? ?? The polar vertex is not normal and your confabulator is unstable....

 

[Crick]

Do you actually have a response to anything I said? Are you suggesting there isn't a correlation between hurricanes/typhoons and ocean temperature? Do you believe polar vortices are a normal weather pattern? Ever seen one this strong before?

 

[jc456]

Do you actually have a response to anything I said? Are you suggesting there isn't a correlation between hurricanes/typhoons and ocean temperature? Do you believe polar vortices are a normal weather pattern? Ever seen one this strong before?

I see you're back playing with the pots and pans. Hey kettle, LoSiNg

 

[Crick]

I see that, as always, you're incapable of making a meaningful comment

 

[jc456]

I see that, as always, you're incapable of making a meaningful comment

I'll tell you what you answer the questions directed your way and you can bet that the posts will change, until then, you're just a punk that doesn't deserve anymore than what you've already seen.

 

[Crick]

I am quite certain that they wouldn't change in the slightest. That would be because you don't have anything else to bring to the discussion. Given that, conversations with you are very, very close to a complete and utter waste.

 

[SSDD]

Do you actually have a response to anything I said? Are you suggesting there isn't a correlation between hurricanes/typhoons and ocean temperature? Do you believe polar vortices are a normal weather pattern? Ever seen one this strong before?

What sort of correlation...negative or positive? If your claim is that warmer water produces more storms then the correlation seems to be falling apart...you claim warmer oceans but how long has it been since any major storm mad landfall here? Corelation does not equal causation...never has, never will.

 

[Crick]

Ocean storms operate almost entirely on the heat in the ocean's surface waters. There are numerous other factors that affect storm development and behavior: upper level shear, static high pressure zones, stationary cold fronts, etc. That the temperature - particularly the SST - of the world's oceans increaing will cause an increase in the amount of energy available for storms, is undeniable. If you'd like to deny that, we'll have further reason to believe you the most science-incompetent poster on this board.

 

[flacaltenn]

Do you actually have a response to anything I said? Are you suggesting there isn't a correlation between hurricanes/typhoons and ocean temperature? Do you believe polar vortices are a normal weather pattern? Ever seen one this strong before?

Doesn't matter what you or I "have seen". This past winter was not unique because of Rossby Waves. And SURFACE HEAT is one of a DOZEN neccessary but INSUFFICIENT causes of tropical storms. Without the full DOZEN --- nothing happens. If the warming is not JUST at the surface, it probably contributes very little to convection in storm formation. And AGW says that warming SHOULD be more uniform than just a surface effect.

You all straightened out now Bullwinkle??

 

[Crick]

FCT,

Why don't you get back to us when you have something to actually add to the discussion. You haven't refuted or corrected anything I've said. AGW most decidedly does NOT say warming should be uniform and no one would call warming just at the surface "uniform".

So, Bullwinkle, do fuck off.

 

[jc456]

FCT,

Why don't you get back to us when you have something to actually add to the discussion. You haven't refuted or corrected anything I've said. AGW most decidedly does NOT say warming should be uniform and no one would call warming just at the surface "uniform".

So, Bullwinkle, do fuck off.

 

[Crick]

I haven't a clue what your little cartoon is supposed to be doing. Try using words. English words. Arranged in meaningful sentences.

 

[skookerasbil]

From Science Daily, comes this piece that -almost- accepts the facts that the experts still don't know what's causing all this extreme weather.

Weather extremes in the summer -- such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 -- have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Human-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained.

Read more @ Trapped atmospheric waves triggering more weather extremes: Trend expected to continue -- ScienceDaily

LOLOLOLOL....."guess"???.....the anti-science and scientifically ignorant deniers are sooooo desperate....

Here's the actual article.....with the title the deniers want to omit....

Trapped atmospheric waves triggering more weather extremes: Trend expected to continue
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
August 11, 2014
Weather extremes in the summer -- such as the record heat wave in the United States that hit corn farmers and worsened wildfires in 2012 -- have reached an exceptional number in the last ten years. Human-made global warming can explain a gradual increase in periods of severe heat, but the observed change in the magnitude and duration of some events is not so easily explained. It has been linked to a recently discovered mechanism: the trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere. A new data analysis now shows that such wave-trapping events are indeed on the rise. "The large number of recent high-impact extreme weather events has struck and puzzled us," says Dim Coumou, lead author of the study conducted by a team of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "Of course we are warming our atmosphere by emitting CO2 from fossil fuels, but the increase in devastating heat waves in regions like Europe or the US seems disproportionate." One reason could be changes in circulation patterns in the atmosphere. By analysing large sets of global weather data, the researchers found an intriguing connection. An important part of the global air motion in the mid-latitudes normally takes the form of waves wandering around the globe, called Rossby Waves. When they swing north, they suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the US; and when they swing south, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic. However, the study shows that in periods with extreme weather, some of these waves become virtually stalled and greatly amplified. While a few warm days have little impact, effects on people and ecosystems can be severe when these periods are prolonged.

"Behind this, there is a subtle resonance mechanism that traps waves in the mid-latitudes and amplifies them strongly," says Stefan Rahmstorf, co-author of the study to be published in the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Using advanced data analysis, the new study shows that when certain resonance conditions are fulfilled, the atmosphere tends to develop anomalously slowly propagating waves with large amplitudes, typically associated with extreme weather on the ground. An important finding is that this phenomenon is occurring more often: After the year 2000, it has been almost twice as frequent as before. "Evidence for actual changes in planetary wave activity was so far not clear. But by knowing what patterns to look for, we have now found strong evidence for an increase in these resonance events." Why would these events be on the rise? Both theory and the new data suggest a link to processes in the Arctic. Since the year 2000, the Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the rest of the globe. One reason for this is that because the white sea ice is rapidly shrinking, less sunlight gets reflected back into space, while the open ocean is dark and hence warms more. "This melting of ice and snow is actually due to our lifestyle of churning out unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels," says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, co-author of the study and director of PIK. As the Arctic warms more rapidly, the temperature difference to other regions decreases. Yet temperature differences are a major driver of the atmospheric circulation patterns that in turn rule our weather. "The planetary waves topic illustrates how delicately interlinked components in the Earth system are." Schellnhuber concludes: "And it shows how disproportionately the system might react to our perturbations."

My God.....how much of a meathead is this guy ^^

This is his source >> Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

An exact analogy? This would be like Exxon/Mobil presenting a study on the warming haitus!!


You stoopid mofu

 

[skookerasbil]

 

[flacaltenn]

I haven't a clue what your little cartoon is supposed to be doing. Try using words. English words. Arranged in meaningful sentences.

Not worth it. Not with the level of discussion that YOU seem to desire.
You DO understand that storm formation is not driven by mere temperature? Particularly an increase of temperature AT ALTITUDE as well as at the surface. Storms are driven by THERMAL DIFFERENCES.. Where do you think the "excess heat" is stored? Where is the bulk of the CO2?

No storms on MOST of the hottest summer days. Why is that?

There's some words --

 

[Crick]

It is stored in the Excess of Heat Locker.

 

[SSDD]

It is stored in the Excess of Heat Locker.

You want to find your missing heat and the reason warming has stopped....look to the increasing outgoing lw at the top of the atmosphere....there is no missing heat, we know just where it's going....out. Result...no warming...beginning to cool...lets hope for warming rather than more cooling.

 

[Crick]

Let me guess. The world saw that the universe had cooled off so it decided to radiate away more energy. I have to ask, though, on what level was this decision made? Did the entire Earth make a single decision to increase its radiation or was it made locally at a majority of locations? Just how much Earth does one have to get together to establish sentience? Do those limits vary with the material involved? That is, is granite smarter than limestone? Does water sit at the intellectual apex of inanimate matter? Can I go to that swamp down south of me for stock advice?

The fact (the FACT) that you so consistently come to the wrong conclusions - to conclusions which not only grossly violate fundamental physical laws but insult common sense to a severe degree - really starts to make me think that you do so intentionally. There are stupid people and there are stupid people, but to make mistakes of the magnitude of yours on such a completely consistent basis requires intention, planning and forethought. Or else you really are that abysmally stupid.

 

[flacaltenn]

Let me guess. The world saw that the universe had cooled off so it decided to radiate away more energy. I have to ask, though, on what level was this decision made? Did the entire Earth make a single decision to increase its radiation or was it made locally at a majority of locations? Just how much Earth does one have to get together to establish sentience? Do those limits vary with the material involved? That is, is granite smarter than limestone? Does water sit at the intellectual apex of inanimate matter? Can I go to that swamp down south of me for stock advice?

The fact (the FACT) that you so consistently come to the wrong conclusions - to conclusions which not only grossly violate fundamental physical laws but insult common sense to a severe degree - really starts to make me think that you do so intentionally. There are stupid people and there are stupid people, but to make mistakes of the magnitude of yours on such a completely consistent basis requires intention, planning and forethought. Or else you really are that abysmally stupid.

Great religious allegory Bullwinkle!!! Very entertaining. And it makes me think that Davey Jones -- who is in charge of your "excess heat locker" down there where the oceans ate all the warming is MUCH smarter than rocks. All of SUDDEN, on it's OWN, the oceans SUDDENLY started to get an appetite and dine on excess surface heat.. How anthropomorphic of you to notice.

Unfortunately for your "excuse" of oceans eating the warming, it's been EATING at the same rate or MORE since the 60's and no evidence to support the TIMING of the pause UNLESS you start to accept the rather long equalization times implied by these immense storage mechanisms. Hasn't been a part of the Warmer bible until recently. And IF the oceans are consuming that much heat, then the Magic Multipliers and most of IPCC energy balance calculations are WAAAAAY The FUCK off and need to be revise to show the NEGATIVE feedbacks that dominate the Earth's climate. .