David_42
Registered Democrat.
- Aug 9, 2015
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The Antarctic currently contributes a small amount to sea level rise. That could change if fossil-fuel emissions continue unchecked. (Well no shit.)
Just How Much Could the Sea Rise from Burning Fossil Fuels? A Lot.
Just How Much Could the Sea Rise from Burning Fossil Fuels? A Lot.
New York City would be swallowed by the ocean. Tokyo and Shanghai, too, would vanish.
Sea levels stand to rise by a staggering 164 feet (50 meters) or more if the world goes for broke on fossil fuels, burning all its attainable resources. That's because the Antarctic Ice Sheet would melt entirely from the warming caused by those emissions, concludes a study published Friday in Science Advances. The researchers say their paper offers the first long-term look at how carbon dioxide emissions from oil, coal, and natural gas would affect the entire ice sheet.
"If we don't stop dumping our waste CO2 into the sky, land that is now home to more than billion people will one day be underwater," says study co-author Ken Caldeira, senior scientist at Stanford University's Carnegie Institution for Science. (See an interactive map of the world if all the ice melted.)
There's a bright side, sort of: The full melt would take about 10,000 years. However, at least 100 feet of the swell, as modeled in the paper from scientists in Germany, California, and the United Kingdom, would occur in this millennium, at a rate of more than an inch per year—a harrowing prospect, given that many coastal areas are already seeing land loss and flooding from much more modest sea level increases.
To put it bluntly, if we burn it all, we melt it all.
Ricarda Winkelmann, scientist at Potsdam University
The study highlights the importance of the international aim to prevent global warming beyond 2°C (3.6°F) over pre-industrial levels, a goal thatsome scientists say is already unrealistic. Meeting that target, the new paper says, would keep Antarctic melting in check, limiting the attendant sea level rise to two meters.
Blowing past that threshold, on the other hand, would stoke the disintegration of the entire ice sheet. Its potential to raise sea levels "far exceeds all other possible contributions" from melting elsewhere, including the Greenland Ice Sheet, the researchers say.