Statistikhengst
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Politico reported a while back that the Ohio Governor will announce tomorrow, July 21st, 2015 from his Alma Mater, Ohio State University, in Columbus, OH.
This will make Gov. Kasich the 21st officially declared major candidate of either party and the 16th officially declared Republican candidate - for President - in 2016.
With so many names, and to help clear up the clutter, here is a handy table to help keep track of who, when and where:
The header-column with the asterisk (*) represents the number of days before the Presidential election on November 8th, 2016, that the candidate announced. For instance, neurosurgeon Ben Carson announced his bid for the presidency on May 4th of this year, 554 days before the GE in 2016.
I hope that table is helpful to you.
To my knowledge, there is only one candidate remaining to announce: longshot candidate, former VA Gov. Jim Gilmore, who is planning to announce in "early August". He made it clear in a conversation with Politico PLAYBOOK that he is not expecting to participate in the first GOP debate, set for August, in Cleveland, OH. This is logical, since he has not really been polled and therefore statistically cannot be a GOP front-runner, one of the 10 that FOX will pick for the first debate.
And now, some Ohio trivia, just for fun:
Ohio is one of the two most "president-rich" states in our Union, having sent 8 men to the White-House:
William H. Harrison (1841-1841)**
Ulysses S. Grant (1869-1877)
Rutherford B. Hayes (1877-1881)
James Garfield (1881-1881)**
Benjamin Harrison, grandson of William H. Harrison (1889-1893)
William McKinley (1897-1901)**
William H. Taft (1909-1913)
Warren Harding (1921-1923)**
That makes for 8 presidents who came from the Buckeye State. Four of them died in office (see: **) and two of them, most unfortunately, were assassinated (Garfield, McKinley). William H. Harrison died one month into office: he got a terrible cold on the day he gave his inaugural speech. Warren Harding (who has the most unique middle name in all of presidential history: Gamaliel) died of a coronary while on a train in 1923. Harding also holds the record for the largest NPV winning margin in our history: +26.23%, over James Cox, who was also from Ohio, in 1920.
All 8 of them were Republicans and 7 of those 8 served between 1869-1913. Some historians even like to call the "Gilded Age" the "Ohio Years".
Virginia is the other state, having sent 7 men to the White House. William H. Harrison was actually born in Virginia, but openly claimed Ohio as his home state.
It's been a while since Ohio has fielded a truly serious candidate for President. Former Rep. John Kucinich tried for the DEM nomination in 2008, but he was less than a blip on a screen and was not considered a serious candidate in any way. Former astronaut and Democratic Senator John Glenn was considered for the DEM VP-slot more than once and he toyed with presidential aspirations, but nothing ever happened. He was one of Ohio's longest serving Senators, btw.
Ohio Gov. James Rhodes was a Republican presidential candidate in 1968 and got 55 delegates (before switches) at the RNC that year.
The last serious presidential candidate from Ohio, to the best of my knowledge, was Republican Senator Robert A. Taft, who received a bevy of delegates on all 6 ballots at the 1940 RNC, somewhat less delegates on two of three ballots at the 1948 RNC, but considerably more in 1952. He was the only real challenge to IKE in that year. In between, Ohio Governor John Bricker was a presidential candidate in 1944. He got 1 delegate and ended up being Thomas Dewey's running mate. Therefore, we have to go back about 64 years in time to find a serious presidential candidate from Ohio, one who was strong in the running and actually accrued a competitive amount of delegates at a national convention.
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So, maybe the time is ripe for a serious presidential contender from Ohio. Surely Ohio is one of the 4 states that the GOP wants back the most, after having lost it in both 2008 and 2012. And the RNC is going to be in Cleveland in 2016, also a sign that the GOP wants this "must-win" state back. As to the timing of Gov. Kasich's announcement, I guess it depends on your perspective whether he is announcing too late or not. With presidential electoral politics turning into an almost 2-year-long preparation cycle, who know. But I do think he is going to be a very interesting addition to the GOP field.
This will make Gov. Kasich the 21st officially declared major candidate of either party and the 16th officially declared Republican candidate - for President - in 2016.
With so many names, and to help clear up the clutter, here is a handy table to help keep track of who, when and where:
The header-column with the asterisk (*) represents the number of days before the Presidential election on November 8th, 2016, that the candidate announced. For instance, neurosurgeon Ben Carson announced his bid for the presidency on May 4th of this year, 554 days before the GE in 2016.
I hope that table is helpful to you.
To my knowledge, there is only one candidate remaining to announce: longshot candidate, former VA Gov. Jim Gilmore, who is planning to announce in "early August". He made it clear in a conversation with Politico PLAYBOOK that he is not expecting to participate in the first GOP debate, set for August, in Cleveland, OH. This is logical, since he has not really been polled and therefore statistically cannot be a GOP front-runner, one of the 10 that FOX will pick for the first debate.
And now, some Ohio trivia, just for fun:
Ohio is one of the two most "president-rich" states in our Union, having sent 8 men to the White-House:
William H. Harrison (1841-1841)**
Ulysses S. Grant (1869-1877)
Rutherford B. Hayes (1877-1881)
James Garfield (1881-1881)**
Benjamin Harrison, grandson of William H. Harrison (1889-1893)
William McKinley (1897-1901)**
William H. Taft (1909-1913)
Warren Harding (1921-1923)**
That makes for 8 presidents who came from the Buckeye State. Four of them died in office (see: **) and two of them, most unfortunately, were assassinated (Garfield, McKinley). William H. Harrison died one month into office: he got a terrible cold on the day he gave his inaugural speech. Warren Harding (who has the most unique middle name in all of presidential history: Gamaliel) died of a coronary while on a train in 1923. Harding also holds the record for the largest NPV winning margin in our history: +26.23%, over James Cox, who was also from Ohio, in 1920.
All 8 of them were Republicans and 7 of those 8 served between 1869-1913. Some historians even like to call the "Gilded Age" the "Ohio Years".
Virginia is the other state, having sent 7 men to the White House. William H. Harrison was actually born in Virginia, but openly claimed Ohio as his home state.
It's been a while since Ohio has fielded a truly serious candidate for President. Former Rep. John Kucinich tried for the DEM nomination in 2008, but he was less than a blip on a screen and was not considered a serious candidate in any way. Former astronaut and Democratic Senator John Glenn was considered for the DEM VP-slot more than once and he toyed with presidential aspirations, but nothing ever happened. He was one of Ohio's longest serving Senators, btw.
Ohio Gov. James Rhodes was a Republican presidential candidate in 1968 and got 55 delegates (before switches) at the RNC that year.
The last serious presidential candidate from Ohio, to the best of my knowledge, was Republican Senator Robert A. Taft, who received a bevy of delegates on all 6 ballots at the 1940 RNC, somewhat less delegates on two of three ballots at the 1948 RNC, but considerably more in 1952. He was the only real challenge to IKE in that year. In between, Ohio Governor John Bricker was a presidential candidate in 1944. He got 1 delegate and ended up being Thomas Dewey's running mate. Therefore, we have to go back about 64 years in time to find a serious presidential candidate from Ohio, one who was strong in the running and actually accrued a competitive amount of delegates at a national convention.
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So, maybe the time is ripe for a serious presidential contender from Ohio. Surely Ohio is one of the 4 states that the GOP wants back the most, after having lost it in both 2008 and 2012. And the RNC is going to be in Cleveland in 2016, also a sign that the GOP wants this "must-win" state back. As to the timing of Gov. Kasich's announcement, I guess it depends on your perspective whether he is announcing too late or not. With presidential electoral politics turning into an almost 2-year-long preparation cycle, who know. But I do think he is going to be a very interesting addition to the GOP field.
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