It's the Sun

[westwall]

Here is yet another nail in the coffin of those who claim the Sun is only responsible for 30%of the warmth the Earth enjoys.


Abstract

The regional climate correlation within the Northern Hemisphere in the cold/dry mid-Younger Dryas event (YD) remains elusive. A key to unraveling this issue is sufficient knowledge of the detailed climate variability at the low latitudes. Here we present a high-resolution (3-yr) δ18O record of an annually laminated stalagmite from central China that reveals a detailed Asian monsoon (AM) history from 13.36 to 10.99 ka. The YD in this record is expressed as three phases, characterized by gradual onsets but rapid ends. During the mid-YD, the AM variability exhibited an increasing trend superimposed by three centennial oscillations, well-correlated to changes in Greenland temperatures. These warming/wetting fluctuations show a periodicity of ~ 200 yr, generally in agreement with centennial changes in cosmogenic nuclides indicated by the 10Be flux from the Greenland ice. This relationship implies that centennial-scale climate changes during the mid-YD are probably caused by solar output and rapidly transported over broad regions through atmosphere reorganization.



Centennial-scale Asian monsoon variability during the mid-Younger Dryas from Qingtian Cave, central China

 

[Old Rocks]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hasn't increased in solar flex since 1955.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

There has been no warming since 1998. Even your buddies now admit it.

 

[ScienceRocks]

This dog don't hunt

 

[orogenicman]

Here is yet another nail in the coffin of those who claim the Sun is only responsible for 30%of the warmth the Earth enjoys.


Abstract

The regional climate correlation within the Northern Hemisphere in the cold/dry mid-Younger Dryas event (YD) remains elusive. A key to unraveling this issue is sufficient knowledge of the detailed climate variability at the low latitudes. Here we present a high-resolution (3-yr) δ18O record of an annually laminated stalagmite from central China that reveals a detailed Asian monsoon (AM) history from 13.36 to 10.99 ka. The YD in this record is expressed as three phases, characterized by gradual onsets but rapid ends. During the mid-YD, the AM variability exhibited an increasing trend superimposed by three centennial oscillations, well-correlated to changes in Greenland temperatures. These warming/wetting fluctuations show a periodicity of ~ 200 yr, generally in agreement with centennial changes in cosmogenic nuclides indicated by the 10Be flux from the Greenland ice. This relationship implies that centennial-scale climate changes during the mid-YD are probably caused by solar output and rapidly transported over broad regions through atmosphere reorganization.



Centennial-scale Asian monsoon variability during the mid-Younger Dryas from Qingtian Cave, central China

But we are not currently in anything like the Younger Dryas, and nothing like that is remotely going on with the sun today. So, erm, what was your point, again?

 

[orogenicman]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

There has been no warming since 1998. Even your buddies now admit it.

Wrong. The warming has continued unabated. Why do I say this? Because over 80% of the warming is occurring in the ocean, and this so-called hiatus you folks are so eager to promote, is occurring over land. The oceans are still heating up. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

 

[polarbear]

Wrong. The warming has continued unabated. Why do I say this? Because over 80% of the warming is occurring in the ocean, and this so-called hiatus you folks are so eager to promote, is occurring over land. The oceans are still heating up. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Did you pull that out of your own asshole or from one of the blogs that spoon feed idiots like you ?
There are now over 3000 argo float sensors that have been gathering data which clearly shows that the oceans have not been warming up :


Let me google that for you

Argo deployments began in 2000 and by November 2007 the array is 100% complete. Today's tally offloats is shown in the figure above. While the Argo array is currently complete at 3000 floats, to be maintained at that level, national commitments need to provide about 800 floats per year. Additionally, Argo continues to work toward global ocean coverage.

Dr. Kevin Trenberth said this in one of the Climategate emails:

“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
​

Using the ARGO ocean buoy data from Josh Willis, Knox and Douglass still can’t find that missing heat in this paper published in the International Journal of Geosciences, currently in press here.

 

[bripat9643]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

There has been no warming since 1998. Even your buddies now admit it.

Wrong. The warming has continued unabated. Why do I say this? Because over 80% of the warming is occurring in the ocean, and this so-called hiatus you folks are so eager to promote, is occurring over land. The oceans are still heating up. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

So the warming is continuing even though we have no tangible evidence of it?

Warmist cult members are the most gullible fools on the planet.

 

[IanC]

Only sunlight can penetrate the oceans, IR back radiation is stopped at the first millimeter.

The Sun's activity was especially high in the 80's and 90's.

Do we know what the 'break even' level of solar activity is? Glaciers were melting at levels much lower than recent ones.

 

[FA_Q2]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

I don’t believe that is the ‘current’ situation though. It appears that was the situation last decade but now…

Where has the warming gone?

That is the core problem with AGW, it cannot make predictions. I don’t disregard the data but it is really meaningless as far as making policy if the only prediction that can be made is that we will either all be dead in 50 years or we won’t notice anything has changed.

 

[orogenicman]

Wrong. The warming has continued unabated. Why do I say this? Because over 80% of the warming is occurring in the ocean, and this so-called hiatus you folks are so eager to promote, is occurring over land. The oceans are still heating up. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Did you pull that out of your own asshole or from one of the blogs that spoon feed idiots like you ?
There are now over 3000 argo float sensors that have been gathering data which clearly shows that the oceans have not been warming up :


Let me google that for you

Argo deployments began in 2000 and by November 2007 the array is 100% complete. Today's tally offloats is shown in the figure above. While the Argo array is currently complete at 3000 floats, to be maintained at that level, national commitments need to provide about 800 floats per year. Additionally, Argo continues to work toward global ocean coverage.

Dr. Kevin Trenberth said this in one of the Climategate emails:

“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
​

Using the ARGO ocean buoy data from Josh Willis, Knox and Douglass still can’t find that missing heat in this paper published in the International Journal of Geosciences, currently in press here.

You are citing a climategate e-mail as your evidence? REALLY? Wow, how desperate is that?

Let me help you:

 

[orogenicman]

There has been no warming since 1998. Even your buddies now admit it.

Wrong. The warming has continued unabated. Why do I say this? Because over 80% of the warming is occurring in the ocean, and this so-called hiatus you folks are so eager to promote, is occurring over land. The oceans are still heating up. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

So the warming is continuing even though we have no tangible evidence of it?

Warmist cult members are the most gullible fools on the planet.

Of course there is tangible evidence. See the graph I posted above.

 

[orogenicman]

Only sunlight can penetrate the oceans, IR back radiation is stopped at the first millimeter.

Are you suggesting that water's heat capacity has no effect on its ability to absorb energy from the sun?

The Sun's activity was especially high in the 80's and 90's.

OMG! You did not just say that.

Where?

Do we know what the 'break even' level of solar activity is?

What do you mean by break even level?

Glaciers were melting at levels much lower than recent ones.

Erm, what?

 

[orogenicman]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

I don’t believe that is the ‘current’ situation though. It appears that was the situation last decade but now…

Where has the warming gone?

That is the core problem with AGW, it cannot make predictions. I don’t disregard the data but it is really meaningless as far as making policy if the only prediction that can be made is that we will either all be dead in 50 years or we won’t notice anything has changed.

Even if you set aside AGW, the acidification of the oceans due to billions of tons per year of CO2 being released into the atmosphere will ensure that we will notice. It's already happening.

 

[FA_Q2]

Now just who is stating that the sun is only responsible for 30% of the surface temperature of the Earth? Methinks you just created a strawman, noting that you did not link to any source for your statement.

Interesting proxies, although most articles I have seen on the Younger Dryas put the blame on an influx of freshwater that shut down the normal oceanic circulation.

In either case, what does this have to do with the present situation, where we have a decline in solar flux and a continueing increase in the global temperature?

I don’t believe that is the ‘current’ situation though. It appears that was the situation last decade but now…

Where has the warming gone?

That is the core problem with AGW, it cannot make predictions. I don’t disregard the data but it is really meaningless as far as making policy if the only prediction that can be made is that we will either all be dead in 50 years or we won’t notice anything has changed.

Even if you set aside AGW, the acidification of the oceans due to billions of tons per year of CO2 being released into the atmosphere will ensure that we will notice. It's already happening.

From what I have read, we have an astounding 75 year time horizon before that acidification has any real impact on the ecology.

That does not justify the hysteria one iota. Further, damaging the economy to the extent that many of the alarmists calls for would not help un in that case. We need a strong economy to fund the research and the infrastructure that will be required to deal with this problem if we are ever to do so.

Another fact is that rising economies like China are not going to take this problem on and that is a fact. Sure, they pay a lot of lip service to it BUT when it comes down to actions, they are severely lacking. We cannot control the worlds CO2 emissions.

 

[flacaltenn]

Hasn't increased in solar flex since 1955.

Not entirely true.. Most of the 1.1W/M2 SOLAR forcing was between 1750 and 1965 or so, but with the recent revelations that the "heat is hiding", we suddenly get climate science that doesn't EXPECT instant gratification.. Like those silly yr to yr correlations of CO2 to temp..

The realization that Earth takes a long while to REASSUME thermal equilibrium is a good thing for climate science. But it ALSO MEANS that we shouldn't be looking for CONTEMPORARY forcing functions. And forcings that occurred 50 or 100 yrs ago, are probably still in play...

As for the OP -- I'd be happy if the IPCC corrected their forcing chart from 1750 to 200X to EVEN SHOW a 30% solar contribution.. SOMEHOW -- they've lied that number into something less than 10%. Tis 'bout to unravel --- me thinks..

 

[flacaltenn]

Only sunlight can penetrate the oceans, IR back radiation is stopped at the first millimeter.

Are you suggesting that water's heat capacity has no effect on its ability to absorb energy from the sun?

The Sun's activity was especially high in the 80's and 90's.

OMG! You did not just say that.

Where?

Do we know what the 'break even' level of solar activity is?

What do you mean by break even level?

Glaciers were melting at levels much lower than recent ones.

Erm, what?

Did your RationalWiki tell you to divert discussions about Total Solar Insolation (TSI) to discuss only "sunspot numbers"?? Sunspot numbers are NOT the measurement of radiative forcing.. THIS IS ---

[/IMG]

It is TAUGHT somewhere in AGW Sunday School to drag out sunspot number charts whenever anyone mentions Solar Irradiation. They REALLY REALLY don't want folks to look at the ACTUAL TOTAL solar power chart..


And we've only had REALTIME sats up for about 15 years to really study it.. Of course TSI could stay the SAME and a TEENSY TINY shift in the SPECTRUM of that radiation COULD modulate the GreenHouse window and thow all calculations into the shredder..

We need many more sun cycles to observe FROM SPACE and even BEGIN to rule out all of the possible shifts in radiative forcing..

 

[orogenicman]

You said nothing about radiative forcing. You said solar activity, and sunspots certainly are an important measure of solar activity.

Here is what you are looking for:

And this one:

Solar activity over the past 11,000 years.

So no, the sun is not responsible for the current global warming.

 

[westwall]

Wrong. The warming has continued unabated. Why do I say this? Because over 80% of the warming is occurring in the ocean, and this so-called hiatus you folks are so eager to promote, is occurring over land. The oceans are still heating up. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

Did you pull that out of your own asshole or from one of the blogs that spoon feed idiots like you ?
There are now over 3000 argo float sensors that have been gathering data which clearly shows that the oceans have not been warming up :


Let me google that for you

Dr. Kevin Trenberth said this in one of the Climategate emails:

“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.”
​

Using the ARGO ocean buoy data from Josh Willis, Knox and Douglass still can’t find that missing heat in this paper published in the International Journal of Geosciences, currently in press here.

You are citing a climategate e-mail as your evidence? REALLY? Wow, how desperate is that?

Let me help you:

Here's the deal when you are dealing with a scientist. If it can't be measured....it ain't real. Your graphs are really nice and would make excellent toilet paper because that's about how useful they are.