It looks like the dollar is losing value

[Mini 14]

Well if part of the failure is intentional the controllers are out of our reach. So you do realize what is going to happen next?
And why does it always have toi be in October? That happens to be my birthday.

THIS October is the perfect storm. No way they let this opportunity pass them by.

And yes, I realize what is coming next. I've been preparing for a couple of years, and the government is going to try and stop us all with the $600 allowance on 1099s next year. Thank GOD I've finished the majority of my conversions, and am absolutely LOVING silver the past few months!

Well you will love this
.._...|..__________ __________, , )
....../ `---___________---- _____|] ....
...../_==o;;;;;;;;__ _____.:/
.....), ---.(_(__) /
....// (..) ),
...//___//
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCwf5pzz8Kc&feature=sub]YouTube - Can Silver Sustain its Rally?[/ame]

I agree with him that $25 by the end of the year is a very real possibility.

And I ordered 30 of these on Friday (Daniel Defense DDXV, but the ones I ordered have the quad rail)....we'll hold onto 10 of them to see what happens with the elections/October, and 12 are already sold:

 

[bigrebnc1775]

THIS October is the perfect storm. No way they let this opportunity pass them by.

And yes, I realize what is coming next. I've been preparing for a couple of years, and the government is going to try and stop us all with the $600 allowance on 1099s next year. Thank GOD I've finished the majority of my conversions, and am absolutely LOVING silver the past few months!

Well you will love this
.._...|..__________ __________, , )
....../ `---___________---- _____|] ....
...../_==o;;;;;;;;__ _____.:/
.....), ---.(_(__) /
....// (..) ),
...//___//
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCwf5pzz8Kc&feature=sub]YouTube - Can Silver Sustain its Rally?[/ame]

I agree with him that $25 by the end of the year is a very real possibility.

And I ordered 30 of these on Friday (Daniel Defense DDXV, but the ones I ordered have the quad rail)....we'll hold onto 10 of them to see what happens with the elections/October, and 12 are already sold:

Don't waste your money. Sooner or later those weekend warrior who bought those high price toys will have to decide to starve to death start robbing or sale those weapons. They can be bought by those who have prepared dirt cheap. Buy a good cheap surplus and a good stock of ammo with enough food to last a few months. ANd watch the weekend warrior come begging to trade.

 

[william the wie]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

William I am not as astute to the market as I would like to be. The mechanics of the system and the complexity of it is hard to understand. All I know is that something is not right and we are heading in the wrong direction.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

from 2009
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pTkTdAuKBo&feature=related]YouTube - the coming dollar devaluation , Obama to do like Roosevelt FDR[/ame]

 

[antagon]

i see the dollar's weakness as a positive trend for the country. i don't see a catatonic currency crisis on the horizon either.

 

[william the wie]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

William I am not as astute to the market as I would like to be. The mechanics of the system and the complexity of it is hard to understand. All I know is that something is not right and we are heading in the wrong direction.

Not your job that's why literal rocket scientists and Nobel Prize winners are employed on Wall street to call turns. Minsky moments to use the correct technical term are a result of improper governance that does not conform to Maxwell's laws of mechanical governance. I'm not joking about that either. Fractal geometry and Chaos are also used and for all I know Lotfi Zadeh's fuzzy logic. This is seriously difficult math as in Mandelbrot who developed fractal geometry doesn't think he understands Chaos theory well enough to explain it. But two old standbys will usually see you right:

What you don't understand may kill you.

Keep the biggest safety margin possible because you will be wrong.

 

[loosecannon]

i see the dollar's weakness as a positive trend for the country. i don't see a catatonic currency crisis on the horizon either.

That is the standard wisdom. I don't really trust that our standard wisdom is correct. If you have serious imbalances things can go wrong, and I believe we have serious imbalances.

There seems to be a sense among many that if inflation begins it could snowball making our debt service soar while growth remains stagnant.

I can't know if this is true. But it might be. What I read about deflation is that QE works to save the banks but it does nothing to stimulate growth in the consumer economy.

The Fed is deeply divided.

 

[antagon]

optimism is not the standard wisdom in the US during any kind of economic turmoil. i think that the standard wisdom is to panic about a weak dollar because weak is supposed to be bad because it's bad in fights and stuff. i think those hoping that the US, obama, capitalism, stimulus, monetization and fiat would have taken an asskicking worthy of an i told you so round up those who hope to be taken seriously with any paranoia about hyperinflation.

the fed is divided over nuance within bounds of reason, not buying up guns and silver. they were concerned about the failure of QE to reverse the money supply shrinkage, but now is probably when they should check their brakes.

all that said, there are the anomalous imbalances you speak of. so far, these have been just as insulated from the wider economy as all of that easing.

 

[antagon]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

William I am not as astute to the market as I would like to be. The mechanics of the system and the complexity of it is hard to understand. All I know is that something is not right and we are heading in the wrong direction.

Not your job that's why literal rocket scientists and Nobel Prize winners are employed on Wall street to call turns. Minsky moments to use the correct technical term are a result of improper governance that does not conform to Maxwell's laws of mechanical governance. I'm not joking about that either. Fractal geometry and Chaos are also used and for all I know Lotfi Zadeh's fuzzy logic. This is seriously difficult math as in Mandelbrot who developed fractal geometry doesn't think he understands Chaos theory well enough to explain it. But two old standbys will usually see you right:

What you don't understand may kill you.

Keep the biggest safety margin possible because you will be wrong.

i endorse holistics

 

[william the wie]

There's another $5T of wealth shrinkage on the way in regards to housing and 2-4 T in the equities market. Bonds and commercial Real Estate at least another 9T of shrinkage left to go. Without UEI being tied to inflation QE II will crush the poor.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

There's another $5T of wealth shrinkage on the way in regards to housing and 2-4 T in the equities market. Bonds and commercial Real Estate at least another 9T of shrinkage left to go. Without UEI being tied to inflation QE II will crush the poor.

Lets not forget about the commercial Real Estate that hammer hasn't hit yet.

 

[loosecannon]

There's another $5T of wealth shrinkage on the way in regards to housing and 2-4 T in the equities market. Bonds and commercial Real Estate at least another 9T of shrinkage left to go. Without UEI being tied to inflation QE II will crush the poor.

How firm are you on those predictions? For a start just because we have an imbalance doesn't mean it will correct in the current recession. In fact since Greenspan took the helm I don't think there have really been meaningful corrections attendant to recessions.

And isn't there room for things to simply proceed according to some other plan, like inflating another round of bubbles? Or couldn't inflation still save the housing markets?

It has happened before.

 

[Toro]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

William

That has been said for awhile. Why do you think it will happen over the next 12 months? I don't know, you might be right. I'm just enquiring about your reasoning.

 

[Douger]

The dollar ? Hahahahahaha.
That's been history for almost 6 years.

 

[loosecannon]

The bond vigilantes tried to kill Greece, and Spain, and Ireland and so far no luck. And IMO from my perspective many of them seemed pretty damned determined.

Hell Iceland is down but not out.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

As I said we are heading in the wrong direction

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNOuuhpYBEg&feature=grec_index]YouTube - DOLLAR COLLAPSE[/ame]

 

[william the wie]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

William

That has been said for awhile. Why do you think it will happen over the next 12 months? I don't know, you might be right. I'm just enquiring about your reasoning.

The rush into junk bonds here is really picking up speed, insolvency at the state level is becoming a bigger problem (remember the mantra short treasuries and go long munies?) and the worries about EU and Japanese insolvency. I estimate only a 20% probability per year of blow up for each of those three cases or basically a coin flip that none will pop. However there are all sorts of other minor probabilities of a credit crisis that will trash the US bond market: gridlock in DC, a major oil find that destabilizes the ME and Latin America and so on for a 3 to 1 odds that way.

So what happens if junk bonds, munis, Japan and the EU straighten out? There will be a flight from safety and treasuries will sink lower over the next year causing a funding crisis. That is the same cause I am imputing to an external crisis: a sharp decrease in rates followed within weeks by a flight from safety towards higher returns. A series of recoverable crises in rapid succession is the only way to maintain current rates without de facto devaluation and I don't see that being possible. But I will assign lucky and smart at the Fed a probability of 5% for odds of 19 to 1 that there will be a bond crash in the next year. Being lucky and smart only works indefinitely in movies.

 

[william the wie]

The bond vigilantes tried to kill Greece, and Spain, and Ireland and so far no luck. And IMO from my perspective many of them seemed pretty damned determined.

Hell Iceland is down but not out.

Currency collapse is another way out but that also causes the collapse of the bond market.

 

[antagon]

The bond vigilantes will strike within the year and interest rates will rise along with the cost of imports.

William

That has been said for awhile. Why do you think it will happen over the next 12 months? I don't know, you might be right. I'm just enquiring about your reasoning.

The rush into junk bonds here is really picking up speed, insolvency at the state level is becoming a bigger problem (remember the mantra short treasuries and go long munies?) and the worries about EU and Japanese insolvency. I estimate only a 20% probability per year of blow up for each of those three cases or basically a coin flip that none will pop. However there are all sorts of other minor probabilities of a credit crisis that will trash the US bond market: gridlock in DC, a major oil find that destabilizes the ME and Latin America and so on for a 3 to 1 odds that way.

So what happens if junk bonds, munis, Japan and the EU straighten out? There will be a flight from safety and treasuries will sink lower over the next year causing a funding crisis. That is the same cause I am imputing to an external crisis: a sharp decrease in rates followed within weeks by a flight from safety towards higher returns. A series of recoverable crises in rapid succession is the only way to maintain current rates without de facto devaluation and I don't see that being possible. But I will assign lucky and smart at the Fed a probability of 5% for odds of 19 to 1 that there will be a bond crash in the next year. Being lucky and smart only works indefinitely in movies.

this wreaks of hackjobs who think they have an mathematical angle on the sportsbooks. not credible.