Recession Ended June 2009

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Toro, Sep 20, 2010.

  1. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    According the official daters of the business cycle, the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.

    Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

    That doesn't mean the economy is great, or has recovered to where it was before the recession, or that we aren't going to slip into another recession. It just means that the recession technically ended last summer.
     
  2. PLYMCO_PILGRIM
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    PLYMCO_PILGRIM Gold Member

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    The technical recession may have ended but the psychological recession (the one in the minds of the populace) is still alive and strong and this feeling is driven by the unemployment numbers staying way above average at over 9%.

    Like you said it doesn't mean we wont do the dreaded "double dip" but hopefully we dont.
     
  3. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    i think it makes the term double dip improper.
     
  4. PLYMCO_PILGRIM
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    PLYMCO_PILGRIM Gold Member

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    If we have another recession in the next few years you can still call it a double dip unless we get more than 2 quaters of positive growth between them. I think thats how the definition works anyway.

    Did we have positive growth in the last 2 quaters.....it doesn't feel like it but my first post might explain my impressions ;).
     
  5. Charles_Main
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    Charles_Main AR15 Owner

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    [​IMG]

    Which direction are things going in again? Sure looks like for awhile now the rate of GDP growth has been shrinking. Not yet Negative but clearly not going in the right direction.

    By the strictest definition of the word recession they are correct. Funny though when bush was in office an we had positive but very slow growth. The left told us that you can not focus on GDP rate alone. That factors such as job growth, Wage growth, and consumer confidence had to be figured in.

    Today they want to focus only on the GDP and say look the recession is over.

    hmmmm
     
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    Last edited: Sep 20, 2010
  6. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    According to the NBER we had almost 5 Qs of positive growth so far.
     
  7. Charles_Main
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    Charles_Main AR15 Owner

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    Yep and in 4 of those months the rate growth Decreased as compared to the month before it. I ask again, is that "going in the right direction"

    If the trend line continues as it is in the graph on GDP I posted this next time it is reported, or the time after that. We will be in Negative growth again.
     
  8. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    This isn't the left or right speaking, it is the anal and apolitical NBER. (National Bureau of Economic Research)

    They are speaking in the most technical possible sense in making this pronouncement.
     
  9. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    no, its technically not a recession,by the very definition of word itself.


    We need a new 'word'....
     
  10. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    Qs, not months. Yes the inertia is negative while growth is still positive. But that is still misleading. The first 15-20 months of the recession were all characterized by wild corrections and over reactions.

    This moment is the calm after the storm when a new normal establishes itself.
     

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