Is this finally the economic collapse?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by hvactec, Aug 11, 2010.

  1. hvactec
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    hvactec VIP Member

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    FORTUNE -- The Great Depression. Wall Street in 1987. Japan in 1997. Point of economic collapse are generally crystal clear in the rear-view mirror. Professional politicians in Japan have been telling stories for 20 years as to why they can prevent economic stagnation. In the US, the storytelling started in 2007. All the while, stock market and real-estate prices have repeatedly rallied to lower-highs, then collapsed again, to lower-lows.

    Despite the many dissimilarities between Japan and the US, there is one similarity that continues to matter most in the risk management model my colleagues and I use at Hedgeye, our research firm -- debt as a percentage of GDP. Now that the US can't cut interest rates any lower, the only option left on the table is what the Fed just announced it would start doing -- buying Treasury debt. And that could lead the country to the brink of collapse: According to economists Carmen Reinhart & Ken Rogoff, whose views we share, crossing the 90% debt/GDP threshold is the equivalent of crossing the proverbial Rubicon of economic growth. It's a point from which it's almost impossible to return.

    On July 2nd, we cut both our Quarter 3 2010 and full year 2011 GDP estimates for the US to 1.7%. At the time, the consensus around US economic growth estimates was about 3%. Now we're starting to see both big brokerage analysts and the Federal Reserve gradually cut their GDP estimates, but not by enough. Even our estimate for 2011 is still too high.

    Growth slowing, both domestically and in China, is core to our bearish views on both the strength of the US Dollar and US equities. There will be a downward bias to our US growth estimates as long as debt-financed-deficit-spending continues to be the solution politicians and central bankers turn to as a fix to our financial crisis.

    Read more Is QE2 finally the economic collapse? - Aug. 11, 2010
     
  2. topspin
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    topspin BANNED

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    No
     
  3. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    It won't collapse.

    It will die by inches same as its been doing for the last 40 years.
     
  4. B. Kidd
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    B. Kidd Gold Member

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    At this pace, won't take 40 more years. It's dying by yards. I give it 5-7 more years, tops.
     
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  5. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I lean more to 10 years for disintegration of the current republic but economic collapse as in 1786 when tax farmers literally could not find people economically employed usually precedes political collapse. 7 years for economic collapse and 10 years for political reorganization is perhaps the same prediction.
     
  6. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    We have been in a continuing economic collapse for two years now. A little "bought" GDP does not mean that we were coming out of Depression. Buying a slightly positive GDP number and lying like hell about Unemployment does not a recovery make.
     
  7. topspin
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    topspin BANNED

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    The economy is growing. We have way more than 10 years ago and will have waymore in 10. Even the dumb people.
     
  8. Douger
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    Douger BANNED

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  9. Pepe
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    Pepe Senior Member

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    My best look forward suggest that the Empire has 36-60 months before even the densest of Sheeple comprehends that the Empire's Financial Ponzi scheme is in the throes of Collapse.

    That will be followed "Balkanization" or as WTW writes political reorganization.

    The only question remains is will it be peaceful or will it be violent?

    Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase, Highest since February

    ** Snippet **

    The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

    In the week ending Aug. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 484,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 482,000. The 4-week moving average was 473,500, an increase of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average of 459,250.
     
  10. Wry Catcher
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    Wry Catcher Platinum Member

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    The Henny Penny Polka crowd is all about doom and gloom, too bad they have no solutions to offer but to cut, cut, cut spending.
    It is the same refrain, the sky is falling, the sky is falling screamed by all the chicken hawks in the Republican/RW barnyard.
    But, what to cut? Never a word is spoken; but the same tune is played with a new refrain, cut taxes, cut taxes, cut taxes.
    Of course some want entitlements cut, social security and medicare; social programs are bad, war is good. Sounds somewhat like a novel I read long ago.
     

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