Iraq seeks sharp reduction in U.S. military role

I do not use polls, they are not proof of anything.

Wow. You just knocked down one of the foundations of scientific research. I guess that people should not be informed about the risks of smoking. After all, the silly link between smoking and cancer (probabilities) are based on sampling and statistics. They are based on a type of poll. I guess that we should ignore our voting system. Maybe 70 percent of people want a Republican to be president but that would just be a poll. What do they know? Statistical research, probability polls, and sample sizes studies should all be thrown away, since they don’t prove anything.

Man, quit grasping. It should even be obvious to you, and to those who want to think that the Iraqis want us to stay, that your arguments have been solidly knocked own. Now, in a last gasp, you want to do away with statistics.

I can point you to the Iraqi Government though and what THEY say. And that is all that matters.

Wow. So a government’s opinion should be of more value than the general public’s opinion. I thought that you supported the democratic notion that the opinion of the public should carry more weight.
 
I do not use polls, they are not proof of anything.

Incredible.

Next time you go to the doctor, for a blood test, make sure you tell him/her that you don't believe random sampling is valid. And that he should therefore take ALL your blood, not just a sample .



I can point you to the Iraqi Government though and what THEY say. And that is all that matters.


LOL

I never thought I'd hear a conservative say they'd believe what the government - a foreign government at that - says, over what numerous, dozens, of credible public opinion polls show.
 
Both of you retards are funny, none of what your comparing is the same. A vote is everyone not a random sample, drawing blood is not a random sample either. None of the things you list are effected by HOW someone words a question or where they happen to stick you to draw blood. NONE of them are random at all.

Opinion polls are bogus as hell. They can be made to say what ever the poll maker wants the poll to say and if they do not get the result they wanted, they just never tell anyone about the poll.

Do play on you two dipsticks.

As to Iraq the simple fact there is no way they could have conducted a real "random" poll, that they had to use biased people to "take" the poll, that they have no way to check the randomness, the methods used, the actually supposed people questioned.... getting the idea yet?
 
Both of you retards are funny, none of what your comparing is the same. A vote is everyone not a random sample, drawing blood is not a random sample either. None of the things you list are effected by HOW someone words a question or where they happen to stick you to draw blood. NONE of them are random at all.

Opinion polls are bogus as hell. They can be made to say what ever the poll maker wants the poll to say and if they do not get the result they wanted, they just never tell anyone about the poll.

Do play on you two dipsticks.

As to Iraq the simple fact there is no way they could have conducted a real "random" poll, that they had to use biased people to "take" the poll, that they have no way to check the randomness, the methods used, the actually supposed people questioned.... getting the idea yet?


Wow, you are incredibly stupid, uneducated, or both.

Random sampling is one of modern science and mathematics most basic foundations, for analyzing empirical data. And yes, your blood sample, is a RANDOM SAMPLE, you incredible moron. Did you actually think your blood chemistry is perfectly uniform throughout your body? LOL
 
Wow, you are incredibly stupid, uneducated, or both.

Random sampling is one of modern science and mathematics most basic foundations, for analyzing empirical data. And yes, your blood sample, is a RANDOM SAMPLE, you incredible moron. Did you actually think your blood chemistry is perfectly uniform throughout your body? LOL

Close enough that it does not matter one bit where you draw the blood from. But then your to stupid to understand that concept aren't you?

Blood is not even remotely the same as an OPINION poll. For one thing blood inside a body is pretty much the same everywhere in the body depending on if it is coming from or going to the heart and lungs. Opinion polls are never remotely the same.

Your blood sample is not dependent on where the blood is drawn, it is not dependent on how the person drawing it "feels", it has no change based on the political leanings of the host, there is no change based on what type of needle the drawer used, nor what type of tube it was stored in. When tested there is no fudge factor, no need to predict what percent chance if fred does the test or ralph does the test will the results be different. There is no worry that you might get a bad result because you couldn't draw it from any site on the body you needed to. No worry that someone outside the "sample" effected the test. No worry that you got a reasonable random sample, no need to do more than one drawing to check results of the single test.... on and on and on.

Do keep making moronic examples I am getting a good laugh.

Ohh and remind me how a vote is a random sample as well.
 
Close enough that it does not matter one bit where you draw the blood from. But then your to stupid to understand that concept aren't you?

Blood is not even remotely the same as an OPINION poll. For one thing blood inside a body is pretty much the same everywhere in the body depending on if it is coming from or going to the heart and lungs. Opinion polls are never remotely the same.

Your blood sample is not dependent on where the blood is drawn, it is not dependent on how the person drawing it "feels", it has no change based on the political leanings of the host, there is no change based on what type of needle the drawer used, nor what type of tube it was stored in. When tested there is no fudge factor, no need to predict what percent chance if fred does the test or ralph does the test will the results be different. There is no worry that you might get a bad result because you couldn't draw it from any site on the body you needed to. No worry that someone outside the "sample" effected the test. No worry that you got a reasonable random sample, no need to do more than one drawing to check results of the single test.... on and on and on.

Do keep making moronic examples I am getting a good laugh.

Ohh and remind me how a vote is a random sample as well.


I can't deal with this. My IQ drops everytime I read your ill-informed nonsense.

Virtually everything in your life, from the prescription drugs you take; to the car insurance you pay, to the blood samples you give, is based on statistical analysis of random samples.

But, if you don't believe in the scientific methodology of random sampling, feel free to tell your doctor that you won't take a medication, unless and until it has been tested on every single living american to determine its effectiveness.

But, of course you won't. Because the only time you'll ever complain about random sampling, is when it give you answers that deviate from your worship and your assumptions about your hero, George Bush.


:cuckoo:
 
I can't deal with this. My IQ drops everytime I read your ill-informed nonsense.

Virtually everything in your life, from the prescription drugs you take; to the car insurance you pay, to the blood samples you give, is based on statistical analysis of random samples.

But, if you don't believe in the scientific methodology of random sampling, feel free to tell your doctor that you won't take a medication, unless and until it has been tested on every single living american to determine its effectiveness.

But, of course you won't. Because the only time you'll ever complain about random sampling, is when it give you answers that deviate from your worship and your assumptions about your hero, George Bush.


:cuckoo:

OPINION polls are not random nor are they objective. They are designed and conducted by people with an agenda. That you keep comparing OPINION polls with other real samples is fucking hilarious. That you honestly think an OPINION poll is proof of anything is even a bigger laugh. An OPINION poll can and is designed with specific words and targets specific people for the results the surveyor hopes to get.

Now a very good company may actually try to limit the subjectivity and may honestly try to find a real random sample. But in the end OPINION polls are not worth the paper they are printed on. No matter how objective the source tries to make it. In fact they are getting worse. One of the standards for opinion polls in the US is phone polls. That alone skews the results all out of shape. People are turning to unlisted cell phones and certain people have NO phones. But keep on trying to claim an OPINION poll is proof and then remind me of the last time one actually was used in any manner as actual proof of anything and it worked. There is a reason they are not allowed in courts. There is a reason that every election in the last 10 years has failed to match "random" polls taken as people exit the voting areas. Anyone that honestly thinks they can talk to 1200 people in a country of 300 million and get an accurate opinion of that 300 million is to moronic to waste time with.

And the Iraq polls? They can not even pretend to have been objective. They fail every supposed criteria for just such a claim. There is no way the pollers got a random sample since they were restricted to specific areas, they had to use biased pollers with NO means to even check if they even talked to anyone. The list is endless why those polls are totally worthless.

The only thing those polls prove is retards like you will grasp at any straw to lie to the public and to mislead. And that you think people are to stupid to know it.
 
OPINION polls are not random nor are they objective. They are designed and conducted by people with an agenda. That you keep comparing OPINION polls with other real samples is fucking hilarious. That you honestly think an OPINION poll is proof of anything is even a bigger laugh. An OPINION poll can and is designed with specific words and targets specific people for the results the surveyor hopes to get.

Now a very good company may actually try to limit the subjectivity and may honestly try to find a real random sample. But in the end OPINION polls are not worth the paper they are printed on. No matter how objective the source tries to make it. In fact they are getting worse. One of the standards for opinion polls in the US is phone polls. That alone skews the results all out of shape. People are turning to unlisted cell phones and certain people have NO phones. But keep on trying to claim an OPINION poll is proof and then remind me of the last time one actually was used in any manner as actual proof of anything and it worked. There is a reason they are not allowed in courts. There is a reason that every election in the last 10 years has failed to match "random" polls taken as people exit the voting areas. Anyone that honestly thinks they can talk to 1200 people in a country of 300 million and get an accurate opinion of that 300 million is to moronic to waste time with.

Opinion polls do mean things. They are often objective and they may be conducted by people with no more of an agenda than to find out what people think. In the examples that have been presented, they mean that most Iraqis think that security is worse and that they want American soldiers to leave. It is as simple as that. Yes. Polls mean things. Otherwise they would not be used. They are used in a variety of fields for various purposes. They are used in sociology, they are used in science, and they are used in behavior health. They are used in advertising. They are used and valued in a wide variety of areas.

I understand about bias. I have an associate’s degree in psychology. I have taken college graduate level courses in statistics, testing, and measurement. You don’t need to lecture me on statistical fallacy and procedural bias. I know that telephone ownership may be an influencing variable. (like duh!) I think that based on the sample side, the use of multiple polls, and other factors, Iraqis, for the most Iraqis are uncomfortable with American soldiers in their country and want us to leave now or very soon.

And the Iraq polls? They can not even pretend to have been objective. They fail every supposed criteria for just such a claim. There is no way the pollers got a random sample since they were restricted to specific areas, they had to use biased pollers with NO means to even check if they even talked to anyone. The list is endless why those polls are totally worthless.

The only thing those polls prove is retards like you will grasp at any straw to lie to the public and to mislead. And that you think people are to stupid to know it.

Prove it. Show me a site that criticizes the Iraqi polls. Give me information beyond your own biased opinion about the poll. Where is it written that the sample size was too small? The notion was presented that Iraqi citizens may have been asked to help with the poll. That would have prevented non-Americans from getting into harm's way and perhaps influencing the responses. From what I have read, I think that the polls are very informative and valid. Please objectively prove otherwise with supporting objective information.
 
We aren't going to be out for a damn long time. We have built too many bases and now Bush is trying to get an agreement that will bind the next president to his failed war.

Just because the media quit printing anything about Iraq, doesn't mean the surge has worked. How many troops have we put into Baghdad to make that one city more secure? How would we hav to put in to secure the entire country of Iraq?

WASHINGTON — With its international mandate in Iraq set to expire in 11 months, the Bush administration will insist that the government in Baghdad give the United States broad authority to conduct combat operations and guarantee civilian contractors specific legal protections from Iraqi law, according to administration and military officials.

This emerging American negotiating position faces a potential buzz saw of opposition from Iraq, with its fragmented Parliament, weak central government and deep sensitivities about being seen as a dependent state, according to these officials.

At the same time, the administration faces opposition from Democrats at home, who warn that the agreements that the White House seeks would bind the next president by locking in Mr. Bush’s policies and a long-term military presence. (Add in there are also Repubs who don't want him signing away our rights for the future. But then he is ordained by his almighty..)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/world/middleeast/25military.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
 
Opinion polls do mean things. They are often objective and they may be conducted by people with no more of an agenda than to find out what people think. In the examples that have been presented, they mean that most Iraqis think that security is worse and that they want American soldiers to leave. It is as simple as that. Yes. Polls mean things. Otherwise they would not be used. They are used in a variety of fields for various purposes. They are used in sociology, they are used in science, and they are used in behavior health. They are used in advertising. They are used and valued in a wide variety of areas.

I understand about bias. I have an associate’s degree in psychology. I have taken college graduate level courses in statistics, testing, and measurement. You don’t need to lecture me on statistical fallacy and procedural bias. I know that telephone ownership may be an influencing variable. (like duh!) I think that based on the sample side, the use of multiple polls, and other factors, Iraqis, for the most Iraqis are uncomfortable with American soldiers in their country and want us to leave now or very soon.



Prove it. Show me a site that criticizes the Iraqi polls. Give me information beyond your own biased opinion about the poll. Where is it written that the sample size was too small? The notion was presented that Iraqi citizens may have been asked to help with the poll. That would have prevented non-Americans from getting into harm's way and perhaps influencing the responses. From what I have read, I think that the polls are very informative and valid. Please objectively prove otherwise with supporting objective information.

NO, you claim they are valid, you provide US with the standards the procedures and the questions, as well as how and where the polls were conducted. Any half way legit poll will provide that information.
 
We aren't going to be out for a damn long time. We have built too many bases and now Bush is trying to get an agreement that will bind the next president to his failed war.

Just because the media quit printing anything about Iraq, doesn't mean the surge has worked. How many troops have we put into Baghdad to make that one city more secure? How would we hav to put in to secure the entire country of Iraq?



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/world/middleeast/25military.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Your bullshit has already been addressed by the admin, they want SOFA not treaties that tie x number of troops to any one country or place. They want procedural decisions so that if we stay or leave it is all worked out how it happens.

Further nimrod, even if the president DID offer a treaty with specifics, it has to be approved by the Senate. So much for that lie ehh?
 
NO, you claim they are valid, you provide US with the standards the procedures and the questions, as well as how and where the polls were conducted. Any half way legit poll will provide that information.

Oh he who speaks with forked tongue. You just said, rather absolutely, that you do not use polls and that they are not proof of anything.

See http://usmessageboard.com/showpost.php?p=643858&postcount=60

Therefore, what is the use in my presenting such information? Yet, I’ll see what I can find out if only for my own curiosity and education.
 
Oh he who speaks with forked tongue. You just said, rather absolutely, that you do not use polls and that they are not proof of anything.

See http://usmessageboard.com/showpost.php?p=643858&postcount=60

Therefore, what is the use in my presenting such information? Yet, I’ll see what I can find out if only for my own curiosity and education.

Hey retard? You made a positive statement, YOU make the claim they are valid, YOU have to provide the proof of the validity. I do not have to prove they are NOT valid. Ever here the one about not proving a negative? Nimrod.

Again Tweedle DUM if the polls are even sort of legit, all the information should be readily available.
 
NO, you claim they are valid, you provide US with the standards the procedures and the questions, as well as how and where the polls were conducted.

Any half way legit poll will provide that information.

Outside of the resident trolls, you are quite literally the stupidest, least educated, least informed poster on this board. I really doubt you went to college, and I'm starting to doubt some of your other claims.

Mainstream polls by credible polling companies make their methodology available. Google is your friend

Iraq Poll: Note on Methodology

National Survey of Iraq

This survey was conducted for ABC News, USA Today, the BBC and ARD German TV by D3 Systems of Vienna, Va., and KA Research Ltd. of Istanbul. Interviews were conducted in person, in Arabic or Kurdish, among a random national sample of 2,212 Iraqis aged 18 and up from Feb. 25-March 5, 2007.

Four hundred and fifty-eight sampling points were distributed proportionate to population size in each of Iraq's 18 provinces, then in each of the 102 districts within the provinces, then by simple random sampling among Iraq's nearly 11,000 villages or neighborhoods, with urban/rural stratification at each stage.
Related Stories

Maps or grids were used to select random starting points within each sampling point, with household selection by random interval and within-household selection by the "next-birthday" method. An average of five interviews were conducted per sampling point. Three of the 458 sampling points were inaccessible for security reasons and were substituted with randomly selected replacements.

Interviews were conducted by 103 trained Iraqi interviewers with 27 supervisors. Just over half of interviews were back checked by supervisors -- 28 percent by direct observation, 14 percent by revisits and 10 percent by phone.

In addition to the national sample, oversamples were drawn in Anbar province, Sadr City, Basra city and Kirkuk city to allow for more reliable analysis in those areas. Population data came from 2005 estimates by the Iraq Ministry of Planning. The sample was weighted by sex, age, education, urban/rural status and population of province.

The survey had a contact rate of 90 percent and a cooperation rate of 62 percent for a net response rate of 56 percent. Including an estimated design effect of 1.51, the results have a margin of sampling error of 2.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

SUNNI/SHIITE (3/22/07) -- Given the attitudinal differences between Shiite and Sunni Arabs in Iraq, there's interest in the relative sizes of these two population groups. As far as we have been able to ascertain there is no official Iraqi estimate of the country's Sunni vs. Shiite Arab populations, and no single authoritative source of empirical data on the subject.

The most commonly cited estimate is an unsourced reference in the CIA World Factbook saying that 60-65 percent of Iraqis are Shiite Muslims, 15-20 percent Kurds and three percent non-Muslims. Though not explicitly stated, that leaves room for 12 to 22 percent Sunni Arabs.

This estimate may be derived from a 1988 book, "Iraq: a Country Study" produced by the Federal Research Division, Library of Congress. This book (pp. 80-81) characterizes data on ethnicity and religious doctrine in Iraq as "not absolutely reliable." It says, "Officially the government sets the number of Shias at 55 percent. In the 1980s knowledgeable observers began to question this figure, regarding it as low. …a more reasonable estimate of their number would seem to be between 60 and 65 percent." It adds, "…the Sunni Arabs…constitute a decided minority of only about 13 percent..." These data also are unsourced. The 60-65 percent Shiite estimate matches that in the CIA World Factbook; the 13 percent Sunni Arab estimate compares to the World Factbook's unstated range of 12 to 22 percent.

Recent survey data, including this poll, have had different results. This survey found 47 percent Shiite Arabs, 35 percent Sunni Arabs, 15 percent Kurds and three percent others.

D3 Systems reports that in its previous surveys it has seen Shiite Arabs in a range from the high 40s to low 50s, and Sunni Arabs in a range from the high 20s to mid-30s. The 35 percent Sunni Arab estimate in this poll is at the high end of its previous data, but within that range. This poll had more sampling points than any previous individual national study in Iraq by D3/KARL.

Other Iraq surveys are difficult to compare because they ask religious doctrine different ways, often reporting significant numbers of Muslims of unspecified doctrine, and use different weights, including, in some cases, weighting to a predetermined assumption of distribution by religious doctrine.

This poll is not weighted to religious doctrine; it's our view that this would be arbitrary and unsupportable in the absence of empirical data establishing appropriate weighting parameters. Experimentally, weighting these results to 30 or even 25 percent Sunni Arab would change numbers on which Sunni Arab and Shiite divisions are greatest, but the average change across all questions would be one or 1.5 percentage points (depending on the weight used), and none of the differences would alter any of the fundamental conclusions in our analysis.


http://abcnews.go.com/US/Story?id=2954886
 
Hey retard? You made a positive statement, YOU make the claim they are valid, YOU have to provide the proof of the validity. I do not have to prove they are NOT valid. Ever here the one about not proving a negative? Nimrod.

Again Tweedle DUM if the polls are even sort of legit, all the information should be readily available.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_03_07_iraqpollnew.pdf


The poll was conducted by D3 Systems for the BBC, ABC News, ARD German TV and USA Today.

This was not done by a secret nameless organization. If you are suspicious of D3 Systems, investigate it. Email the organization D3 and ask if it did such a poll.

More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq between 25 February and 5 March 2007.

This was not done in one small little biased village. More than 1800 people were questioned. You are presented with the exact dates on which the poll was conducted.

The margin of error is + or – 2.5%.

The organization is knowledgeable about statistical error.

Q1. Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

They present you with the exact question that was asked and the choices that were available. You are “allowed” to draw your own conclusion. There is no commentary given at the end of this poll sheet.

My conclusion: Even statisticians may disagree on the validity and reliability and professionalism of the same poll. Based, on my knowledge and experience, I think that this is a very sound poll.
 
Hey retard? You made a positive statement, YOU make the claim they are valid, YOU have to provide the proof of the validity. I do not have to prove they are NOT valid. Ever here the one about not proving a negative? Nimrod.

Again Tweedle DUM if the polls are even sort of legit, all the information should be readily available.

I was responding to RGS. Follow the thread. I won’t stoop to name-calling. I have too much class for that. Anyway, I posted my opinion of one of my favorite polls and my reasons for why I think it is good. You may disagree. I don’t care.

I like it. I agree with it. That is as far as I am going to go in defending it. I’m not going to spend my time contacting D3 for more detailed information and ask how the respondents were contacted (by telephone call, by door knocking, etc.), or on what time of day the questioning was done, or what the respondents were wearing. If you are curious, find out for yourself. Sometimes you can do so much to prove your point and the other side will keep demanding that you do more. The other side is never satisfied.
 
I was responding to RGS. Follow the thread. I won’t stoop to name-calling. I have too much class for that. Anyway, I posted my opinion of one of my favorite polls and my reasons for why I think it is good. You may disagree. I don’t care.

I like it. I agree with it. That is as far as I am going to go in defending it. I’m not going to spend my time contacting D3 for more detailed information and ask how the respondents were contacted (by telephone call, by door knocking, etc.), or on what time of day the questioning was done, or what the respondents were wearing. If you are curious, find out for yourself. Sometimes you can do so much to prove your point and the other side will keep demanding that you do more. The other side is never satisfied.

D3 seems like a pretty interesting organization.

http://d3.hh2.com/public/news.asp?News_ID=24
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_03_07_iraqpollnew.pdf


The poll was conducted by D3 Systems for the BBC, ABC News, ARD German TV and USA Today.

This was not done by a secret nameless organization. If you are suspicious of D3 Systems, investigate it. Email the organization D3 and ask if it did such a poll.

More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq between 25 February and 5 March 2007.

This was not done in one small little biased village. More than 1800 people were questioned. You are presented with the exact dates on which the poll was conducted.

The margin of error is + or – 2.5%.

The organization is knowledgeable about statistical error.

Q1. Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

They present you with the exact question that was asked and the choices that were available. You are “allowed” to draw your own conclusion. There is no commentary given at the end of this poll sheet.

My conclusion: Even statisticians may disagree on the validity and reliability and professionalism of the same poll. Based, on my knowledge and experience, I think that this is a very sound poll.

What validity does a poll taken almost one year ago, months BEFORE the surge that has pretty much quelled the violence, have to with Iraq today. Public opinions in Iraq, like just about everywhere, change constantly.

And regardless of what opinion polls may say or don't say, they don't have much to do with the formulation of policy in Iraq or here. It is irrelevant whether anyone agrees with the original invasion, agrees with our presence the last five years, whether the President cooked it all up to make up an excuse for invasion. We are going to be there for most of the rest of your lifetime or whenever the oil in the Persian Gulf dries up. Bush will be gone and private citizen.
 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_03_07_iraqpollnew.pdf


The poll was conducted by D3 Systems for the BBC, ABC News, ARD German TV and USA Today.

This was not done by a secret nameless organization. If you are suspicious of D3 Systems, investigate it. Email the organization D3 and ask if it did such a poll.

More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq between 25 February and 5 March 2007.

This was not done in one small little biased village. More than 1800 people were questioned. You are presented with the exact dates on which the poll was conducted.

The margin of error is + or – 2.5%.

The organization is knowledgeable about statistical error.

Q1. Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days? Would you say things are very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?

They present you with the exact question that was asked and the choices that were available. You are “allowed” to draw your own conclusion. There is no commentary given at the end of this poll sheet.

My conclusion: Even statisticians may disagree on the validity and reliability and professionalism of the same poll. Based, on my knowledge and experience, I think that this is a very sound poll.

More than 2,000 people were questioned in more than 450 neighbourhoods and villages across all 18 provinces of Iraq between 25 February and 5 March 2007.

This was not done in one small little biased village. More than 1800 people were questioned.

wait I am confused.. was it more than 2000 or just 1800? And again YOU must provide the evidence not I. Provide actual evidence what you have said is in fact true.

Provide the exact questions ask, the method used to determine who and where people were asked and who did the questioning. Provide the quality control that was used to ensure these people actually exist as well.
 

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