IPCC temp projections

Discussion in 'Environment' started by IanC, Jan 2, 2013.

  1. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    [​IMG]

    the pro-AGW crowd here keeps saying that their predictions are good, and if anything too conservative. does this include the IPCC temperature projections? they certainly seem exaggeratedly high in every edition of the IPCC so far. at least to me. can someone tell me how they consider these predictions are consistent with reality?
     
  2. PredFan
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    PredFan Gold Member

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    Man caused global warming is a scam, always has been.

    There are several telling signs:

    1. Name change. When they used to call it "Global Warming" it appeared for a brief moment that the temperature was dropping. They changed it to "Climate Change" to cover them whether the temoperature went up or down.

    2. The solution to "Climate Change" is Socialism. The rich countries giving money to the poor. That somehow fixes the climate.

    3. "The science is finished, there is a concensus."

    4. Demonization of any science that contradicts AGW.

    5. Ostracising of any scientists who is labeled a "Denier".

    6. Shennanigans among the movers and shakers of Climate Change Science.
     
  3. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    while I find that I agree with many of those points I do not agree that both sides calling the other side names is going to fix anything in the near future.
     
  4. Dubya
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    Dubya Senior Member

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    Stop the presses, a Denialista has figured out how to make a chart!

    Where is the source for the math on the global temperatrure change and posting a chart by Denialistas isn't a source?

    [​IMG]

    (46) ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

    (47) ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

    (48) ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

    This is NCDC data and it doesn't match your data on global temperature change from 1990.

    Notice when 2012 will be included, 19 of the past 20 years are the warmest on record, but you Denialistas continue to make claims like there has been no global warming in the past 16 years.

    Why wouldn't ice and snow around the world melt under those conditions?
     
  5. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    "Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

    Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation's icebox is getting even icier.

    That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

    Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that's so 20th Century.

    In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

    Widespread warming

    That's a "large value for a decade," the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in "The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska."

    The cooling is widespread -- holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes. It's most significant in Western Alaska, where King Salmon on the Alaska Peninsula saw temperatures drop most sharply, a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, the report says.



    The new nippiness began with a vengeance in 2005, after more than a century that saw temperatures generally veer warmer in Alaska, the report says. With lots of ice to lose, the state had heated up about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, in line with rising global greenhouse gas emissions, note the Alaska Climate Center researchers, Gerd Wendler, L. Chen and Blake Moore. After a "sudden temperature increase" in Alaska starting in 1977, the warmest decade on record occurred in the 1980s, followed by another jump in the 1990s, they note. The third warmest decade was the 1920s, by the way."








    While the globe warms and people swelter, Alaska is chilling | Alaska Dispatch
     
  6. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    are you saying that you dont believe that the base chart is from the second order draft of the IPCC's AR5? here is the unannotated graph. if you really want the original I can dig up the pdf of the report for you.

    [​IMG]


    here is the caption that accompanied it -

    did you really think it was just some graph conjured up out of thin air?


    as to your second point.....the temperatures for the last 16 years have bounced around within a couple of tenths of a degree with no discernable rise. are you confusing 'warm' with 'warming'? they are different things, you know.
     
  7. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    and this graph of the actual computer model projections-

    [​IMG]

    the caption-

    if you look at the actual temps, they are almost clear of even the lowest projections already. and that is only from 2005!
     
  8. Dubya
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    Dubya Senior Member

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    I'm saying I can do second grade arithmetic, can you?

    Your global temperature data doesn't match the data at the NCDC, so where else in the world or space can you get better global temperature data?
     
  9. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    You did read the caption, right?

    I think the IPCC is wrong about a lot of things but I think they probably got their global temps right. what offset is your dataset using, and which comparison period?
     
  10. tjvh
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    tjvh Senior Member

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    Nor is throwing Taxpayer money at it... A very expensive hoax.
     

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