Ice, again

What's the highest atmospheric CO2 levels you've found in the last 10,000 years, ie during the course of human civilization?

Hint: the date is on your desk calendar and you probably don't even have to flip a page.

Who cares. CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything. The Holocene Thermal Maximum of 8000 years ago was WAY hotter than today and the CO2 levels were low.

What more evidence do you need to show you that CO2 is meaningless?

How about some evidence that actually supports your contention?

You claim to be a reasonably intelligent fellow. Yet you reject the Greenhouse Effect.

No one in climate science has ever rejected the idea that increasing heat will lead to increased CO2 in the atmosphere. But explain to me how THAT gives any indication at all that CO2, which unquestionably absorbs infrared radiation, cannot increase global temperatures.
 
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So, quite the ramble. But, are we clear?

1) The very strong consensus among climate experts supporting AGW makes
it extremely likely that AGW is a correct theory.
2) Neither you nor I are climate scientists; we have no models; we have
no predictions
3) I believe the world's ice is melting because the Earth is getting
warmer and that it is getting warmer primarily due to the Greenhouse
Effect acting on human GHG emissions.


no, I don't think we are clear. that is, perhaps, the biggest stumbling block to discussing this whole issue.

Von Storch's poll on AGW was perhaps the best, and it pointed out the difference between scientists believing in a) global warming, b) mechanism of CO2 to affect radiative transfer, c) magnitude of CO2 effect, d) positive and negative feedbacks to disruptions caused by CO2 and e) wild ass guesses about the benefits or costs of temperature change.

I think everyone should agree that there has been some warming since we came out of the Little Ice Age. but our understanding of the magnitude of that change has been compromised by the steady stream of adjustments and arbitrary corrections implimented over the last few decades.

I think everyone should agree that there is an existing mechanism by which doubling CO2 concentration in the atmosphere theoretically should cause a ~1K increase, if all other components in the equilibrium remain unchanged. (as an aside, I am unhappy with this being more or less just assumed as correct. at the very least, I would like to know what the theoretical calculations say is the necessary concentration of CO2 to raise the first 1K so that we have a better understanding of how much of the greenhouse effect is attributible to CO2. 5-26% is a rather large span).

the radiative effect of CO2 is basically a boundary effect (first at the surface, secondarily at the top of clouds). the radiation choked off by extra CO2 goes into conduction, convextion, latent heat and atmospheric/surface heat sinks. some of the radiation will go into heat sinks and raise temps but some just shunts off to other routes, which are more efficient as temps go up. equilibriums change when conditions change. but on the whole natural systems work towards homeostasis via governors and negative feedbacks, not positive feedbacks which overwhelm the balance. the planet didnt burn up during the MWP, RWP or any other time during this interglacial when the temps were warmer than today.

I dont believe in the anthropogenic theory of global warming with CO2 as the control knob because there isnt enough evidence for it even when you ignore the evidence against it! until we get some realistic idea of how much warming is directly attributible to CO2 should we just carry on in the present SOP and blame everything on CO2?

the demonization of CO2 is just a proxy for demonizing humanity. I would rather spent the trillions of dollars cleaning up real pollution and improving the standards for most of the people of the world, rather than spend it on futile and wasteful attempts to curb necessary energy usage.
 
What's the highest atmospheric CO2 levels you've found in the last 10,000 years, ie during the course of human civilization?

Hint: the date is on your desk calendar and you probably don't even have to flip a page.

Who cares. CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything. The Holocene Thermal Maximum of 8000 years ago was WAY hotter than today and the CO2 levels were low.

What more evidence do you need to show you that CO2 is meaningless?

How about some evidence that actually supports your contention?

You claim to be a reasonably intelligent fellow. Yet you reject the Greenhouse Effect.

No one in climate science has ever rejected the idea that increasing heat will lead to increased CO2 in the atmosphere. But explain to me how THAT gives any indication at all that CO2, which unquestionably absorbs infrared radiation, cannot increase global temperatures.






Where oh where do I reject the greenhouse effect? I merely state that the GHG effect of CO2 is subsumed in the much larger GHG effect of water vapor. As far as the "proof" you desire. You can start here.


"Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed histories of surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration from data obtained from a Vostok ice core that covered the prior 420,000 years, determining that during glacial inception "the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years" and that "the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each termination." Likewise, working with sections of ice core records from around the times of the last three glacial terminations, Fischer et al. (1999) found that "the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions."

On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core and temperature data obtained from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000-20,000 years BP (Before Present). One statistical test performed on the data suggested that shifts in the air's CO2 content lagged shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of air temperature and CO2 data obtained from Dome Concordia, Antarctica for the period 22,000-9,000 BP -- which time interval includes the most recent glacial-to-interglacial transition -- Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2 increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. Then, in another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years."



CO2 Science

CO2 Science
 
Then show how they're wrong.

He just did. For someone who claims to read everything, it's interesting that you don't seem to have read anything here. Not Abe's post, not my link, both of which debunked SSDD's conspiracy theory.

You're also failing on "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" grounds. When someone makes a claim that all CO2 measurements on the planet have been totally wrong for decades running, that's an extraordinary claim. SSDD provided no evidence at all for that claim, other than his unsourced graphs. And instead of being a genuine skeptic and demanding extraordinary evidence for such an extraordinary claims, you accepted his conspiracy at face value and ignored the previous debunkings of it.

In other words, it was the usual denialist failure at being skeptical. All the actual skeptics are on the other side.
 
Then show how they're wrong.

He just did. For someone who claims to read everything, it's interesting that you don't seem to have read anything here. Not Abe's post, not my link, both of which debunked SSDD's conspiracy theory.

You're also failing on "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" grounds. When someone makes a claim that all CO2 measurements on the planet have been totally wrong for decades running, that's an extraordinary claim. SSDD provided no evidence at all for that claim, other than his unsourced graphs. And instead of being a genuine skeptic and demanding extraordinary evidence for such an extraordinary claims, you accepted his conspiracy at face value and ignored the previous debunkings of it.

In other words, it was the usual denialist failure at being skeptical. All the actual skeptics are on the other side.






Actually admiral, no he didn't. He presented yet more "correlation equals causation" horse manure. Any good scientist, emphasis on "good", knows that that is not the case.
 
This is not a correlation. This is a known causation, directly measurable as the process happens, much like gravity causing an object to fall. CO2 builds up near the ground under an inversion layer at night, then the winds and heating of the day destroy the inversion layer and disperse the extra CO2. A plot of half-hourly measurements shows it more clearly.

giessen_background.jpg


At this point, you can say "yep, you're right", or you can stick with SSDD's "Mainstream science is all wrong, and these are the real CO2 measurements!" theory. If that's the case, I'll start asking you to explain the details of it. Such as the physical mechanism that would cause CO2 levels of the whole atmosphere to fluctuate by 100 ppm in less than 1 hour.
 
This is not a correlation. This is a known causation, directly measurable as the process happens, much like gravity causing an object to fall. CO2 builds up near the ground under an inversion layer at night, then the winds and heating of the day destroy the inversion layer and disperse the extra CO2. A plot of half-hourly measurements shows it more clearly.

giessen_background.jpg


At this point, you can say "yep, you're right", or you can stick with SSDD's "Mainstream science is all wrong, and these are the real CO2 measurements!" theory. If that's the case, I'll start asking you to explain the details of it. Such as the physical mechanism that would cause CO2 levels of the whole atmosphere to fluctuate by 100 ppm in less than 1 hour.








And what do you think that shows?
 
And what do you think that shows?

What does it show? What does it show...the cat knows that it shows a wavy purple line going through a brownish greenish straight line over and over, and it has something to do with CO2 and days...yeah days....that's the ticket...CO2 and days. Hell all cats know that.
 
Who cares. CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything. The Holocene Thermal Maximum of 8000 years ago was WAY hotter than today and the CO2 levels were low.

What more evidence do you need to show you that CO2 is meaningless?

How about some evidence that actually supports your contention?

You claim to be a reasonably intelligent fellow. Yet you reject the Greenhouse Effect.

No one in climate science has ever rejected the idea that increasing heat will lead to increased CO2 in the atmosphere. But explain to me how THAT gives any indication at all that CO2, which unquestionably absorbs infrared radiation, cannot increase global temperatures.

Where oh where do I reject the greenhouse effect?

Where you say "CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything."

I merely state that the GHG effect of CO2 is subsumed in the much larger GHG effect of water vapor.

Not in this instance you didn't. You said "CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything."

As far as the "proof" you desire. You can start here.
"Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed histories of surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration from data obtained from a Vostok ice core that covered the prior 420,000 years, determining that during glacial inception "the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years" and that "the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each termination." Likewise, working with sections of ice core records from around the times of the last three glacial terminations, Fischer et al. (1999) found that "the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions."

On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core and temperature data obtained from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000-20,000 years BP (Before Present). One statistical test performed on the data suggested that shifts in the air's CO2 content lagged shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of air temperature and CO2 data obtained from Dome Concordia, Antarctica for the period 22,000-9,000 BP -- which time interval includes the most recent glacial-to-interglacial transition -- Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2 increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. Then, in another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years."

CO2 Science

CO2 Science

It is difficult not to get exasperated.
That CO2 comes out of solution when temperatures rise is not contested. HOWEVER, that that happens has NOTHING to do with the FACT that CO2 absorbs infrared and its presence in the atmosphere will raise the Earth's temperature. THAT IS THE FUCKING GREENHOUSE EFFECT. Your argument is akin to saying "water boils, therefore it cannot freeze".
 
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This is not a correlation. This is a known causation, directly measurable as the process happens, much like gravity causing an object to fall. CO2 builds up near the ground under an inversion layer at night, then the winds and heating of the day destroy the inversion layer and disperse the extra CO2. A plot of half-hourly measurements shows it more clearly.

giessen_background.jpg


At this point, you can say "yep, you're right", or you can stick with SSDD's "Mainstream science is all wrong, and these are the real CO2 measurements!" theory. If that's the case, I'll start asking you to explain the details of it. Such as the physical mechanism that would cause CO2 levels of the whole atmosphere to fluctuate by 100 ppm in less than 1 hour.

And what do you think that shows?

Good lord, man, open your eyes. It means those measurements are being overwhelmed by LOCAL effects. He might as well be standing next to the exhaust pipe of an 18-wheeler that runs half the day. Just like Mamooth noted. You'd have to be out of your mind to suggest that the global atmospheric CO2 levels were changing that radically in the course of a single day.
 
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How about some evidence that actually supports your contention?

You claim to be a reasonably intelligent fellow. Yet you reject the Greenhouse Effect.

No one in climate science has ever rejected the idea that increasing heat will lead to increased CO2 in the atmosphere. But explain to me how THAT gives any indication at all that CO2, which unquestionably absorbs infrared radiation, cannot increase global temperatures.

Where oh where do I reject the greenhouse effect?

Where you say "CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything."

I merely state that the GHG effect of CO2 is subsumed in the much larger GHG effect of water vapor.

Not in this instance you didn't. You said "CO2 lags temperature so it clearly has nothing to do with anything."

As far as the "proof" you desire. You can start here.
"Petit et al. (1999) reconstructed histories of surface air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration from data obtained from a Vostok ice core that covered the prior 420,000 years, determining that during glacial inception "the CO2 decrease lags the temperature decrease by several thousand years" and that "the same sequence of climate forcing operated during each termination." Likewise, working with sections of ice core records from around the times of the last three glacial terminations, Fischer et al. (1999) found that "the time lag of the rise in CO2 concentrations with respect to temperature change is on the order of 400 to 1000 years during all three glacial-interglacial transitions."

On the basis of atmospheric CO2 data obtained from the Antarctic Taylor Dome ice core and temperature data obtained from the Vostok ice core, Indermuhle et al. (2000) studied the relationship between these two parameters over the period 60,000-20,000 years BP (Before Present). One statistical test performed on the data suggested that shifts in the air's CO2 content lagged shifts in air temperature by approximately 900 years, while a second statistical test yielded a mean lag-time of 1200 years. Similarly, in a study of air temperature and CO2 data obtained from Dome Concordia, Antarctica for the period 22,000-9,000 BP -- which time interval includes the most recent glacial-to-interglacial transition -- Monnin et al. (2001) found that the start of the CO2 increase lagged the start of the temperature increase by 800 years. Then, in another study of the 420,000-year Vostok ice-core record, Mudelsee (2001) concluded that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years."

CO2 Science

CO2 Science

It is difficult not to get exasperated.
That CO2 comes out of solution when temperatures rise is not contested. HOWEVER, that that happens has NOTHING to do with the FACT that CO2 absorbs infrared and its presence in the atmosphere will raise the Earth's temperature. THAT IS THE FUCKING GREENHOUSE EFFECT. Your argument is akin to saying "water boils, therefore it cannot freeze".






And it doesn't. CO2 is so small a player in the GHG games that it barely registers on our best instruments. Water vapor is THE dominant GHG and operates in the same wavelengths as CO2 does. Thus it is impossible for CO2 to have any measureable effect. That's why even though the CO2 levels have gone up, the temps haven't.

It's not rocket science and I agree arguing the same crap over and over with you guys does get trying.

How about you come up with something that actually is interesting. Your material is old and tired and way, way, way out of date.
 
It appears you realize that your argument was completely off point, you're just not willing to admit it.

The only thing affecting water vapor levels in the Earth's atmosphere is temperature. Water vapor cannot create itself.

The atmosphere cannot hold more water than its temperature will allow. It will immediately precipitate out. It could hold a thousand times more CO2 than it currently has. The lifespan of water in the atmosphere is measured in days. The lifespan of CO2 is measured in centuries. A mole of CO2 over the course of its time in the atmosphere will absorb thousands of times as much energy as a mole of water. The only thing humans are doing that will increase the level of water vapor in the atmosphere is warming it with greenhouse gases.

You claimed to be a geologist, right? Who knows this sort of... atmospheric physics better? A geologist or an atmospheric physicist? And what do atmospheric physicists say about this? They say you're full of shit.
 
CO2 is so small a player...barely registers on our best instruments.
it is impossible for CO2 to have any measureable effect.

It is measurable and also impossible to have measurable effects.

Which is it? It might help you to drop your vehement language so you can understand what your are saying for your own sake. Not to mention it makes it hard for profitable discussion when you are mostly focused on assuring us the impossibility and numb-skullery of opposing viewpoints. Drop this and we'd have a discussion centered around presentation of data, links and facts rather than beating a dead horse.
 

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