How to Understand Obama's Unemployment Figures

[bigrebnc1775]

Someone finally figured it out!




COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that's 9%...

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.

COSTELLO: To who?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise, it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?

COSTELLO: That would be frightening.

ABBOTT: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just
stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist.

COSTELLO: I don't even know what I just said!

And now you know why Obama's unemployment figures are improving!

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Someone finally figured it out!




COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that's 9%...

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.

COSTELLO: To who?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise, it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?

COSTELLO: That would be frightening.

ABBOTT: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just
stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist.

COSTELLO: I don't even know what I just said!

And now you know why Obama's unemployment figures are improving!

In other words some people will believe wishful thinking so they will not feel so bad.

 

[TruthSeeker56]

EXCELLENT analogy! Great job!

Let's do the Obamanista "statistical shell game" in a "formulaic" way:

1. Calculate the gross (total) number of ALL unemployed/out of work adults 18 years of age or older.

2. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who have exhausted their unemployment benefits.

3. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who have given up looking for work and are completely relying on public assistance to survive.

4. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who are working part-time jobs, because they cannot find a full-time job.

5. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who are "under"-employed (working at jobs that are well below their skill levels).

6. Subtract the number of all other unemployed/out of work adults who are NOT collecting unemployment benefits.

7. The "reported" unemployment "statistics" are the result.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

EXCELLENT analogy! Great job!

Let's do the Obamanista "statistical shell game" in a "formulaic" way:

1. Calculate the gross (total) number of ALL unemployed/out of work adults 18 years of age or older.

2. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who have exhausted their unemployment benefits.

3. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who have given up looking for work and are completely relying on public assistance to survive.

4. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who are working part-time jobs, because they cannot find a full-time job.

5. Subtract the number of all unemployed/out of work adults who are "under"-employed (working at jobs that are well below their skill levels).

6. Subtract the number of all other unemployed/out of work adults who are NOT collecting unemployment benefits.

7. The "reported" unemployment "statistics" are the result.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

 

[theHawk]

Check out the real labor force numbers:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0
2012 63.7

The percentage of the people in the workforce has shrunk tremendously since Obama took office.

In fact, it is the lowest it has ever been since the early 80's after the Carter train wreck.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Scene II: Unemployment stimulates the economy

 

[LilOlLady]

Someone finally figured it out!




COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that's 9%...

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.

COSTELLO: To who?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise, it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?

COSTELLO: That would be frightening.

ABBOTT: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just
stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist.

COSTELLO: I don't even know what I just said!

And now you know why Obama's unemployment figures are improving!

Only village idiots would understand this nonsense. Facts by economist believe different and I tend to believe them. Sound like radical right wing and Foxnews gibberish

 

[g5000]

And now you know why Obama's unemployment figures are improving!

I love Abbott and Costello, but fictional comedy routines do not reflect reality.

Here is the reality:

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January, little different from a year earlier.

February 2012 Employment Situation

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Someone finally figured it out!




COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that's 9%...

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.

COSTELLO: To who?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work... Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise, it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?

COSTELLO: That would be frightening.

ABBOTT: Absolutely.

COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they're two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just
stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist.

COSTELLO: I don't even know what I just said!

And now you know why Obama's unemployment figures are improving!

Only village idiots would understand this nonsense. Facts by economist believe different and I tend to believe them. Sound like radical right wing and Foxnews gibberish

No the facts were pointed out how the unemployment numbers are given. but a left wing village idiot wouldn't understand that, well because they are a idiot.

 

[g5000]

Check out the real labor force numbers:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0
2012 63.7

The percentage of the people in the workforce has shrunk tremendously since Obama took office.

In fact, it is the lowest it has ever been since the early 80's after the Carter train wreck.

Since I just showed that the number of discourage workers is unchanged from a year ago, what do you suppose is the cause the number of workers dropping?

Do you think the big fat egg of baby boomers that are now hitting retirement age might have something to do with it?

1946 + 65 = 2011!

 

[g5000]

So here is the Employment Situation report from February of last year:

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in January, about the same as a year earlier.

You mean the number of discouraged workers has not changed in TWO years!?!

Say it ain't so!

 

[g5000]

February 2010:

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in February, up by 473,000 from a year earlier.

February 2009, right after You Know Who left office:

Among the marginally attached, there were 731,000 discouraged workers in February, up by 335,000 from a year earlier.

February 2008:

Among the marginally attached, there were 396,000 discouraged workers in February, about the same as a year earlier.

Let's go back to when we had virtually full employment and see what the optimum is.

February 2006:

Among the marginally attached, there were 386,000 discouraged workers in February, down from 485,000 a year earlier.

386,000 discourage workers at optimum. Bushie nearly doubled that figure before he left three years later.

The number increased by another third in Obama's first year and it has held steady ever since.

 

[g5000]

Now instead of "understanding" Obama's unemployment figures in a vacuum, you understand the unemployment figures in historical perspective.

Always remember that snapshots are carefully framed to keep you from seeing the surroundings.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Check out the real labor force numbers:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0
2012 63.7

The percentage of the people in the workforce has shrunk tremendously since Obama took office.

In fact, it is the lowest it has ever been since the early 80's after the Carter train wreck.

Since I just showed that the number of discourage workers is unchanged from a year ago, what do you suppose is the cause the number of workers dropping?

Do you think the big fat egg of baby boomers that are now hitting retirement age might have something to do with it?

1946 + 65 = 2011!

OH yell that's the retirement number. Now I want you to show me how many actually retired when they turned 65?>

 

[bigrebnc1775]

So here is the Employment Situation report from February of last year:

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in January, about the same as a year earlier.

You mean the number of discouraged workers has not changed in TWO years!?!

Say it ain't so!

I don't mind raining on your parade of praise, but those numbers from the government are suspicious being it's obama's government that has produced those numbers, after all that is the purpose of this thread.

 

[g5000]

So here is the Employment Situation report from February of last year:

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in January, about the same as a year earlier.

You mean the number of discouraged workers has not changed in TWO years!?!

Say it ain't so!

I don't mind raining on your parade of praise, but those numbers from the government are suspicious being it's obama's government that has produced those numbers, after all that is the purpose of this thread.

Wow. Your propaganda got shattered and all you have left is that someone at the BLS is putting out fake figures because the man in the White House changed. BWA-HA-HA!

You posited the reason the unemployment figure went down is because the number of discouraged has increased. Well, since the number of discouraged workers is unchanged (or mischievously kept that way on purpose as your fevered mind just conjured up), that still does not explain why the Unemployment figure has dropped.

So there must be another reason.

Did you even bother to look at the number of jobs created? You know, the MOST COMMON CAUSE of unemployment going down?

Of course you didn't. That does not fit into your myth.

It would just crush you to be faced with the possiblity that jobs have been created which caused Unemployment to go down under Obama.

That is the very definition of "willful blindness".

 

[g5000]

Check out the real labor force numbers:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data




The percentage of the people in the workforce has shrunk tremendously since Obama took office.

In fact, it is the lowest it has ever been since the early 80's after the Carter train wreck.

Since I just showed that the number of discourage workers is unchanged from a year ago, what do you suppose is the cause the number of workers dropping?

Do you think the big fat egg of baby boomers that are now hitting retirement age might have something to do with it?

1946 + 65 = 2011!

OH yell that's the retirement number. Now I want you to show me how many actually retired when they turned 65?>

•In 2010, 54 million people were receiving Social Security benefits, while 157 million people were paying into the fund. Of those receiving benefits, 44 million were receiving retirement benefits and 10 million disability benefits. In 2011, there will be 56 million beneficiaries and 158 million workers paying in.

•In 1990, the total U.S. population was 261 million, with 32 million over age 65. That meant there were roughly five working-age people (ages 20 to 64) for every person of retirement age. By 2035, the population is expected to be 381 million, with 77 million over age 65. That means that the ratio of potential retirees to workers will be 37% — there will be less than three potential income earners for every retiree in the population.

2011 Annual Report by the Social Security Board of Trustees – Journalist's Resource: Research for Reporting, from Harvard Shorenstein Center

More information here: http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/

37.132 milllion people drawing Social Security in 2011.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

So here is the Employment Situation report from February of last year:





You mean the number of discouraged workers has not changed in TWO years!?!

Say it ain't so!

I don't mind raining on your parade of praise, but those numbers from the government are suspicious being it's obama's government that has produced those numbers, after all that is the purpose of this thread.

Wow. Your propaganda got shattered and all you have left is that someone at the BLS is putting out fake figures because the man in the White House changed. BWA-HA-HA!

You posited the reason the unemployment figure went down is because the number of discouraged has increased. Well, since the number of discouraged workers is unchanged (or mischievously kept that way on purpose as your fevered mind just conjured up), that still does not explain why the Unemployment figure has dropped.

So there must be another reason.

Did you even bother to look at the number of jobs created? You know, the MOST COMMON CAUSE of unemployment going down?

Of course you didn't. That does not fit into your myth.

It would just crush you to be faced with the possiblity that jobs have been created which caused Unemployment to go down under Obama.

That is the very definition of "willful blindness".

Look sheeple, it's election year, obama is running for reelection, he is the boss of the Secretary of labor which the department of labor submits those numbers. You can believe those numbers all you want to. I'll stick with what I see and that is the job numbers are false.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Since I just showed that the number of discourage workers is unchanged from a year ago, what do you suppose is the cause the number of workers dropping?

Do you think the big fat egg of baby boomers that are now hitting retirement age might have something to do with it?

1946 + 65 = 2011!

OH yell that's the retirement number. Now I want you to show me how many actually retired when they turned 65?>

•In 2010, 54 million people were receiving Social Security benefits, while 157 million people were paying into the fund. Of those receiving benefits, 44 million were receiving retirement benefits and 10 million disability benefits. In 2011, there will be 56 million beneficiaries and 158 million workers paying in.

•In 1990, the total U.S. population was 261 million, with 32 million over age 65. That meant there were roughly five working-age people (ages 20 to 64) for every person of retirement age. By 2035, the population is expected to be 381 million, with 77 million over age 65. That means that the ratio of potential retirees to workers will be 37% — there will be less than three potential income earners for every retiree in the population.

2011 Annual Report by the Social Security Board of Trustees – Journalist's Resource: Research for Reporting, from Harvard Shorenstein Center

Harvard? Didn't obama graduate from Harvard? They said he did but no one has seen his records.

 

[g5000]

Growth in number of Social Security beneficiaries