How Many Undecided Voters are Left?

[Dick Tuck]

Not many.

Those expressing no preference in today's (Thursday) RCP poll averages weighed against the total number of registered voters leaves about 1,375,157 undecided likely voters in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire combined.

I think we have entered the "it's all about the turnout" phase.

Who gets the edge?

Romney's base seem VERY motivated (whether that is pro-Romney or anti-Obama motivation doesn't really matter at this point does it?). Are some his recent statements taking any edge off that motivation?

Obama's convention is fresher and maybe he's still bouncing from that? Will that enthusiasm last six more weeks?

What's your take?

Romney is light years behind Obama in GOTV organizing on the ground. The only good thing to come from Citizens United is that Labor can now use any ones money to build upon their GOTV groups. Your expectation of "enthusiastic voters" for Romney doesn't seem to jibe with what we're seeing. Did you see Romney trying to change the cheer yesterday, when people were chanting "Ryan...Ryan"? I'd also point to the numerous polls about Romney's likability. I've heard too many conservatives use the "I'll hold my nose" line, just like we heard with McCain. There's little enthusiasm for Romney.

 

[nodoginnafight]

No, they haven't been accurate.

Right now, they're averaging polls that are heavily oversampling democrats and that include people who may or may not show up at the polls.

Like them or not, Rasmussen is the only outfit that screens for likely voters, rather than merely registered voters or adults who may not vote at all, and has the track record of being the most accurate.

In 2008 and again in 2010 the RCP poll averages were a lot closer to the actual results than Rassmussen alone was. And at least 10 other individual polls listed in the RCP averages outperformed Rassmussen in 2008 and 2010. And btw, Rassmussen is not the only outfit that uses a "likely voter" poll. Just look athe RCP list of polls and note how many have the tell-tale LV designation.

I've looked numerous times...RCP's roll of pollsters is heavily weighted to adults and registered voters, not likely voters.

On top of that, the majority of pollsters are, for one reason or another, oversampling democrats, to the point that the oversamples are equal to or greater than the spread between the candidates...Ergo any discussion based upon such flawed data ranks a couple of clicks below navel contemplation, IM not-at-all HO.

Like I said earlier, GIGO.

You haven't looked very closely. Let me help you.
of the seven polls that are currently indexed in the RCP average - six are Likely Voter polls and one is a Registered Voter poll.

Don't just accept what someone else tells you - look for yourself.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[nodoginnafight]

Not many.

Those expressing no preference in today's (Thursday) RCP poll averages weighed against the total number of registered voters leaves about 1,375,157 undecided likely voters in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire combined.

I think we have entered the "it's all about the turnout" phase.

Who gets the edge?

Romney's base seem VERY motivated (whether that is pro-Romney or anti-Obama motivation doesn't really matter at this point does it?). Are some his recent statements taking any edge off that motivation?

Obama's convention is fresher and maybe he's still bouncing from that? Will that enthusiasm last six more weeks?

What's your take?

Romney is light years behind Obama in GOTV organizing on the ground. The only good thing to come from Citizens United is that Labor can now use any ones money to build upon their GOTV groups. Your expectation of "enthusiastic voters" for Romney doesn't seem to jibe with what we're seeing. Did you see Romney trying to change the cheer yesterday, when people were chanting "Ryan...Ryan"? I'd also point to the numerous polls about Romney's likability. I've heard too many conservatives use the "I'll hold my nose" line, just like we heard with McCain. There's little enthusiasm for Romney.

I agree in large part with your lack of enthusiasm FOR Romney, but as I noted I think there is some real enthusiasm AGAINST Obama - and thet pretty much works out to the same thing in this case.