How Many Undecided Voters are Left?

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by nodoginnafight, Sep 27, 2012.

  1. nodoginnafight
    Offline

    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,755
    Thanks Received:
    1,069
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Location:
    Georgia
    Ratings:
    +1,497
    Not many.

    Those expressing no preference in today's (Thursday) RCP poll averages weighed against the total number of registered voters leaves about 1,375,157 undecided likely voters in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire combined.

    I think we have entered the "it's all about the turnout" phase.

    Who gets the edge?

    Romney's base seem VERY motivated (whether that is pro-Romney or anti-Obama motivation doesn't really matter at this point does it?). Are some his recent statements taking any edge off that motivation?

    Obama's convention is fresher and maybe he's still bouncing from that? Will that enthusiasm last six more weeks?

    What's your take?
     
  2. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    If you're starting out with RCP you're dealing with phony numbers from the get-go.
     
  3. elvis
    Offline

    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    25,882
    Thanks Received:
    4,303
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +4,303
    A lot can change in a month, but I don't think it will.
     
  4. nodoginnafight
    Offline

    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,755
    Thanks Received:
    1,069
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Location:
    Georgia
    Ratings:
    +1,497
    They've been very accurate in the past. Their averaging tends to even out the outliers. How come you have problems with that?
     
  5. CausingPAIN
    Offline

    CausingPAIN BANNED

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2012
    Messages:
    1,395
    Thanks Received:
    78
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    I'm not sure? Can you help?
    Ratings:
    +78
    I have not decided and always wait till last possible minute, you never know what may come up.
     
  6. nodoginnafight
    Offline

    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,755
    Thanks Received:
    1,069
    Trophy Points:
    175
    Location:
    Georgia
    Ratings:
    +1,497
    You are absolutely right on target there with the "A lot can change in a month" statement. I'm not sure about the "doubting it will" part though. Reagan turned it around by thrashing Carter in the debates. But yeah, I haven't seen anythying that indicates Romney can debate like Reagan nor that Obama will wilt at a debate like Carter did.

    But the economy does SEEM fragile at this point and one good jolt .... who knows?
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2012
  7. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    No, they haven't been accurate.

    Right now, they're averaging polls that are heavily oversampling democrats and that include people who may or may not show up at the polls.

    Like them or not, Rasmussen is the only outfit that screens for likely voters, rather than merely registered voters or adults who may not vote at all, and has the track record of being the most accurate.
     
  8. beretta304
    Offline

    beretta304 BANNED

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2012
    Messages:
    8,664
    Thanks Received:
    73
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    A Saner Place
    Ratings:
    +73
    Not many is correct. Now it's about how many will turn out. The one who gets the biggest turnout...wins.
     
  9. Black_Label
    Offline

    Black_Label Registered Democrat

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2012
    Messages:
    6,306
    Thanks Received:
    508
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +514
    RCP is the fairest and most accurate pollster around. They were the most accurate in 2008 and others.

    Right wingers such as yourself worship Rasmussen because it gives you that hard right bias you want to hear.

    Also that's complete bullshit that rasmussen is the only pollster that screens likely voters. Every recent poll conducted besides gallup use likely voters

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2012
  10. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    RCP is shit, because they average shit polls...Period.

    GIGO.
     

Share This Page