How accurate are CO2 Models?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Jan 11, 2011.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Not very unsurprisingly. A new paper published in the Climate of the Past Open Access Journal of the European Geosciences Union shows that there is up to a 32 degree variance in the effect of CO2. Yep, that's real precise!:lol:

    CP - Abstract - Model-dependence of the CO2 threshold for melting the hard Snowball Earth

    Here is a blog that runs through the numbers....


    Three climate models compared for global temperature claimed to result from 0.2 bar CO2 atmospheric level:

    1. Hu et al finds 268K = -5.15C = 22.73F
    2. Pierrehumbert et al finds 255K = -18.15C = -.67F
    3. Le Hir et al finds (for 50% less CO2 or 0.1 bar) 270K+3K (temp increase claimed for doubled CO2 per IPCC) = 273K = -.15C = 31.73F



    THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Climate Models Differ on CO2 Warming Effect by over 32°F
     
  2. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    The Warmers fucked up, they should have stuck with Global Cooling
     
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Real data from real scientists

    Papers on laboratory measurements of CO2 absorption properties AGW Observer

    This is a list of papers on laboratory measurements of the absorption properties of carbon dioxide. In the context of these paperlists this is a difficult subject because only few of the papers are freely available online, so we have to settle on abstracts only (of course, interested reader can purchase the full texts for the papers from the linked abstract pages). However, I don’t think that matters that much because the main point of this list really is to show that the basic research on the subject exists. The list is not complete, and will most likely be updated in the future in order to make it more thorough and more representative
     
  4. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Real old work from scientists using questionable to outright fraudulent methodology. Your point?
     
  5. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    do you just put links down without thinking? or do you think that your side will think you have championed 'the truth' as long as you just say something, anything? westy posted a paper that pointed out climate models with wildly differing effects for CO2 and you turn around with a website that lists papers showing the absorption spectra of CO2. no one is saying that CO2 doesnt absorb IR. what does that have to do with climate models that get totally different results?
     
  6. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Nothing. Olfruad is just posting as much crap as possible to try and baffle us with bullcrap.
    It doesn't work anymore, though he still loves to neg rep me!:lol:
     
  7. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    Now, this one looks really, really accurate...

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    Crosman's unique Mohawk sighting system includes a rear aperture sight with two hole sizes, and you can quickly switch from one to the other by flipping the sight. No tools required! Plus, the front sight is also adjustable! You'll acquire targets much quicker. If you like scopes, red dots or lasers, you can easily mount one on the 11mm dovetails. Powered by an AirSource CO2 cartridge, the rifle will give you up to 350 shots.
     
  8. Bern80
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    Bern80 Gold Member

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    My question in answer to your question of 'How accurate are CO2 models?', would be......How accurate are CO2 models of what exactly? As Rocks inadvertantly pointed out by not reading yet another of his links, I think we need to agree on what the experiment is before we agree on how accurate they are.
     
  9. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    [ QUOTE=PoliticalChic;3194117]
    Now, this one looks really, really accurate...

    NightStalker - 12 Shot Semi-Auto, Airsource Powered Blowback Pellet Rifle
    Retail: $145.56
    Our Price: $99.99
    You Save: $45.57 (31%)
    Quantity:

    Email to a Friend
    SKU: PY-734
    Availability: Usually ships the next business day

    Caliber: 0.177" Velocity: 580 FPS Manufactured by Crosman Limited 1 year warranty

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DescriptionSpecificationsAccessoriesAmmo
    One of the coolest tactical rifles made today! The Crosman NightStalker is a whole new ballgame, because it's the first semiautomatic pellet rifle with blowback action. Not just another pretty face, the sci-fi design of the ergonomic synthetic stock is a reflection of the technology and thought that went into making this rifle.



    Crosman's unique Mohawk sighting system includes a rear aperture sight with two hole sizes, and you can quickly switch from one to the other by flipping the sight. No tools required! Plus, the front sight is also adjustable! You'll acquire targets much quicker. If you like scopes, red dots or lasers, you can easily mount one on the 11mm dovetails. Powered by an AirSource CO2 cartridge, the rifle will give you up to 350 shots.[/QUOTE]

    your version of sarcasm PC? everyone here gets pointed to science paper from blogs, that doesnt change what is in the paper.

    I found the quoted abstract interesting because it talked about how different models produced dramatically diferent Hadley Cells. If the models cant even get basic circulation to match how can they predict the effect of a factor that is just a few percent of the total, decades into the future?
     
  10. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    These particular models are trying to determine what the temperature increase will be for a given level of CO2. The fact that there is a 32 degree spread tells me they have no idea what they are trying to measure, much less predict.
     

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