Hillary Clinton’s pollster Benenson Strategy Group says she is tanking; Trump supporters unstoppable

[bripat9643]

This explains the last two weeks of Obama and every other left wing operative out trolling for Clinton.. She is in free fall... and they are dam scared!

It also explains the train of "accusers" who have come out of the woodwork. That's a sure sign of desperation.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Three other polls, one being the one that was right the last two elections, has Hillary down 3.7 points tonight.. A 6 point fall in 10 days..

If you look at the internals in these polls, they're oversampling Hillary voters and Lean Hillary voters by about 8%-10% depending on the poll, they're undersampling Trump voters and Lean Trump voters, so with polls loaded in this way of course they show Hillary leading.

Also the number of people, they're not big polls, they're all 500 people, under 500 people and few over 1,000 people, so the smaller the people polled the higher the MOE is.

To get a proper poll, you'd sample 40% Hillary voters, 40% Trump voters, 20% Independents and you'd poll something like 5,000 people, this would give a more accurate poll and also a smaller MOE.

Wrong.

Pollsters attempt to obtain a cross-section of the population by estimating demographics based on sex, age and color. They usually don't do it by party affiliation because it is more volatile and less reliable.

Besides, there are more Democrats than Republicans. So any poll that equalizes Republicans and Democrats is a bad poll.

Are you saying that it doesn't say in these polls the % of Democratic and Republican people?

Also how do they know these people are even going to vote? How do they not know even if they vote, they might change their mind at the last minute? Also Independents, you still have a lot of them not having made their mind up, which is ridiculous in many ways as close to an election they still don't know who they want to vote for, so how are they factored into these polls when they're so unreliable?

 

[leftwinger]

Your bitch is down by almost 4 points.... and all you got is being the grammar police.. Classic..

View attachment 94829

I know, it looks impossible. I figured they would "fix" one swing state (VA) and it is over. The Clintonite GOV put EO to allow 200K felons to vote. step 1 in place.

 

[edthecynic]

Also the number of people, they're not big polls, they're all 500 people, under 500 people and few over 1,000 people, so the smaller the people polled the higher the MOE is.

To get a proper poll, you'd sample 40% Hillary voters, 40% Trump voters, 20% Independents and you'd poll something like 5,000 people, this would give a more accurate poll and also a smaller MOE.

The NBC/SM poll sampled nearly 25,000 likely voters and has Hillary up by 8%.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

On October 18, 2016, the hacker(s) Anonymous claims that “a source inside the [Hillary] Clinton campaign has leaked an internal polling document that shows her support is gone”.

The document is a report titled Salvage Program from the Benenson Strategy Group, the pollster and strategist for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. The report looks professional and credible. It’s called Salvage Program because its goal is to “salvage” — to rescue, save, recover, restore — Hillary’s campaign, which is tanking.

In the words of the report (my words are in green):

“At this point Donald Trump has both momentum and enthusiasm. Distrust in the mainstream media is blunting the impact of the collective polling narrative [which implies that the polls we are told are fraudulent — their data manufactured to favor Hillary]. As Election Day approaches, Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings have crashed to historic lows (12%) in non-partisans and Donald Trump is consolidating support (97% of LV Republican-identifying respondents are either enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting for Trump).”

(Excerpt) Read more atfellowshipoftheminds.com ...

I was wondering since we have seen Trumps internals. Why haven't we seen Clintons? You would think the supposed front runner would be proud to show how well she's doing.

That along with why is Hillary still campaigning when the MSM keep telling everyone she's already won.

 

[Toro]

Three other polls, one being the one that was right the last two elections, has Hillary down 3.7 points tonight.. A 6 point fall in 10 days..

If you look at the internals in these polls, they're oversampling Hillary voters and Lean Hillary voters by about 8%-10% depending on the poll, they're undersampling Trump voters and Lean Trump voters, so with polls loaded in this way of course they show Hillary leading.

Also the number of people, they're not big polls, they're all 500 people, under 500 people and few over 1,000 people, so the smaller the people polled the higher the MOE is.

To get a proper poll, you'd sample 40% Hillary voters, 40% Trump voters, 20% Independents and you'd poll something like 5,000 people, this would give a more accurate poll and also a smaller MOE.

Wrong.

Pollsters attempt to obtain a cross-section of the population by estimating demographics based on sex, age and color. They usually don't do it by party affiliation because it is more volatile and less reliable.

Besides, there are more Democrats than Republicans. So any poll that equalizes Republicans and Democrats is a bad poll.

Are you saying that it doesn't say in these polls the % of Democratic and Republican people?

Also how do they know these people are even going to vote? How do they not know even if they vote, they might change their mind at the last minute? Also Independents, you still have a lot of them not having made their mind up, which is ridiculous in many ways as close to an election they still don't know who they want to vote for, so how are they factored into these polls when they're so unreliable?

No, what I'm saying is that they don't adjust for party affiliation. People sometimes forget their party registration or change it. They don't forget their age, sex and color.

And equalizing for party affiliation when one party has more members than the other - as you've said should happen - is really bad math.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Also the number of people, they're not big polls, they're all 500 people, under 500 people and few over 1,000 people, so the smaller the people polled the higher the MOE is.

To get a proper poll, you'd sample 40% Hillary voters, 40% Trump voters, 20% Independents and you'd poll something like 5,000 people, this would give a more accurate poll and also a smaller MOE.

The NBC/SM poll sampled nearly 25,000 likely voters and has Hillary up by 8%.

Yes likely voters, which doesn't mean all of them are going to vote or not change their minds at the last minute, literally some could change their minds on the day of the election, so that 8% - the MOE under those circumstances isn't that great.

Also they can't factor how many Trump supporters won't respond to these pollsters.

There are many unforseen situations which are impossible to factor into any poll, even something like bad weather in some key parts on the election day, this then becomes about motivation, who's supporters are most motivated and angry enough to go and vote no matter what the circumstances are.

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

Besides, there are more Democrats than Republicans. So any poll that equalizes Republicans and Democrats is a bad poll.

BY 2%. But that's not including independents. Most independents are former REPUBLICANS who can't call themselves "republican" since the Party has moved LEFT

The latter result is more in line with Gallup polling in 2010 that found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party.

 

[NYcarbineer]

On October 18, 2016, the hacker(s) Anonymous claims that “a source inside the [Hillary] Clinton campaign has leaked an internal polling document that shows her support is gone”.

The document is a report titled Salvage Program from the Benenson Strategy Group, the pollster and strategist for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. The report looks professional and credible. It’s called Salvage Program because its goal is to “salvage” — to rescue, save, recover, restore — Hillary’s campaign, which is tanking.

In the words of the report (my words are in green):

“At this point Donald Trump has both momentum and enthusiasm. Distrust in the mainstream media is blunting the impact of the collective polling narrative [which implies that the polls we are told are fraudulent — their data manufactured to favor Hillary]. As Election Day approaches, Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings have crashed to historic lows (12%) in non-partisans and Donald Trump is consolidating support (97% of LV Republican-identifying respondents are either enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting for Trump).”

(Excerpt) Read more atfellowshipoftheminds.com ...

Your link makes infowars look like Pulitzer Prize material.

 

[Vastator]

Trump supporters will show no matter what.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Three other polls, one being the one that was right the last two elections, has Hillary down 3.7 points tonight.. A 6 point fall in 10 days..

If you look at the internals in these polls, they're oversampling Hillary voters and Lean Hillary voters by about 8%-10% depending on the poll, they're undersampling Trump voters and Lean Trump voters, so with polls loaded in this way of course they show Hillary leading.

Also the number of people, they're not big polls, they're all 500 people, under 500 people and few over 1,000 people, so the smaller the people polled the higher the MOE is.

To get a proper poll, you'd sample 40% Hillary voters, 40% Trump voters, 20% Independents and you'd poll something like 5,000 people, this would give a more accurate poll and also a smaller MOE.

Wrong.

Pollsters attempt to obtain a cross-section of the population by estimating demographics based on sex, age and color. They usually don't do it by party affiliation because it is more volatile and less reliable.

Besides, there are more Democrats than Republicans. So any poll that equalizes Republicans and Democrats is a bad poll.

Are you saying that it doesn't say in these polls the % of Democratic and Republican people?

Also how do they know these people are even going to vote? How do they not know even if they vote, they might change their mind at the last minute? Also Independents, you still have a lot of them not having made their mind up, which is ridiculous in many ways as close to an election they still don't know who they want to vote for, so how are they factored into these polls when they're so unreliable?

No, what I'm saying is that they don't adjust for party affiliation. People sometimes forget their party registration or change it. They don't forget their age, sex and color.

And equalizing for party affiliation when one party has more members than the other - as you've said should happen - is really bad math.

What does somebody's age have to do with how they vote? They are people from all age groups who will vote Left or Right.

 

[Vigilante]

On October 18, 2016, the hacker(s) Anonymous claims that “a source inside the [Hillary] Clinton campaign has leaked an internal polling document that shows her support is gone”.

The document is a report titled Salvage Program from the Benenson Strategy Group, the pollster and strategist for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. The report looks professional and credible. It’s called Salvage Program because its goal is to “salvage” — to rescue, save, recover, restore — Hillary’s campaign, which is tanking.

In the words of the report (my words are in green):

“At this point Donald Trump has both momentum and enthusiasm. Distrust in the mainstream media is blunting the impact of the collective polling narrative [which implies that the polls we are told are fraudulent — their data manufactured to favor Hillary]. As Election Day approaches, Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings have crashed to historic lows (12%) in non-partisans and Donald Trump is consolidating support (97% of LV Republican-identifying respondents are either enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting for Trump).”

(Excerpt) Read more atfellowshipoftheminds.com ...

Your link makes infowars look like Pulitzer Prize material.

But better than anything your pea brain can muster up!

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Trump supporters will show no matter what.

Yes that's what I'm meaning, Trump supporters are fired up and angry, anger, this is a huge motivation to go and vote.

 

[Toro]

What does somebody's age have to do with how they vote? They are people from all age groups who will vote Left or Right.

Because pollsters try to estimate an accurate cross-section of the population.

If you have a sample population only of teenagers or women or black people, you will not have a good estimate of the entire population and how the population will vote, which is what pollsters are trying to create. How teenagers are going to vote is not an accurate estimate of how seniors will vote.

 

[defcon4]

Your quoting the NBC cesspool that has over-sampled dems by 24%.....

unskewedpolls.com

hahaha

Toto, I was polled today. It was the usual automated number pushing answer system. What my input was follows:
35 yo, Latino female, 4 years college, strong democrat (there were different levels) strongly disapprove Clinton, strongly disapprove Obama, strongly approve Trump and will vote for Trump.
How is that for accurate polling....?

 

[Toro]

Your quoting the NBC cesspool that has over-sampled dems by 24%.....

unskewedpolls.com

hahaha

Toto, I was polled today. It was the usual automated number pushing answer system. What my input was follows:
35 yo, Latino female, 4 years college, strong democrat (there were different levels) strongly disapprove Clinton, strongly disapprove Obama, strongly approve Trump and will vote for Trump.
How is that for accurate polling....?

Which is why automated polling - i.e. Rasmussen Reports - is less accurate than live-calling polls. People are less likely to lie to people than they are to machines.

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

Your quoting the NBC cesspool that has over-sampled dems by 24%.....

unskewedpolls.com

hahaha

Toto, I was polled today. It was the usual automated number pushing answer system. What my input was follows:
35 yo, Latino female, 4 years college, strong democrat (there were different levels) strongly disapprove Clinton, strongly disapprove Obama, strongly approve Trump and will vote for Trump.
How is that for accurate polling....?

Rush says thus happens a lot

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

What does somebody's age have to do with how they vote? They are people from all age groups who will vote Left or Right.

Because pollsters try to estimate an accurate cross-section of the population.

If you have a sample population only of teenagers or women or black people, you will not have a good estimate of the entire population and how the population will vote, which is what pollsters are trying to create. How teenagers are going to vote is not an accurate estimate of how seniors will vote.

Teenagers shouldn't be allowed to vote, in an ideal world voting would begin at 21 years-old.

This is from earlier in the thread:

"The latter result is more in line with Gallup polling in 2010 that found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats (tying a 22-year low), 29% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. Nevertheless, more American independents leaned to the Republican Party when compared to the Democratic Party."

So 31% Democratic, 29% Republican and 38% Independent, the largest block are the Independents who lean Republican.

 

[edthecynic]

Your quoting the NBC cesspool that has over-sampled dems by 24%.....

unskewedpolls.com

hahaha

Toto, I was polled today. It was the usual automated number pushing answer system. What my input was follows:
35 yo, Latino female, 4 years college, strong democrat (there were different levels) strongly disapprove Clinton, strongly disapprove Obama, strongly approve Trump and will vote for Trump.
How is that for accurate polling....?

Rush says thus happens a lot

That is because LimpBoy thinks everyone is lying scum like him.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Your quoting the NBC cesspool that has over-sampled dems by 24%.....

unskewedpolls.com

hahaha

Toto, I was polled today. It was the usual automated number pushing answer system. What my input was follows:
35 yo, Latino female, 4 years college, strong democrat (there were different levels) strongly disapprove Clinton, strongly disapprove Obama, strongly approve Trump and will vote for Trump.
How is that for accurate polling....?

How would an Independent even be able to respond to such a poll?