Hey Toro and William The Wie

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Dr Grump, Jun 2, 2011.

  1. Dr Grump
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    Dr Grump Gold Member

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    Can you explain in plain English to this Finance-o-phobe what this meansn the short and long run..

    Factories, workers hit by weakening US recovery i
     
  2. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    In the very short run, it may mean that ADP is a bad statistical assessor. We will see on Friday from the jobs report if they are correct.

    I'm guessing they will be, more or less, and jobs will come in weaker than expected. In the near term, it will confirm that the economy is slowing.

    In the intermediate term, it confirms that recessions caused by asset price collapses and ruined bank balance sheets take a long time to recover. This is a textbook balance sheet recession/recovery.

    Long term, it means nothing.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2011
  3. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    Another guy to ask is pinqy. He's a professional economist.
     
  4. iamwhatiseem
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    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

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    Also companies that laid off over the past few years found out how to get by without those employees when things started looking up. I don't see any real job growth for several years to come...what is out there that would create it?
     
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  5. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    The ADP report is based on data from about 340,000 businesses employing more than 21 million workers. It is supposed to be independent and fairly accurate.

    IMHO, some of this has gotta be the Mississippi flooding and the terrible tornados in the south and midsection of the country. And some of it may also be the inability of our elected leaders to work together on the debt/deficit and to get the economy growing and creating more jobs. Consumer confidence took a big hit in May, as did housing prices. None of this bodes well for the future, short, medium, or long term.
     
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  6. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    The market tends to be more skeptical of the ADP data than the BLS data.
     
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  7. FireFly
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    FireFly Bright F**ker

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    According to economist, Tornado & Flood damage is supposed to be good for the economy. They call it "Broken Window fallacy", I call it BS.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2011
  8. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    Could be, don't know enough to say otherwise. My understanding is that sometimes the ADP is higher and sometimes lower than the BLS numbers. No doubt they both get adjusted later.

    Geez though, what a terrible bunch of indicators lately. Gotta wonder if QE3 is on the horizon. I'm guessing yes, if Obama has any say in the matter.
     
  9. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    It's not called the DISMAL SCIENCE for nothing, ya know.
     
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  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    wiseacre got it right. The Mississippi barge network accounts directly or indirectly for about half of our GDP and that is down from what it was before the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway in 1959. The worst tornado year ever did not help either.
     
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