Rinata
Gold Member
- Oct 5, 2009
- 6,790
- 973
- 153
*** GOP losing ground with seniors? Whether its due to the current Medicare debate, the end of the health-care fight (in which the GOP clubbed Democrats on Medicare), or something else, Republicans are losing ground with seniors. In our combined NBC/WSJ polls for the first half of this year (so 4,800 total interviews, including 711 seniors), 44% of seniors identify themselves as Democrats, versus 35% who identify themselves as Republicans. So a nine-point spread. But in our merged NBC/WSJ polls from 2010 (12,502 interviews, including 1,931 seniors), Democrats held just a two-point edge among seniors, 42%-40%. Why is this important? Because last year -- when they won control of the House and made gains in the Senate -- Republicans overperformed with seniors. According to the exit polls, the GOP won the senior vote by more than 20 percentage points, 59%-38%. But in 2008, McCain beat Obama among seniors by eight points, 53%-45%. And in 2006, Democrats split the senior vote, 49%-49%.
*** GOP losing ground in the Midwest, too: Something similar is happening in the Midwest, too. Per the merged 2011 NBC/WSJ polls, 42% of respondents in that region identify with Democrats, versus 31% who identify with Republicans. So an 11-point spread. Yet back in our 2010 merged data, the Dem edge was just four points, 41%-37%. Whats more, party identification in the other regions (Northeast, South, West) is essentially unchanged from 2010 to 2011. These shifts -- among seniors and folks in the Midwest -- explain why some Democrats dont want the White House to budge an inch on Medicare and Social Security in the debt talks.
First Read - First Thoughts: A crucial 72 hours
*** GOP losing ground in the Midwest, too: Something similar is happening in the Midwest, too. Per the merged 2011 NBC/WSJ polls, 42% of respondents in that region identify with Democrats, versus 31% who identify with Republicans. So an 11-point spread. Yet back in our 2010 merged data, the Dem edge was just four points, 41%-37%. Whats more, party identification in the other regions (Northeast, South, West) is essentially unchanged from 2010 to 2011. These shifts -- among seniors and folks in the Midwest -- explain why some Democrats dont want the White House to budge an inch on Medicare and Social Security in the debt talks.
First Read - First Thoughts: A crucial 72 hours