GOP Losing Ground

[Rinata]

*** GOP losing ground with seniors? Whether it’s due to the current Medicare debate, the end of the health-care fight (in which the GOP clubbed Democrats on Medicare), or something else, Republicans are losing ground with seniors. In our combined NBC/WSJ polls for the first half of this year (so 4,800 total interviews, including 711 seniors), 44% of seniors identify themselves as Democrats, versus 35% who identify themselves as Republicans. So a nine-point spread. But in our merged NBC/WSJ polls from 2010 (12,502 interviews, including 1,931 seniors), Democrats held just a two-point edge among seniors, 42%-40%. Why is this important? Because last year -- when they won control of the House and made gains in the Senate -- Republicans overperformed with seniors. According to the exit polls, the GOP won the senior vote by more than 20 percentage points, 59%-38%. But in 2008, McCain beat Obama among seniors by eight points, 53%-45%. And in 2006, Democrats split the senior vote, 49%-49%.

*** GOP losing ground in the Midwest, too: Something similar is happening in the Midwest, too. Per the merged 2011 NBC/WSJ polls, 42% of respondents in that region identify with Democrats, versus 31% who identify with Republicans. So an 11-point spread. Yet back in our 2010 merged data, the Dem edge was just four points, 41%-37%. What’s more, party identification in the other regions (Northeast, South, West) is essentially unchanged from 2010 to 2011. These shifts -- among seniors and folks in the Midwest -- explain why some Democrats don’t want the White House to budge an inch on Medicare and Social Security in the debt talks.

First Read - First Thoughts: A crucial 72 hours

 

[cloudy]

*** GOP losing ground with seniors? Whether it’s due to the current Medicare debate, the end of the health-care fight (in which the GOP clubbed Democrats on Medicare), or something else, Republicans are losing ground with seniors. In our combined NBC/WSJ polls for the first half of this year (so 4,800 total interviews, including 711 seniors), 44% of seniors identify themselves as Democrats, versus 35% who identify themselves as Republicans. So a nine-point spread. But in our merged NBC/WSJ polls from 2010 (12,502 interviews, including 1,931 seniors), Democrats held just a two-point edge among seniors, 42%-40%. Why is this important? Because last year -- when they won control of the House and made gains in the Senate -- Republicans overperformed with seniors. According to the exit polls, the GOP won the senior vote by more than 20 percentage points, 59%-38%. But in 2008, McCain beat Obama among seniors by eight points, 53%-45%. And in 2006, Democrats split the senior vote, 49%-49%.

*** GOP losing ground in the Midwest, too: Something similar is happening in the Midwest, too. Per the merged 2011 NBC/WSJ polls, 42% of respondents in that region identify with Democrats, versus 31% who identify with Republicans. So an 11-point spread. Yet back in our 2010 merged data, the Dem edge was just four points, 41%-37%. What’s more, party identification in the other regions (Northeast, South, West) is essentially unchanged from 2010 to 2011. These shifts -- among seniors and folks in the Midwest -- explain why some Democrats don’t want the White House to budge an inch on Medicare and Social Security in the debt talks.

First Read - First Thoughts: A crucial 72 hours

Mongo say (me) thinks if the white house doesn't stop talking stripping social security and medicare, my beloved Democrats will sink in the polls too.
Three things need to happen in my opinion:
1. President Obama needs to grow a backbone and stop pandering to the RIGHT.
I am of the opinion lately that Obama is a D.I.N.O. (democrat in name only).
2. Democrats need to stop the rhetoric of putting medicare and SS on the budget chopping block.
3. Democrats need to have unity and all need to get on the SAME PAGE.
If these 3 things do not happen, the Democrats can kiss 2012 goodbye.