Late Upsets Are Rare, but Have Happened Gallup 10-28-04 - Obama up by 10 Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded) 53% - 43%. There have been only two times in modern history where someone had a lead in the Gallup polls bust lost the election this far out. 1980 and 2000. Carter lost in 1980 because of the Presidential debate. All of the debates are over with and most of the electorate have made up their minds. In 2000, Bush lost the popular vote but won the electoral college vote. Audio tape not withstanding, this election is Obama's to lose.