FOX mid-August poll (Prez matchups, nomination polling) sets a new record

[Statistikhengst]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/08/14/fox-news-poll-sanders-gains-on-clinton/
1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0, conducted from August 11-13, 2015.

There are 4 two-way presidential matchups (values in parentheses are from the last FOX poll before this one):

Clinton (D) 42 (43) / Bush (R) 44 (43), margin = Bush +2 (0)
Clinton (D) 44 (45) / Rubio (R) 46 (44), margin = Rubio +2 (Clinton +1)
Clinton (D) 47 (51) / Trump (R) 42 (34), margin = Clinton +5 (+17)
Clinton (D) 47 (45) / Fiorina (R) 40 (39), margin = Clinton +7 (+6)

Of the four 2-way matchups, the margin moved 1 points toward Clinton against Fiorina, 2 points toward Bush against* Bush, 3 points toward Rubio against* Rubio, but 12 full points toward Trump against* Trump.

*against means "Hillary vs."...

Only the +5 and +7 against Trump and Fiorina, respectively, are outside of the MoE.
The matchups against Bush and Rubio, both being 2-point spreads, are still statistical ties, just like they were last time.

But FOX has set a new record with this poll because there is not just one 3-way matchup, there are three of them:

Clinton (D) 42 / Bush (R) 30 / Trump (I) 22, margin = Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 40 / Rubio (R) 29 / Trump (I) 23, margin = Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 42 / Fiorina (R) 24 / Trump (I) 25, margin = Clinton +18


So, aside from the Clinton/Bush/Trump 3-way matchup that we have now seen in 4 other national polls, for the first time, Rubio and Fiorina were also tested in a 3-way matchup. So, this indeed sets a historical record for the 2016 race: the first pollster to poll, record and publicize more than one presidential 3-way match in a poll.

GOP nomination - national
Trump 25 (26)
Carson 12 (7)
Cruz 10 (6)
Bush, J 9 (15)
Huckabee 6 (6)
Walker 6 (9)
Fiorina 5 (2)
Kasich 4 (3)
Rubio 4 (5)
Paul 3 (5)
Christie 3 (3)
all others, 1 or below

margin: Trump +13

DEM nomination - national
Clinton 49
Sanders 30
Biden 10
Webb 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +19

The FOX poll also asked about the debate performance from August 6th. This can be explained in four charts, which are pretty self-explanatory:

Interesting to note that Fiorina's really good standing from the debate has barely moved her polling numbers. And it really looks as if the GOP electorate has soured on Rand Paul. We should also note that both Ben Carson and John Kasich were well received by Republican voters based on their respective debate performances, according to this poll.

I also think that the charts show that Donald Trump evokes very strong feelings among Republican voters, either strongly positive, or strongly negative. When one candidate gets the highest "most likeable" and the highest "most unlikeable" % in the same poll, that is indeed a data-point worth watching.

One more final comment:

In its grand tradition, while other pollsters are finding Hillary well above 50%, FOX, like Rasmussen, always finds a way to get a Democrat way under 50 and find many more undecideds than most other pollsters. FOX's verified mathematical bias from 2012 was 4 points to the Right. So, a Hillary +7 in a FOX poll may very well be a +11 in real life. A "49%" for a Democrat in a FOX poll is akin to 54-55% in other standard polling. This is a phenomenon that I can mathematically prove, for I have been watching it for years, now.

So, that's the data from this poll.

 

[Pete7469]

When someone who doesn't have Stalinfascist of the C-FAGs on ignore reads this, please interpret the bullshit so I can ridicule it.


Thanks,

 

[Obiwan]

Actually, the poll is insignificant, since Hillary will probably be on her way to prison by then.

Clinton s team went from nonchalant to nervous over e-mail controversy - The Washington Post
The investigation is being overseen by two veteran prosecutors in the Justice Department’s National Security Division. One of them helped manage the prosecution of David H. Petraeus, the retired general and former CIA director who was sentenced to probation earlier this year after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of mishandling classified materials. He was also fined $100,000.

 

[Derideo_Te]

FauxNoise and Repubsmussen do have a bias to the right so they are always pandering to their base.

This early on those polls are more akin to wishes and a desire to move the electorate in the direction they want to push it.

If they can deceive the electorate into believing that there is a possibility that their candidate can win they will do it. Just look at how many extremist rightwingers were convinced that McCain and Romney were going to win.