First big primary day of 2014

Statistikhengst

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Today, May 6th, 2014, there are primaries in Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina.

Here the GREEN PAPERS links to those elections:

Indiana 2014 General Election

North Carolina 2014 General Election

Ohio 2014 General Election

In Indiana, the DEM primary for IN-04 and the GOP primary for IN-07 could be interesting. Richard Mourdock, who was beaten by Joe Connelly for the Senate in 2012, is still up for re-election as Treasurer, but not he is being primaried by 3 other Republicans.

In NC, the Republican primary for the Senate is critical, because there is still a runoff clause in NC law that says that if Tillis (R) comes in under 40%, there can be a runoff. The NC senatorial race in the Fall is shaping up to be a marquee race, a seat that the Republicans want to capture and the Democrats want to hold.

In the congressional races: NC-02 could be interesting because Renee Ellmers (R) is getting primaried. American Idol winner Clay Aiken (D) is on the ballot for the Democratic nomination. NC-06 will be an open election and there are NINE Republicans on the ballot for that primary. NC-12 could be interesting on the Democratic side: Mel Watt (D) is retiring and SEVEN Democrats are on the ballot in that primary.

There are 7 third-parties registered in NC.


In Ohio, the gubernatorial race could become a marquee race in the Fall, but the primaries themselves are essentially sleepers.

In congressional races, in OH-08 (used to be OH-02), John Boehner is being primaried from three other contenders. I suspect he will win the primary. OH-15 could be interesting, because it is likely to be a horserace in the Fall.

Similar to NC, Ohio has 8 third parties in the state, not necessary in every race, but they are registered.



If history is our guide, turnout will be light.


I will be posting links to SOS's and to AP election links later.
 
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I was only the 166th person to vote at my polling place this afternoon. Logged in to USMB and on the top and side of the page were ads from the county commissioner I voted for. Scary. Oh, and at the polling place they asked if I had a picture ID. I started to pull it out and they said you don't need it now but you will in 2016.
 
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No run-off election in N.C. Thom Tillis is the projected winner. It's bad news for democrats but CNN spins it as "establishment GOP #1 - Tea Party #0". Tillis was backed by both establishment and Tea Party republicans and will easily beat the incumbent democrat this November.
 
Clay Aiken is in big trouble in NC in November. If he survives the primary. He finished second on American Idol and second on Celebrity Apprentice and will finish second here. He had tons of ads on local TV and radio and yard signs all over the place. Never seen or heard any ads from his primary opponent at all. Not one. And Aiken only won by 372 votes.
 
No run-off election in N.C. Thom Tillis is the projected winner. It's bad news for democrats but CNN spins it as "establishment GOP #1 - Tea Party #0". Tillis was backed by both establishment and Tea Party republicans and will easily beat the incumbent democrat this November.

Tillis is a state rep with not much recognition. Also polls have Hagan 1 point ahead of him right now.

Also tea party groups were heavily invested in Brannon and Harris. Rove's Crossroads group is the main reason Tillis came out ahead.
 
Clay Aiken is in big trouble in NC in November. If he survives the primary. He finished second on American Idol and second on Celebrity Apprentice and will finish second here. He had tons of ads on local TV and radio and yard signs all over the place. Never seen or heard any ads from his primary opponent at all. Not one. And Aiken only won by 372 votes.


But he's in a heavily red district to begin with.
 
Clay Aiken is in big trouble in NC in November. If he survives the primary. He finished second on American Idol and second on Celebrity Apprentice and will finish second here. He had tons of ads on local TV and radio and yard signs all over the place. Never seen or heard any ads from his primary opponent at all. Not one. And Aiken only won by 372 votes.

It would be nothing short of a miracle for Aiken to win anyway...The second district in NC is rated R+10 by cook.
 
Clay Aiken is in big trouble in NC in November. If he survives the primary. He finished second on American Idol and second on Celebrity Apprentice and will finish second here. He had tons of ads on local TV and radio and yard signs all over the place. Never seen or heard any ads from his primary opponent at all. Not one. And Aiken only won by 372 votes.

It would be nothing short of a miracle for Aiken to win anyway...The second district in NC is rated R+10 by cook.


Yes, but alone winning a primary means a start to a political career. Many pols whose names are now very common ended up losing some of their beginning races. FDR LOST his vice-presidential bid with Cox in 1920. 12 years later, he was our President.
 
A shot in the Foot.

a defeat for the Tea Party is a victory for America ... but not so much for the Republicans who still
need their vote in November.

.
 
A shot in the Foot.

a defeat for the Tea Party is a victory for America ... but not so much for the Republicans who still
need their vote in November.

.


Do you mean the NC rep sen primary?

Tillis is actually just about as "Tea Party" as his two Tea Party opponents were and I suspect he will tack even harder to the right to try to win the election in November.
 
A shot in the Foot.

a defeat for the Tea Party is a victory for America ... but not so much for the Republicans who still
need their vote in November.

.


Do you mean the NC rep sen primary?

Tillis is actually just about as "Tea Party" as his two Tea Party opponents were and I suspect he will tack even harder to the right to try to win the election in November.

Yeah, the actual differences between Brannon and Tillis is actually very small in policy terms.

Tillis may actually be the more bold conservative of the two honestly.
 

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