Even If Ron Paul Runs Third Party, Wouldn't It Take Away From Obama's 40% Voter Base?

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

This is something to ponder over. Ron Paul tends to lean more Democratic, so wouldn't you think he would eat away at Obama's already locked in 40% of total votes in 2012?

For the good of the country, it's best he not run. Should he run, he will probably get around 8% of the vote. And not all of that would hit the 55% expected for Romney. Also keep in mind that , wouldn't Ron Paul have to acquire a minimum amount of signatures to be on the ballet?
And odds are Ron Paul may not do well in many swing states being most of those are very determined to boot out Obama.
What do you guys all think would happen should Paul run as a LibbyTariontan?

 

[J.E.D]

Since there are things about Ron Paul that appeal to both extreme left and extreme right, he would take votes from both Dems and Repubs.

 

[Avorysuds]

This is something to ponder over. Ron Paul tends to lean more Democratic, so wouldn't you think he would eat away at Obama's already locked in 40% of total votes in 2012?

For the good of the country, it's best he not run. Should he run, he will probably get around 8% of the vote. And not all of that would hit the 55% expected for Romney. Also keep in mind that , wouldn't Ron Paul have to acquire a minimum amount of signatures to be on the ballet?
And odds are Ron Paul may not do well in many swing states being most of those are very determined to boot out Obama.
What do you guys all think would happen should Paul run as a LibbyTariontan?

If Paul runs third party (and if he does not win the nomination I hope he does) the Republicans will prolly take by far the biggest hit.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

Ron Paul may even take a bite out of New York and California, being those states are in dire straights already, and Paul would be the alternative to Obama.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

well also keep in mind like I mentioned, we have to see if and which swing states will put him on the ballet, u know thats gonna start another war.

 

[PredFan]

I don't know a lot of people in NYC except my daughter, her boyfriend and their roommate. All voted for Obama last time, all would vote for Ron Paul this year.

 

[dblack]

Since there are things about Ron Paul that appeal to both extreme left and extreme right, he would take votes from both Dems and Repubs.

I sort of agree, but I don't think it's really the extremes as much as the moderates and independents. The thing is, Paul draws people who view politics along a different axis. Both major parties are dominated but authoritarian leaning politicians who want large, intrusive government. They just have different things they're interested in controlling.

I think RP would draw votes from people on both sides of the left/right split who label themselves 'fiscally conservative and socially liberal'. He'll also attract votes from people who are genuinely opposed to the warfare state, and that's growing concern in both parties.

I guess it depends on how you define them, but I don't think that any of the above descriptions fit 'extreme left' or 'extreme right'. My understanding of extreme leftists would be Marxists and progressives who would never be able to stomach RP's support of free markets. And people on the extreme right would never trust his libertarian views against legislating morality (drug war, etc..).

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

but isn't paul around 74 ? 75? Isn't that one reason they wouldn't vote for McCain? god forbid he dies in office?

 

[uptownlivin90]

It depends on who is VP is. If his VP is more conservative, then chances are he'll take votes from Republicans, if for some reason he was hit on the head with a rock and took Kucinich as his VP the left would crowd around him. Of course, then we'd all be screwed...

If he goes third party, I don't believe he has a chance though. Could be wrong, but he has to win the nomination to have a chance at beating Obama.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Ron Paul isn't going to run as a third party candidate so the point is moot.

 

[konradv]

IMO, if you have two anti-Obama candidates, that can only help Obama.

 

[dblack]

I'm actually hoping he runs as Gary Johnson's VP. That would be an awesome ticket.

 

[konradv]

I'm actually hoping he runs as Gary Johnson's VP. That would be an awesome ticket.

All bets are off, if he isn't on top of the ticket.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

we also have to see how he does in NH, SC and Florida. If he continues to get under 10%, why would he even want to run 3rd party if he can't get more than 10% of the vote in any primary?

 

[ladyliberal]

1. A serious Ron Paul run is pretty unlikely. Intrade only gives about 38% odds of Paul, Bloomberg, Trump, Palin *or* Bachmann running as an independent or third party candidate.

2. While Ron Paul does appeal to some Democrats, I don't think many would vote for him if there were a tight race between Obama and Romney. Paul's ideology doesn't fit perfectly with the GOP, but by any measure he is closer to the median GOP voter than the median Democratic voter. A serious Ron Paul bid would be a disaster for the GOP nominee (well, unless that nominee *was* Paul, which isn't impossible).

3. You seem to be drastically overestimating Romney's chances in the general election. A ten-point victory over Obama would be extremely unlikely. Intrade gives a noticeable edge to Obama, and even when it gave Obama about 80% odds of winning he only beat McCain by about 7 points. Also, the odds of the election hinging on either California or New York are minuscule.

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

So how old is Ron Paul? I have no idea, but if he's in the vicinity of 75, wouldn't that be a major factor?

 

[Teals_Of_Wonder]

and you would think that his son would talk him out of it for the sake of his future as a senator

 

[ShackledNation]

Here is how I predict the 2012 election. If Ron Paul does not win the GOP nomination, the GOP will not win the election. There is a large libertarian component of the GOP, and they support Ron Paul before the GOP. Even if Ron Paul does not run third party, I doubt that his core supporters will vote for the GOP candidate. This is even more true now, with a majority of Americans desiring a third party. If Romney wins the nomination, Paul supporters and libertarian minded Republicans (including myself) will defect from the Republican party in the election, either not voting or going third party. This will take enough votes away from the GOP to give Obama a win. Not many people support the GOP, they simply dislike Obama.

If Ron Paul is the nominee, I can see him pulling in plenty of independent votes, and many democrats as well. I doubt mainstream republicans will suddenly vote for Obama or third party.

I also see 2012 as a potential for a third party or independent to win the presidency, albeit the chances now seem slim, and a very strong candidate would need to come forth.

 

[dblack]

So how old is Ron Paul? I have no idea, but if he's in the vicinity of 75, wouldn't that be a major factor?

Maybe. He announced, at the beginning of his campaign, that he would NOT be seeking re-election to congress. I suppose we could take that one of two ways - either he's tired and ready to throw in the towel, or he is ready to cut ties with Republicans and run as an independent or Libertarian.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

This is something to ponder over. Ron Paul tends to lean more Democratic, so wouldn't you think he would eat away at Obama's already locked in 40% of total votes in 2012?

For the good of the country, it's best he not run. Should he run, he will probably get around 8% of the vote. And not all of that would hit the 55% expected for Romney. Also keep in mind that , wouldn't Ron Paul have to acquire a minimum amount of signatures to be on the ballet?
And odds are Ron Paul may not do well in many swing states being most of those are very determined to boot out Obama.
What do you guys all think would happen should Paul run as a LibbyTariontan?

Most of the people that would vote for Paul would never vote for Romney, simple fact. If Paul ran on a third party ticket most of his votes would come from people who would stay home rather than vote if he did not run. He would shave a couple of points off Romney, but not enough, by itself, for Romney to loose on that basis alone.

By the way, you are making quite a few massively unsupported assumptions here, none of which I agree with. I am just pointing out that, even if Romney is going to get 55% of the vote while Obama gets 40%, the remaining 5% would not negatively impact Romney.