Estimated TARP losses reduced to $50-66b; could break even

Sheldon

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Apr 2, 2010
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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/business/01tarp.html?_r=2&hp

But the once-unthinkable possibility that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program could end up costing far less, or even nothing, became more likely on Thursday with the news that the government had negotiated a plan with the American International Group to begin repaying taxpayers.
The Congressional Budget Office, which had a slightly higher loss estimate initially, in August reduced that to $66 billion.

Now Treasury reckons that taxpayers will lose less than $50 billion at worst, but at best could break even or even make money. Its best-case assumptions, however, assume that A.I.G. and the auto companies will remain profitable and that Treasury will get a good price as it sells its corporate shares in coming years.
Whatever the final losses from housing, auto companies, A.I.G. or smaller banks, those will be offset by taxpayers’ profits from the big banks that have been the focus of their ire since 2008.

Good news. But if TARP proves to be a moneymaker for the government, it could lessen the distinctive to bailout large corporations in the future.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/business/01tarp.html?_r=2&hp

But the once-unthinkable possibility that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program could end up costing far less, or even nothing, became more likely on Thursday with the news that the government had negotiated a plan with the American International Group to begin repaying taxpayers.
The Congressional Budget Office, which had a slightly higher loss estimate initially, in August reduced that to $66 billion.

Now Treasury reckons that taxpayers will lose less than $50 billion at worst, but at best could break even or even make money. Its best-case assumptions, however, assume that A.I.G. and the auto companies will remain profitable and that Treasury will get a good price as it sells its corporate shares in coming years.
Whatever the final losses from housing, auto companies, A.I.G. or smaller banks, those will be offset by taxpayers’ profits from the big banks that have been the focus of their ire since 2008.

Good news. But if TARP proves to be a moneymaker for the government, it could lessen the distinctive to bailout large corporations in the future.

A profit means the government will have carte blanche to hand money to any company it deems "troubled", from here on out, and practically no one will complain except for the right.

The left and the center will pretty much rubber stamp it.
 
Good news. But if TARP proves to be a moneymaker for the government, it could lessen the distinctive to bailout large corporations in the future.
Or it could only encourage the little bastards to continue their idiotic social engineering in the marketplace, under the pretext that they can fix everything at will, by printing up a few barge loads of money.
 
Good news. But if TARP proves to be a moneymaker for the government, it could lessen the distinctive to bailout large corporations in the future.

This is going to lead to euthanasia and implantation of chips under our skin.

Pretty soon, you will have to submit an application in triplicate to have sex with your wife!
 
Good news. But if TARP proves to be a moneymaker for the government, it could lessen the distinctive to bailout large corporations in the future.
Or it could only encourage the little bastards to continue their idiotic social engineering in the marketplace, under the pretext that they can fix everything at will, by printing up a few barge loads of money.

That's basically what I meant with the "lessen the disincentive" double negative.
 
TARP was an essentially bipartisan piece of legislation, in that it was crafted by the Bush administration, supported by both Democrats and many Republicans, then taken over by the Obama administration.

The anger against it, paradoxically, takes no heed of the fact that TARP, along with the broader government rescue efforts, has been arguably a success. It will ultimately cost far less than the initial $700 billion price tag that stunned a nation. Major banks are profitable and can raise capital. Credit spreads—a key measurement of risk—are down to pre-crisis levels.

The White House now projects TARP will lose at most $50 billion, down from $105 billion projected earlier this year. Privately, Treasury Department officials say the U.S. may not lose a dime, and could ultimately make money depending on how some investments fare, in particular American International Group Inc. and General Motors Corp. In a $14 trillion economy, $50 billion is less than 1% of economic output.

"The incredible irony here is that TARP probably succeeded wildly beyond anybody's imagination," said Alan Blinder, a Princeton University economist who co-authored a paper crediting the administration's economic policies with preventing a second Great Depression. "Suppose the original TARP bill had been to spend $50 billion to avert a catastrophe. Would anyone have blinked?"

Bailout Ends, Not Anger - WSJ.com
 
disincentive?

I think you can thank Team Obama for this result.

Without going and looking it up, I thought Tarp and the Stimulus were the last things Bush did as President. The ONLY two things he did that worked.

8 years of failure and the only two things he did that worked are hated by his base.:lol:
 
disincentive?

I think you can thank Team Obama for this result.

Without going and looking it up, I thought Tarp and the Stimulus were the last things Bush did as President. The ONLY two things he did that worked.

8 years of failure and the only two things he did that worked are hated by his base.:lol:

And as soon as team Obama took the WH they changed the rules of the game pissing off the banks who felt like they had been sucker punched. They proceeded to repay tarp loans as fast as possible to eliminate the authority that being on the hook for those loans gave team Obama over their salaries and business practices.

Ask any banker; under Bush TARP was a bailout, under Obama it became a Trojan Horse.
 
Without going and looking it up, I thought Tarp and the Stimulus were the last things Bush did as President. The ONLY two things he did that worked.

The stimulus was the new Dem Majority's first move upon taking the WH. It was a pork bonanza masquerading as a recovery initiative.
 
Without going and looking it up, I thought Tarp and the Stimulus were the last things Bush did as President. The ONLY two things he did that worked.

The stimulus was the new Dem Majority's first move upon taking the WH. It was a pork bonanza masquerading as a recovery initiative.

You made me go look it up. Why couldn't you?

=================================

Bush signs stimulus package into law

WASHINGTON — President Bush on Wednesday signed a multibillion-dollar economic rescue package on Wednesday that means $300 to $1,200 rebates for many American households.

Bush called the measure "a booster shot for our economy" to stave off a recession.

Bush signs stimulus package into law - Business - Stocks & economy - msnbc.com

080213-bushsigning-hmed-11a.grid-6x2.jpg


I guess Bush was the only Republican who didn't want the country to fail. He only started his schemes because in his limited imagination, they worked. Funny, the last two did.
 
Obama was pretty smart to light a fire under the feet of those TARP recipients. It's amazing how fast they want to pay the taxpayer back since Obama converted non-voting preferred shares to voting stock. Yet, it had the right wings' panties in a collective wad, with shouts of Obama's secret socialist plan to take over industry.

I also think there was enough "moral hazard" fear in the bailout, between Bear Sterns failing, and Lehman Brothers being gobbled up for chump change.
 
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that is a different stimulus than The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 — President Obama's $787 billion stimulus
Recovery Act: How Obama's Stimulus Is Changing America - TIME

altho it was a stimulus and he did sign it 6 months before the election. It was only $168 billion.

Neither was big enough.

Republicans, for some odd reason, believe "tax cuts" work. Bush passed a 2.4 trillion dollar tax cut, over 52% went to the top 1% of Americans, and what happened to the economy?

It seemed to work for a minute. Because those companies that received all that money, brought Chinese and Indians over here to learn American jobs from the very Americans they were replacing. Once they learned those jobs, they were moved to those countries where workers could be paid 100 dollars a month.

To add insult to injury, Republicans made sure those companies were given subsidies.

That's right, Americans had to train the very people who were taking their jobs. How do I know? It happened at the company I worked at. Imagine getting paid to teach Chinese who go back to their country and wait for your job.

This is why Republicans fight Obama because he wants to fix it. I sincerely believe they just don't like him because he is black. It's why they call him Muslim and Terrorist and Marxist and Communist and Fascist and say he wasn't born here. They want to make him, "Not one of us".

Republicans want to vote back into office the very people who destroyed the economy.

Let me ask, "Do Republicans feel Americans should be making 100 dollars a month without any benefits or days off?" Because it seems like they do.
 
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TARP was an essentially bipartisan piece of legislation, in that it was crafted by the Bush administration, supported by both Democrats and many Republicans, then taken over by the Obama administration.

The anger against it, paradoxically, takes no heed of the fact that TARP, along with the broader government rescue efforts, has been arguably a success. It will ultimately cost far less than the initial $700 billion price tag that stunned a nation. Major banks are profitable and can raise capital. Credit spreads—a key measurement of risk—are down to pre-crisis levels.

The White House now projects TARP will lose at most $50 billion, down from $105 billion projected earlier this year. Privately, Treasury Department officials say the U.S. may not lose a dime, and could ultimately make money depending on how some investments fare, in particular American International Group Inc. and General Motors Corp. In a $14 trillion economy, $50 billion is less than 1% of economic output.

"The incredible irony here is that TARP probably succeeded wildly beyond anybody's imagination," said Alan Blinder, a Princeton University economist who co-authored a paper crediting the administration's economic policies with preventing a second Great Depression. "Suppose the original TARP bill had been to spend $50 billion to avert a catastrophe. Would anyone have blinked?"

Bailout Ends, Not Anger - WSJ.com

thx..

the money shot imho-

TARP now appears in numerous GOP campaign commercials being run against Democrats, usually lumped in with the stimulus package and the health-care revamp as examples of government overreach. In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry repeatedly referred to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who was challenging him for the Republican nomination, as Kay "Bailout" Hutchison.
 
Obama was pretty smart to light a fire under the feet of those TARP recipients. It's amazing how fast they want to pay the taxpayer back since Obama converted non-voting preferred shares to voting stock. Yet, it had the right wings' panties in a collective wad, with shouts of Obama's secret socialist plan to take over industry.

What Obama did was legally wrong, and amounted to breach of contract. It reinforced an idea central to the US globally. It said to the world that America's word is not bound by law and is only as good as it's current leadership.

BUT it actually did force TARP to be wound down quickly with few losses YET to the taxpayer.

But we still don't know when AIG is gonna be solvent or how many more bailouts they may need.

Some firms ended up subsidizing the loses of others.
 
The one thing that gets lost in all this is the massive cost of moral hazard. As stunning as this may sound IMHO there has been very little change on Wall Street. I have little doubt that we will be in another massive banking crisis within 20 years if not sooner.

The other massive cost has been that these policies are laying the groundwork for future inflation. $700 billion will look like a drop in the bucket if inflation reignites.
 
Obama was pretty smart to light a fire under the feet of those TARP recipients. It's amazing how fast they want to pay the taxpayer back since Obama converted non-voting preferred shares to voting stock. Yet, it had the right wings' panties in a collective wad, with shouts of Obama's secret socialist plan to take over industry.

What Obama did was legally wrong, and amounted to breach of contract. It reinforced an idea central to the US globally. It said to the world that America's word is not bound by law and is only as good as it's current leadership.

BUT it actually did force TARP to be wound down quickly with few losses YET to the taxpayer.

But we still don't know when AIG is gonna be solvent or how many more bailouts they may need.

Some firms ended up subsidizing the loses of others.

What court found Obama's actions to be legally wrong? What Obama did was enact the laws passed by congress.
 
And as soon as team Obama took the WH they changed the rules of the game pissing off the banks who felt like they had been sucker punched. They proceeded to repay tarp loans as fast as possible to eliminate the authority that being on the hook for those loans gave team Obama over their salaries and business practices.

Ask any banker; under Bush TARP was a bailout, under Obama it became a Trojan Horse.

Obama was pretty smart to light a fire under the feet of those TARP recipients. It's amazing how fast they want to pay the taxpayer back since Obama converted non-voting preferred shares to voting stock. Yet, it had the right wings' panties in a collective wad, with shouts of Obama's secret socialist plan to take over industry.

I also think there was enough "moral hazard" fear in the bailout, between Bear Sterns failing, and Lehman Brothers being gobbled up for chump change.

Good point. So maybe a way to reduce the moral hazard of bailouts is to attach a bunch of inconvenient strings to the package, making a bailout so unattractive to the recipient that bankruptcy would seem the better option.
 
that is a different stimulus than The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 — President Obama's $787 billion stimulus
Recovery Act: How Obama's Stimulus Is Changing America - TIME

altho it was a stimulus and he did sign it 6 months before the election. It was only $168 billion.

The $767 billion recovery act cost was for a 10 year period, no? a 10 year cost of the programs instituted, with it front loaded on the first couple of years?
 

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