Ernie S.
Diamond Member
It appears that Gallup has changed how they weight their poll. They may be way off the mark, but it seems to me that they wouldn't intentionally damage their reputation. I would think that something they have seen has caused them to reexamine their methods.fivethirtyeight doesn't skew things.
again... i think he was pointing out that the RCP isn't reflecting what other polls are because of gallup.
that said, i don't discount the RCP average, i rely on it most of the time and still reference it. i just question it because of the weird gallup numbers and think that it's confusing the realty... someone is very wrong. and can it be everyone BUT gallup that's wrong? i don't know. truly.
Odd... You don't mention the weird IBD/TIPP poll that has Barry +6 which is also part of the RCP average...
it hadn't come up...
i don't think anyone believes either of them is 6 or 7 points up or down nationally. fair point.
Now, they may be wrong.... But they may be right. (and it might just be a lunatic I'm looking for) BUT the fact remains, they are not intentionally damaging their own credibility.
What if they are right, Jill?