Electoral Map agrees almost to the EV

[Ernie S.]

fivethirtyeight doesn't skew things.

again... i think he was pointing out that the RCP isn't reflecting what other polls are because of gallup.

that said, i don't discount the RCP average, i rely on it most of the time and still reference it. i just question it because of the weird gallup numbers and think that it's confusing the realty... someone is very wrong. and can it be everyone BUT gallup that's wrong? i don't know. truly.

Odd... You don't mention the weird IBD/TIPP poll that has Barry +6 which is also part of the RCP average...

it hadn't come up...

i don't think anyone believes either of them is 6 or 7 points up or down nationally. fair point.

It appears that Gallup has changed how they weight their poll. They may be way off the mark, but it seems to me that they wouldn't intentionally damage their reputation. I would think that something they have seen has caused them to reexamine their methods.
Now, they may be wrong.... But they may be right. (and it might just be a lunatic I'm looking for) BUT the fact remains, they are not intentionally damaging their own credibility.

What if they are right, Jill?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Odd... You don't mention the weird IBD/TIPP poll that has Barry +6 which is also part of the RCP average...

it hadn't come up...

i don't think anyone believes either of them is 6 or 7 points up or down nationally. fair point.

It appears that Gallup has changed how they weight their poll. They may be way off the mark, but it seems to me that they wouldn't intentionally damage their reputation. I would think that something they have seen has caused them to reexamine their methods.
Now, they may be wrong.... But they may be right. (and it might just be a lunatic I'm looking for) BUT the fact remains, they are not intentionally damaging their own credibility.

What if they are right, Jill?

So you're agreeing that all those people a month or two ago who said Gallup was skewing towards Obama, which would also constitute intentionally damaging their own credibility,

because of that lawsuit,

those people were fools to think that?

 

[Ernie S.]

it hadn't come up...

i don't think anyone believes either of them is 6 or 7 points up or down nationally. fair point.

It appears that Gallup has changed how they weight their poll. They may be way off the mark, but it seems to me that they wouldn't intentionally damage their reputation. I would think that something they have seen has caused them to reexamine their methods.
Now, they may be wrong.... But they may be right. (and it might just be a lunatic I'm looking for) BUT the fact remains, they are not intentionally damaging their own credibility.

What if they are right, Jill?

So you're agreeing that all those people a month or two ago who said Gallup was skewing towards Obama, which would also constitute intentionally damaging their own credibility,

because of that lawsuit,

those people were fools to think that?

Not at all. I've been saying for 2 months that the way the pollsters were weighting their numbers was suspect. I was saying that I trusted the polls with the best past performance and that I was holding the most credibility in Rasmussen.

I'm still saying that

I still am skeptical of Gallup, but wonder if they know something the rest don't.

ETA: Could you link to the lawsuit you referred to? I remember hearing something, but didn't research it.

 

[Moonglow]

Donald has Beirbets college tape of Obama. Ha! Gas is $3.16 in Neosho, Mo.

 

[Ernie S.]

Donald has Beirbets college tape of Obama. Ha! Gas is $3.16 in Neosho, Mo.

What was it when obama took office?

 

[paulitician]

with fivethirtyeight.com

ElectoralVote

RCP is the odd ball

You left wing loons are a laugh a minute. For months you all were posting RCP and calling it the "Bible of Romney's loss" ...now it's not crdible.

What a bunch of assholes.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Oregon now a tossup? Whoa.

 

[paulitician]

Even the Wingnuts at NBC have this Election even. Let the mass Obamabot Crash begin.

 

[Zander]

The last hope of discouraged liberals.......It's Nate Silver!! Boy Genius!!!

 

[g5000]

The Donald says he has the goods on Owebama, and he will dump the story on Wednesday:

Donald Trump claims Barack Obama bombshell

Donald Trump claims Barack Obama bombshell - Bobby Cervantes - POLITICO.com

Oh, great. Another waterlogged "bombshell". Can't wait...

.

 

[jwoodie]

The recent swing in the left wing "polls" reflects a changing strategy from discouraging Romney voters (big Obama lead) to encouraging Obama voters (close election).

 

[candycorn]

with fivethirtyeight.com

ElectoralVote

RCP is the odd ball

RCP takes an average of the polling data and as a result will be more conservative in their estimates. WI, MI, and PA are in the Obama column. You can also probably move IA there as well.

Looking good for Obama.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

All the righties looking exclusively at RCP... you DO realize that RCP is still, at this point projecting an Electoral college victory for Obama, right?

 

[Dr.House]

with fivethirtyeight.com

ElectoralVote

RCP is the odd ball

RCP takes an average of the polling data and as a result will be more conservative in their estimates.

Can you explain how an average is more conservative?

 

[Ernie S.]

All the righties looking exclusively at RCP... you DO realize that RCP is still, at this point projecting an Electoral college victory for Obama, right?

No, they're not, fool. RCP has the EC at 201 obama 206 Romney.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

All the righties looking exclusively at RCP... you DO realize that RCP is still, at this point projecting an Electoral college victory for Obama, right?

No, they're not, fool. RCP has the EC at 201 obama 206 Romney.

Click the "no toss ups" tab, genius. Neither is winning with either 206 or 201.

 

[Ernie S.]

All the righties looking exclusively at RCP... you DO realize that RCP is still, at this point projecting an Electoral college victory for Obama, right?

No, they're not, fool. RCP has the EC at 201 obama 206 Romney.

Click the "no toss ups" tab, genius. Neither is winning with either 206 or 201.

I've looked. I see Romney with > 280. More likely ca 300.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

No, they're not, fool. RCP has the EC at 201 obama 206 Romney.

Click the "no toss ups" tab, genius. Neither is winning with either 206 or 201.

I've looked. I see Romney with > 280. More likely ca 300.

And now you are lying.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

And it was such an OBVIOUS lie, that takes all of 3 seconds to check. What is it with republicans thinking that lies will never get caught?

 

[tjvh]

Just two weeks ago, RCP was royalty. What happened?

Reality set in.

 

[Dr.House]

All the righties looking exclusively at RCP... you DO realize that RCP is still, at this point projecting an Electoral college victory for Obama, right?

No, they're not, fool. RCP has the EC at 201 obama 206 Romney.

Click the "no toss ups" tab, genius. Neither is winning with either 206 or 201.

Why are you discounting toss-ups?

There's a reason the category exists...

But if it helps you sleep better and not beat the shit out of your pets, then believe what you want...