Electoral Battle grounds

Discussion in 'Politics' started by MtnBiker, Mar 19, 2004.

  1. MtnBiker
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    MtnBiker Senior Member

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    Background: Colorado is generally considered to be winnable for the Democrats, but historically this has proven to be a solid GOP bastion. Only three times since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President has a Democrat carried this state (Truman, Johnson, and Clinton against Bush- with a big thanks to Perot taking 23% of the tally).

    Polling Data: Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
    9/8-10/03 Colorado Democratic Party NA RV 4% Bush 42% Unnamed Democrat 35% Bush +7
    12/15-16/03 Public Opinion Strategies NA LV 4.9% Bush 46% Unnamed Democrat 36% Bush +10


    Punditry: Colorado may end up being a single digit margin, but the results will likely never be in doubt. Strong Advantage Bush.

    Link
    That should be interesting for some people(person) who dislikes Bush.
     
  2. MtnBiker
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    MtnBiker Senior Member

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    I realize those polling numbers are dated. Don't worry as new number become availible I'll post them.
     
  3. lilcountriegal
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    lilcountriegal Senior Member

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    Hey MB... can you find these statistics for Pennsylvania?

    I did a quick search to find them on my own, but I just found useless Electoral College facts... what it means, how it works, etc.

    I'm actually kinda interested to see how Pennsylvania's past chalks up in this instance... PA is supposed to be one of those "can go either way" states.

    I cant seem to find the info on my own... :(
     
  4. MtnBiker
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    MtnBiker Senior Member

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    Hey you betcha Lil, here you go:

    F Pennsylvania
    Electoral Votes: 21
    2000 Result
    Gore 51%
    Bush 46%

    Background: Democrats have won this state 6 of the last 10 elections, with the first of Clinton's wins being attributable to Ross Perot being on the ballot (19%). Typically, the races in the Keystone state have been close. Pennsylvania started as leaning Bush last time, but has drifted to where it has a slight advantage for the Democrats. Republicans hold a 12-7 advantage in the numbers of Representatives, and hold both Senate seats. They also hold both chambers of the state legislature. The Democrats hold the major executive branch positions except for Attorney General, and have a significant registration advantage (48%-42%).


    Polling Data:

    Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin
    5/13/03 Quinnipiac Link 952 RV 3.2% Bush 56% Kerry 34% Bush +22
    10/9/03 Quinnipiac Link 1,116 RV 3% Bush 50% Kerry 43% Bush +7
    11/23/03 Muhlenberg College Link 430 RV 4.7% Bush 47% Kerry 40% Bush +7
    12/14/03 Quinnipiac Link 1,092 RV 3% Bush 50% Kerry 42% Bush +8
    2/18/04 Quinnipiac Ling 1,356 RV 2.7% Bush 45% Kerry 50% Dem +5
    2/22/04 Keystone Poll Link 392 RV 4.9% Bush 46% Kerry 47% Dem +1
    3/3/04 Pennsylvania Public Mind Link 1750 Adults 2.4% Bush 45% Kerry 47% Kerry +2
    3/11/04 Survey USA Link 802 RV 3.5% Bush 47% Kerry 49% Kerry +2
    3/15/04 Qunnipiac Link 1,022 RV (Nader not given as an option) 3 Bush 44% Kerry 45% Kerry +1
    3/15/04 Qunnipiac Link 1,022 RV (Nader given as an option) 3 Bush 44% Kerry 40% Bush +4


    Punditry: Right back into the Tossup column goes the key Keystone state. The President is showing good resiliency in the Rust Belt.

    link
     
  5. Avatar4321
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    Avatar4321 Diamond Member Gold Supporting Member

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    Looks like Kerry is having problems in PA:) good sign. The mor Swing states Bush is strong in the better. You know i think Pat Robertson was right and Bush is going to win in a landslide...cant tell you if God actually told him that one though.
     
  6. lilcountriegal
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    lilcountriegal Senior Member

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    Not to mix two threads, but I believe Rendell has opened the eyes of much of the voters of the Keystone state as to what the Democraps have to offer. We'll see come election time, but my guess is Pennsylvania will go to Bush this time.

    Thanks again for the link MB!!
     
  7. Palestinian Jew
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    Palestinian Jew Member

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    I'd like to see what the numbers are in colorado now that we don't have an unnamed democrat. Those PA numbers are really close.
     
  8. acludem
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    acludem VIP Member

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    My state of Missouri will be close as well. It's so early to try and predict anything yet. We don't even know who Kerry's running mate will be. I'm not even going to worry for another two or three months.

    acludem
     
  9. lilcountriegal
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    lilcountriegal Senior Member

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    I'm gonna predict Kerry, with Edwards as the Veep.

    However, I think they'd have a better chance if that ticket was vise-versa.
     
  10. acludem
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    acludem VIP Member

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    I certainly hope Kerry wins, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to Edwards as the running mate. That'd be an awfully strong ticket.

    acludem
     

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