el nino, 2010

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Jan 19, 2010.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Well, here it is, we are definately warmer, but very wet. Not at all our normal dry El Nino year so far.

    Be very interesting to see what other surprises this year will hold.


    Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

    Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

    El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) encompassing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index increased slightly with the most recent value reaching +1.8oC (Fig. 2). Consistent with this warmth, equatorial upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3). Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeded +2oC across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4), with the largest departures seen in the eastern part of the basin at the end of the month. Equatorial low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were also consistent with El Niño, along with a continuation of suppressed convection over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

    The models continue to disagree on the eventual peak strength of El Niño (Fig. 5). At this time, it is expected that the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST average will exceed +1.5oC during the winter (e.g. November-December-January and December-January-February). Regardless of its precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010.
     
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    Research Forecasts Atlantic Hurricanes with Greater Landfalls Due to El Nino Modoki
    Science Daily reported in a July 3, 2009 article entitled, "New Type of El Nino Could Mean More Hurricanes Make Landfall," on a Georgia Tech climatic study naming this year's weather pattern as El Nino Modoki. When translated from Japanese the name means "same but different," as this new type of El Nino may bring uncharacteristic behavior.

    While typical El Ninos are indicated by warming ocean waters in the Eastern Pacific, El Nino Modoki is the warming of ocean waters in the Central Pacific. Warmer water in the Central Pacific indicates greater potential for hurricanes. At this time, the exact cause for the change is not yet known and could possibly be a natural variation.

    The article further discusses climatic study findings in which Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, states, "Normally, El Nino results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall



    Read more at Suite101: El Nino Modoki a Climatic Hybrid for 2009-2010: Winter Weather Forecast Predicts Hurricanes, Rain, and Flooding El Nino Modoki a Climatic Hybrid for 2009-2010: Winter Weather Forecast Predicts Hurricanes, Rain, and Flooding
     

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