Economy is Great: Do Not Believe Leftist Lies

[rightwinger]

1. GDP is down to 2.1%.
2. Treasury yields have crashed, down over 40%.
3. The Fed just pissed off markets by DROPPING interest rates ONLY 25bps to mitigate weakness, when 50bps was hoped for.
4. There is not enough economic activity, even with low unemployment, to drive inflation.
5. It's appearing that the Keynesian spending by Trump (which Keynes said should NOT be done in periods of growth) gave us only a temporary sugar high.

Those are just facts. I'm sure this will annoy Trumpsters, especially since they're probably not told this stuff in their alternate universe.

The economy is not "great". It's pretty good, but the consensus is that more weakness is probably not far away. A good trade deal with China could provide a badly-needed injection, so here's hoping.

Okay, sorry, let's get back to the alternate universe now.
.

Just can't bring yourself to admit that the economy was been doing well under Trump...can ya', Mac! Pretty good but not great? More weakness is probably not far away? Maybe that's the case if we make the mistake of electing someone from the clown car full of candidates from the Democratic side who's policy proposals border on the insane!

And it did well under Obama didn’t it?

 

[Mac1958]

How much of this "great economy" is a debt bubble just waiting to pop?

I'd put consumer/business debt as the top danger right now, and I personally think that business debt is a much bigger danger than people realize.

Shadow banks have been spraying out business loans like water for the last few years -- essentially to anyone with a pulse, a la sub-prime mortgages -- and that could cause a domino effect pretty easily. The question is the size of the effect.
.

I don't worry about consumer debt too much.

I worry more about corporate debt.

I don't know how to analyze this sub-prime business debt, yet, so I don't yet have a grip on what kind of cascading effect we might be looking at. I'm looking around for good data.

Ray Dalio is paying a lot of attention to this, so I'm keeping an eye on him. He has his proprietary analysts, so I can't replicate him.
.

 

[Oldstyle]

Only a fool would start a Trade War in a strong economy

Shut up stupid, American workers are fed up with China ripping us off. You bunch of dumb asses on the left really don't get why you lost in 2016.

The trade war is stupid

All it does is see who can hurt the other guy the most. Nobody ends up the better for it

The Chinese aren't stupid. They do things that they feel will benefit them. Currency manipulation and theft of intellectual property have benefited them in the past so they continue to do both. Trump has put them on notice that behavior needs to stop by imposing tariffs on their goods. He does so at a time when the Chinese economy is not doing well and ours is rather strong...which is the perfect time to do so. Now it's a question of how much damage the Chinese are willing to take before they see it's in their best interest to play fair.

 

[Toro]

All forms of debt have been leveraged for many times their value by a banking system that seems intent on magnifying the damage caused by any sort of widespread default.

The banking system today is stronger than it has been at any time in the last 40 years.

The banking system isn't going to collapse.

 

[Oldstyle]

1. GDP is down to 2.1%.
2. Treasury yields have crashed, down over 40%.
3. The Fed just pissed off markets by DROPPING interest rates ONLY 25bps to mitigate weakness, when 50bps was hoped for.
4. There is not enough economic activity, even with low unemployment, to drive inflation.
5. It's appearing that the Keynesian spending by Trump (which Keynes said should NOT be done in periods of growth) gave us only a temporary sugar high.

Those are just facts. I'm sure this will annoy Trumpsters, especially since they're probably not told this stuff in their alternate universe.

The economy is not "great". It's pretty good, but the consensus is that more weakness is probably not far away. A good trade deal with China could provide a badly-needed injection, so here's hoping.

Okay, sorry, let's get back to the alternate universe now.
.

Just can't bring yourself to admit that the economy was been doing well under Trump...can ya', Mac! Pretty good but not great? More weakness is probably not far away? Maybe that's the case if we make the mistake of electing someone from the clown car full of candidates from the Democratic side who's policy proposals border on the insane!

And it did well under Obama didn’t it?

The American economy is remarkably resilient, Winger! It managed to weather even as incompetent a steward as Barack Obama.

 

[Manonthestreet]

GDP is down to 2.1%..

No shit Sherlock. Look at post number two. The rate is rated as "Ideal" by economists for the current circumstances.
You're so fucking stupid its unbelievable.

Holy crap, so now 2.1% is "Ideal", after we were promised twice that.

So tell me, expert:

• Why are Treasury yields near record lows?
• Why did market want a 50bps rate drop?
• Why was Trump begging the Fed for a rate drop?
• Why isn't economic activity driving inflation?

Go ahead, expert. Lay it all out for us. Get as specific as you would like. Blow us away.
..

The Fed lowered the rate because they expect a downturn.

OR they want to cause a downturn.....

 

[Toro]

I don't know how to analyze this sub-prime business debt, yet, so I don't yet have a grip on what kind of cascading effect we might be looking at. I'm looking around for good data.

Ray Dalio is paying a lot of attention to this, so I'm keeping an eye on him. He has his proprietary analysts, so I can't replicate him.
.

There's not really a "sub-prime business" debt market, unless you consider mezzanine or junior capital "sub-prime." That's not really an issue though.

Rather, the concern is that businesses have levered up to record levels, covenants have deteriorated badly, ratings have declined, the loan market has jammed into CLOs, and liquidity has disappeared because the Volcker Rule gutted the banks.

 

[Toro]

The American economy is remarkably resilient, Winger! It managed to weather even as incompetent a steward as Barack Obama.

Policies matter but they matter less than political people believe.

 

[Toro]

OR they want to cause a downturn.....

The Fed doesn't want to cause a downturn.

 

[Manonthestreet]

OR they want to cause a downturn.....

The Fed doesn't want to cause a downturn.

Did a fine job of immediately crashing the market

 

[Mac1958]

"sub-prime business"

That's my little term for it. Earlier this year I wrote a book that touched (a little bit, just one chapter) on how businesses can get funding. As part of my research I stumbled onto a shitload of these online lenders, and their tactics and offers were a REAL flashback to the insane mortgage offers of 2004-2007. Talk about deja vu. It just didn't feel good.

I'm trying to find some decent data sources on it. I may be overestimating this, but I'd sure like to know more about it.
.

 

[Mac1958]

OR they want to cause a downturn.....

The Fed doesn't want to cause a downturn.

Did a fine job of immediately crashing the market

That's because the market was pissed the decrease wasn't MORE.
.

 

[Toro]

Did a fine job of immediately crashing the market

The economy was doing well, so they started increasing rates. That's what is supposed to happen.

Central banks have created inflated asset prices, including stocks. At some point, that has to be unwound.

 

[rightwinger]

Only a fool would start a Trade War in a strong economy

Shut up stupid, American workers are fed up with China ripping us off. You bunch of dumb asses on the left really don't get why you lost in 2016.

The trade war is stupid

All it does is see who can hurt the other guy the most. Nobody ends up the better for it

The Chinese aren't stupid. They do things that they feel will benefit them. Currency manipulation and theft of intellectual property have benefited them in the past so they continue to do both. Trump has put them on notice that behavior needs to stop by imposing tariffs on their goods. He does so at a time when the Chinese economy is not doing well and ours is rather strong...which is the perfect time to do so. Now it's a question of how much damage the Chinese are willing to take before they see it's in their best interest to play fair.

It comes down to.....we hurt them more than they hurt us. Then we win

Better off keeping existing trade deals

 

[Manonthestreet]

OR they want to cause a downturn.....

The Fed doesn't want to cause a downturn.

Did a fine job of immediately crashing the market

That's because the market was pissed the decrease wasn't MORE.
.

And who controls the market....Bankers and Wallst….yeah lets do what they want....its always for our best

 

[Manonthestreet]

Did a fine job of immediately crashing the market

The economy was doing well, so they started increasing rates. That's what is supposed to happen.

Central banks have created inflated asset prices, including stocks. At some point, that has to be unwound.

Was cut that caused it....should have left it alone. No need for any action at all

 

[danielpalos]

ME: We all know why the Left is screaming "Nazi" and "Racist" every day, its because they cannot touch Trump on the economy. Greatest jobs numbers in 50 years for God's sake!! Here is a great article on Economic points to look at:

How Is the US Economy Doing?
Six Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated August 02, 2019
6 Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing

There are six facts that tell you how the economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In July 2019, they report that the economy is doing well. It has steady growth, low unemployment, and little inflation. That's called the Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold

1) 164,000 Jobs Added In July 2019 = Strong
In the Non-farm Payroll Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys how many workers businesses added to their payroll each month. It doesn't count farm workers because farming is seasonal. A healthy economy will create 150,000 jobs on average. Companies will only add workers when they have enough demand to keep them busy.
Manufacturing jobs are an especially important indicator. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the 12.75 million Americans who work in manufacturing earn an average $84,832 a year, including benefits. When manufacturers start laying them off, it means the economy will be heading into a recession. For example, manufacturers hired fewer workers starting in October 2006 when compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate is also reported. It's a lagging indicator and so isn't as useful a statistic. Companies usually wait until a recession is well underway before laying off workers. It also takes a while to reduce the unemployment rate, even after hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created.

Number 2 is coming up in my next post. Read them all: CLICK HERE

164,000 jobs is nothing to brag about

Trump called Obama’s economy a disaster when Obama had fewer than 200,000 jobs in a month

It was the slowest recovery ever.. democrats caused unemployment to get to 10%

There was a Recession at the time.

gotta luv, right wing special pleading to ensure they are always right.

 

[BluesLegend]

Only a fool would start a Trade War in a strong economy

Shut up stupid, American workers are fed up with China ripping us off. You bunch of dumb asses on the left really don't get why you lost in 2016.

The trade war is stupid

All it does is see who can hurt the other guy the most. Nobody ends up the better for it

By all means then tell us what your solution to the problem is. I predict you got jack shit.

 

[occupied]

All forms of debt have been leveraged for many times their value by a banking system that seems intent on magnifying the damage caused by any sort of widespread default.

The banking system today is stronger than it has been at any time in the last 40 years.

The banking system isn't going to collapse.

Of course not, they know that if they really fuck up their Uncle Sam will be there to bail them out while everyone else gets to eat it. I'll never have faith in the economy again after what happened in 2008. Am I wrong to be entirely cynical about the motivations and ability of the finance industry to manage the economy responsibly?

 

[Jitss617]

ME: We all know why the Left is screaming "Nazi" and "Racist" every day, its because they cannot touch Trump on the economy. Greatest jobs numbers in 50 years for God's sake!! Here is a great article on Economic points to look at:

How Is the US Economy Doing?
Six Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing
BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated August 02, 2019
6 Facts That Tell You How the Economy Is Really Doing

There are six facts that tell you how the economy is doing. Economists call them leading economic indicators because they measure the early influencers on growth. In July 2019, they report that the economy is doing well. It has steady growth, low unemployment, and little inflation. That's called the Goldilocks economy because it's neither too hot nor too cold

1) 164,000 Jobs Added In July 2019 = Strong
In the Non-farm Payroll Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys how many workers businesses added to their payroll each month. It doesn't count farm workers because farming is seasonal. A healthy economy will create 150,000 jobs on average. Companies will only add workers when they have enough demand to keep them busy.
Manufacturing jobs are an especially important indicator. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, the 12.75 million Americans who work in manufacturing earn an average $84,832 a year, including benefits. When manufacturers start laying them off, it means the economy will be heading into a recession. For example, manufacturers hired fewer workers starting in October 2006 when compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate is also reported. It's a lagging indicator and so isn't as useful a statistic. Companies usually wait until a recession is well underway before laying off workers. It also takes a while to reduce the unemployment rate, even after hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created.

Number 2 is coming up in my next post. Read them all: CLICK HERE

164,000 jobs is nothing to brag about

Trump called Obama’s economy a disaster when Obama had fewer than 200,000 jobs in a month

It was the slowest recovery ever.. democrats caused unemployment to get to 10%

There was a Recession at the time.

gotta luv, right wing special pleading to ensure they are always right.

Caused by democrats that spent all there time attacking g bush to win an election, and not creating opportunity zones for jobs