CDZ Economic Carnage Is Coming

[Thunk]

Feel free to disagree with me...but this is not a left or right thread...leave politics out of it please.

We have massive money printing going on (stimulus checks) which will cause inflation...primarily with food because that is primarily where the printed money is going.

We have massive shutdowns of business which has cause massive loss in tax revenue.

We had unsustainable pension plans that have been hanging on by their finger tips for years...the loss of tax revenue will certainly be enough to tip these over.

The job losses have caused millions to not be able to pay their rent or mortgage...landlords and mortgage companies CAN'T TAKE THAT HIT...they'll go bankrupt.

It is said that 4 out of 5 businesses that are closed right now will not re-open. That will hit the commercial mortgage sector. (not to mention the MBS's and the CDO's which is what started the 2008 financial crisis).

What we are about to see is going to be biblical in scope! And if you are not afraid, you are not paying attention.

 

[esalla]

Feel free to disagree with me...but this is not a left or right thread...leave politics out of it please.

We have massive money printing going on (stimulus checks) which will cause inflation...primarily with food because that is primarily where the printed money is going.

We have massive shutdowns of business which has cause massive loss in tax revenue.

We had unsustainable pension plans that have been hanging on by their finger tips for years...the loss of tax revenue will certainly be enough to tip these over.

The job losses have caused millions to not be able to pay their rent or mortgage...landlords and mortgage companies CAN'T TAKE THAT HIT...they'll go bankrupt.

It is said that 4 out of 5 businesses that are closed right now will not re-open. That will hit the commercial mortgage sector. (not to mention the MBS's and the CDO's which is what started the 2008 financial crisis).

What we are about to see is going to be biblical in scope! And if you are not afraid, you are not paying attention.

We have been taken over I'm not even sure by who.

 

[Thunk]

I've delayed posting this thread for weeks because I wanted to post how to protect yourself...but I'm not seeing a way to do that

 

[Damaged Eagle]

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

 

[Thunk]

Financially speaking...we are going to get SLAMMED from about 15 different directions.

 

[Thunk]

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

A loaf of bread for a days wage...or 3 barley loaves.

 

[esalla]

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

A loaf of bread for a days wage...or 3 barley loaves.

Nah if we are lucky we will get two bowls of wonton per day

 

[Thunk]

We have been taken over I'm not even sure by who.

Honestly...I suspect this is a binary Bio-weapon. We've only seen the first half of it. The next virus will combine with this virus & be MUCH worse!

If you look at the reaction of the gov't of china...and then the reaction from the USA gov't...it's the only thing that makes sense.

 

[JGalt]

The economic disaster isn't going to just hit us here, it's more than likely going to be global.

That means some kind of a war somewhere in 3...2...1...

 

[Coyote]

View attachment 328577

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

And to help one another...regardless of politics,

 

[Damaged Eagle]

The economic disaster isn't going to just hit us here, it's more than likely going to be global.

That means some kind of a war somewhere in 3...2...1...

That's in my prediction...

https://www.usmessageboard.com/threads/october-24th-2029-prediction.812621/

*****SMILE*****

 

[Thunk]

The economic disaster isn't going to just hit us here, it's more than likely going to be global.

That means some kind of a war somewhere in 3...2...1...

You are correct!

185 countries infected.

When china quarantined Wuhan...they wouldn't let them travel anywhere in china...but they let wuhan people fly OUT OF CHINA TO OTHER COUNTRIES!

That one fact is going to play a HUGE role in politics/war in the next weeks/months.

China has blood on its hands from 185 countries!

 

[Coyote]

The economic disaster isn't going to just hit us here, it's more than likely going to be global.

That means some kind of a war somewhere in 3...2...1...

View attachment 328586

That's in my prediction...

https://www.usmessageboard.com/threads/october-24th-2029-prediction.812621/

*****SMILE*****

All this is happening on top of another humanitarian disaster, the biggest number of displaced people ever recorded.

 

[Damaged Eagle]

View attachment 328577

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

And to help one another...regardless of politics,

After being kicked in the teeth by a non-profit recently over the charity I was providing them and wasn't appreciated you'll excuse me if I only help close family and friends. Anyone else can work or pay for the help they receive from me. Otherwise as I told my wife about some excess produce I had available recently... I'd rather feed it to the hogs.

*****SMILE*****

 

[Coyote]

View attachment 328577

There won't be anything like FDR's New Deal this time around. No money. People better be willing to work for a bowl of soup and what shelter is offered.

*****SMILE*****

And to help one another...regardless of politics,

View attachment 328587

After being kicked in the teeth by a non-profit recently over the charity I was provided them and wasn't appreciated you'll excuse me if I only help close family and friends. Anyone else can work or pay for the help they receive from me. Otherwise as I told my wife about some excess produce I had available recently... I'd rather feed it to the hogs.

*****SMILE*****

Understandable. I havent had such experiences and we have many good local groups I would help.

 

[Meister]

I'm more of an optimist than some on this thread. There is going to be (IMO) 2-3 quarters of hurt as the economy is gearing up again.
Most places in the US weren't hit has hard as the 4-5 states that got nailed. Those other states will get back to normal a lot sooner and
will lead the way for those other hard hit states. This event overall, is a short lived event in the scheme of things. Our economy was fairly
strong before the virus and had good numbers right up to when the virus hit, so there weren't a lot of other negatives affecting us.

 

[Toro]

First, we will not have consumer price inflation. Even with all the money printing, the forces of deflation - including the pandemic - are simply too powerful. CPI may be a problem in 10-20 years, but it isn't now.

Second, we are in a deep recession / depression. For a number of reasons, this will not be a repeat of the 1930s. But it will be the biggest economic decline since then.

Third, CDOs are a 2008 thing, not a 2020 thing. What you are referring to is CLOs. CLOs are a thing. They aren't as big of a thing as the CDOs of the GFC, but they will cause economic dislocation over the next few years.

Fourth, the actions of the Federal government and the Federal Reserve have prevented a repeat of the 1930s. But it is creating massive government debt. That debt will be monetized over the decades to come. Interest rates will stay low for a very long time.

Fifth, the pension problem was a problem before COVID. This makes it worse. Expect a ton of pressure for President Biden to bail out the states, which Democrats favor and Republicans - rightly - oppose.

Sixth, MMT will become a thing. Google it.

Seventh, there will be an economic boom in 2022/23. The economy will not fully heal until a vaccine is fully available, which will not happen until the back half of 2021. When that happens, the pent-up demand will cause a boom in consumer spending, leading to the re-election of President Klobachur after President Biden resigns due to Alzheimer's. The anti-vaxxers can do everyone a favor and let COVID off them.

Eighth, the US will onshore more of it's critical production, probably through the use of tariffs. This will officially deep-six the Friedman/Reagan/Thatcher era, which was on it's deathbed after the GFC. It will lead to lower GDP growth, but higher wages and less inequality as society reorders itself to no longer prioritize economic efficiency and the primacy of shareholders' interests.

Ninth, excess supply wipes out most of the fracking industry. Excess supply will not rebalance until 2022 at the earliest. Probably 2023. Oil production in this country grew from 8 million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day in five years. It will fall by 4 million barrels as wells shut in. Much of the oil industry capacity is lost. There could be revolutions in countries which require much higher oil prices to function. There will be a wave of bankruptcies in the oil patch that we haven't seen since the 1980s. However, the seeds of capacity destruction will sow the seeds of $80-$100 oil in the back half of the decade. ETFs include XLE, XOP and OIH. The first ETF is the safest, the latter two the riskiest.

Tenth, there has been no investment in copper mines globally for years. This is leading to a supply shortage, which will likely hit in the middle of the decade. This will happen regardless of the adoption of electronic vehicles. Oil is going to be around for a long time. But the adoption of EVs requires more copper. This will lead to a boom in copper prices, to as high as maybe $10 a pound. COPX is the ETF to play this. It's at $13 today. It was at $60 a few years ago. It will break $100.

Eleventh, natural gas is at $1.80 mBCF. The rise of EVs means more electricity generation. That will lead to an increase in nat gas demand. Expect natty to top $3 in the back half of the decade, if not higher. The destruction of the oil industry benefits nat gas because it is a byproduct of oil production. There is an ocean of gas under the earth's crust in this country, so it is unlikely to hit $17 as it did in the 00s. But it will be higher.

 

[airplanemechanic]

Yea that inflation with the price of gas is just killing us huh

 

[Damaged Eagle]

I'm more of an optimist than some on this thread. There is going to be (IMO) 2-3 quarters of hurt as the economy is gearing up again.
Most places in the US weren't hit has hard as the 4-5 states that got nailed. Those other states will get back to normal a lot sooner and
will lead the way for those other hard hit states. This event overall, is a short lived event in the scheme of things. Our economy was fairly
strong before the virus and had good numbers right up to when the virus hit, so there weren't a lot of other negatives affecting us.

Going to be a lot of small businesses that never open up again.

Especially if this type of lock down becomes common.

*****SMILE*****

 

[Meister]

I'm more of an optimist than some on this thread. There is going to be (IMO) 2-3 quarters of hurt as the economy is gearing up again.
Most places in the US weren't hit has hard as the 4-5 states that got nailed. Those other states will get back to normal a lot sooner and
will lead the way for those other hard hit states. This event overall, is a short lived event in the scheme of things. Our economy was fairly
strong before the virus and had good numbers right up to when the virus hit, so there weren't a lot of other negatives affecting us.

View attachment 328591

Going to be a lot of small businesses that never open up again.

Especially if this type of lock down becomes common.

*****SMILE*****

Several states are starting to open up businesses as I'm typing.