Does the Democratic Party have an electoral block in 2016?

[AceRothstein]

OH, FL, NC, VA will be the battleground states.

True, that seems to be the case. I thought it was an interesting article with some "uncomfortable" truths that I am sure the GOP is running away from. If you consider the fact that the Dems start with 246 electoral votes in 2016 with the fact that the changing demographics are making it harder and harder for the GOP to gerrymander Congressional districts, the future success of the GOP is very much in doubt.

The midterms of 2014 was a battle that the GOP won, due mainly to Ebola, Fear of ISIS, and misinformation about the ACA. But battles are won, when all the signs point to a war that the GOP is losing.

Most people recognize this. However, I think PA-20, MI-16 and WI-10 are more in play (although left leaning) then you want to give credit for?

They could be in play but here's the last time those states voted for the Republican in the Presidential Election.

Pennsylvania - 1988
Michigan - 1988
Wisconsin - 1984

 

[HenryBHough]

They definitely have a block.

Somehow the hive mind has been blocked from coming up with even one viable candidate. Mayhap the brain damage is not limited to one cranky old lady.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

If you look at history, the next president will be a democratic one...

I think you mean Democrat.... not Democratic.

Geeze the dumb runs deep in this one.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

Boy... these lefties are in meltdown mode... already trying to predict an election 2 years away. But, given the shellacking they took... I guess it's understandable.

 

[rightwinger]

If you look at history, the next president will be a democratic one...

I think you mean Democrat.... not Democratic.

Geeze the dumb runs deep in this one.

Ummmm...not really

 

[AceRothstein]

Boy... these lefties are in meltdown mode... already trying to predict an election 2 years away. But, given the shellacking they took... I guess it's understandable.

Who is melting down? We are simply having a discussion.

 

[Edgetho]

Boy... these lefties are in meltdown mode... already trying to predict an election 2 years away. But, given the shellacking they took... I guess it's understandable.

2016 is ours to lose. It's over for dims. All we gotta do is NOT nominate an eggplant.

It's over. Hitlery couldn't win a race for dogcatcher right now and their only other alternatives is Elizabeth the commie Warren. Who would get absolutely TROUNCED in a General Election.

It's over before it even starts

 

[Meathead]

Changing demographics and the various wars the Republicans were raging fell flat. Blacks are not going to turn out heavily for an aging white woman, although the Cherokee vote may for Warren.

 

[JimH52]

If you look at history, the next president will be a democratic one...

I think you mean Democrat.... not Democratic.

Geeze the dumb runs deep in this one.

Ummmm...not really

I think the RWers find the facts a very "inconvenient truth", but they will never admit it. If you read the article, Rubio was asked if he could reach 270 EV and he could not answer. The math and changing demographics are creeping up on an old, white, dogmatic party. There may be time for the GOP to change, to enlarge their tent of acceptance, but time is growing very short.

 

[rightwinger]

Last 6 Presidential elections

92 Dems 370 Repubs 168
96 Dems 379 Repubs 159
00 Dems 266 Repubs 271
04 Dems 251 Repubs 286
08 Dems 365 Repubs 173
08 Dems 332 Repubs 206


Under the best of conditions, the Repubs barely reach 270 EVs while the Dems run up well into the 300+ range

This puts the Republicans at a distinct disadvantage in winning the Whitehouse

What this shows is that as the political pendulum swings back and forth between Democrats and Republicans that the Democrats win by wide margins and the Republicans barely reach 270

Won't be long given current demographics, that the Republican pendulum doesn't even reach 270

 

[Vigilante]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

 

[AceRothstein]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

 

[Vigilante]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

have a electoral map from back then, showing that?

 

[AceRothstein]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

have a electoral map from back then, showing that?

Yes, they are all over the internet. The '84 election was so long ago it shows us nothing about current voting trends.

 

[Vigilante]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

have a electoral map from back then, showing that?

Yes, they are all over the internet. The '84 election was so long ago it shows us nothing about current voting trends.

OK, then was Reagan expected to win that landslide?

 

[AceRothstein]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

have a electoral map from back then, showing that?

Yes, they are all over the internet. The '84 election was so long ago it shows us nothing about current voting trends.

OK, then was Reagan expected to win that landslide?

Yes, the final poll in 1984 matched the election result.

 

[Vigilante]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

have a electoral map from back then, showing that?

Yes, they are all over the internet. The '84 election was so long ago it shows us nothing about current voting trends.

OK, then was Reagan expected to win that landslide?

Yes, the final poll in 1984 matched the election result.

Now what was it 2-3 months before?

 

[rightwinger]

How did that electoral map look like when Reagan won 49 states?

Half of those Reagan voters are dead

Looks like they now vote Democratic

 

[AceRothstein]

It looked quite different...

...30 years ago.

have a electoral map from back then, showing that?

Yes, they are all over the internet. The '84 election was so long ago it shows us nothing about current voting trends.

OK, then was Reagan expected to win that landslide?

Yes, the final poll in 1984 matched the election result.

Now what was it 2-3 months before?

Reagan winning by a large margin.

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends 1936-2004

 

[Meathead]

Half of those Reagan voters are dead

Looks like they now vote Democratic

Dead people vote Democrat. We already knew that, thus voter id laws. It is big of you to admit it.