Does anyone have a plan for long term employment recovery?

[AmazonTania]

First consider FDR's rebuilding and support of America during the great depression, and then the massive Keynesian spending for war that eventually brought America back from the brink. Now consider midcan's energy proposal which handles jobs too. If history says anything, it says austerity is a failure, and today we can look to Europe as an example of that failure.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/energy/56561-plowing-not-drilling.html

http://www.usmessageboard.com/economy/220510-the-greatest-job-creator-of-all-time.html

Then explain the Depression of 1920...

Also, worth noting that Lithuania used austerity and they've recovered faster than the rest of their EU counterparts.

The problem with Austerity, is you actually have to do it right. There are very few nations in the EU is using classic US 1920 austerity measures. Then again, anything compared to the US is austerity.

 

[Dugdale_Jukes]

Germany and Japan do not have tariff structures like the US.

Bzzzt.

 

[AmazonTania]

Germany and Japan do not have tariff structures like the US.

Bzzzt.

You are very much mistaken. The Japanese were incentivised to lower trade restrictions due to the economic problems of the Lost Decade. Not to mention Japan has their own version of NAFTA called Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement, or TPSEP.

Also, according to the World Bank, Germany's Tariff Rate is 1.5 while the United States has a Tariff Rate of 2.8.

Tariff rate, applied, simple mean, all products (%) | Data | Table

If anything, the United States has become more protectionist under Obama. He instituted Tariffs on Chinese-made tires, solar panels and high-tech batteries made in other countries.

 

[oldfart]

What will be considered acceptable levels of employment in the future? Will people be glad just to have 30 hour a week jobs and whatever gov't supplements they can qualify for?

In today's parlance I am a "New Keynesian" which means that I believe the old Hicksian macroeconomic model which has been the mainstay of graduate school macroeconomics for the past 70 years, along with more recent refinements in monetary policy and international trade theory. This school of thought generally advocates a stimulus package of two trillion dollars or so over a three year period with emphasis on infrastructure, research, and education; a continuation of present monetary policy, a longer term approach to the debt, tax reform, meaningful financial regulation, and formation of an industrial, trade, labor, and environmental policy that support each other.

The workweek should be average 40--44 hours per week in most job categories. Real wages should reverse their downward trend. Inflation should be targeted at 2--3% per year, and GDP should grow at 4.5--6% in the near term and long range growth should be targeted for 3.5--4.5%. Major measures should be devoted to reducing income and wealth inequality, as the present levels are inimical to economic growth, political & social stability, and democratic government.

Do you truly expect a robust sustainable economy with significant numbers of good paying jobs which are safe from the threat of moving out of the country?

Yes. Bad policy created this depression and good policy can reverse it. If we chose further bad policies such as austerity we can count on becoming a third-rate economic power with a declining standard of living. This is not inevitable, it is the forseeable results of policies we have chosen. Frankly the wealthiest 0.1% of our society actually benefit from this scenario and will do everything in their power to bring it about. The rest of society has the alternatives of letting this happen or demanding a different course. As the old union song goes, "Which side are you on?"

FOOTNOTE: I understand that it is difficult for people to exercise good judgment when they are financially stressed and fearful. In American history this has stopped us in some cases, but never indefinitely. I am ashamed for my profession, for it is obvious that many have sold out for money, prestige, and position. But any economist today who holds to the austerian viewpoint is obviously a fool or a knave. They were trained to know better. The general public can claim ignorance and confusion in the face of opposing "experts" but any trained economist can't take that cope out. They know better.

 

[oldfart]

Care to share?

Sure. The plan involves consuming some bitter tasting medicine in stopping Federal Stimulus, Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing measures involving FOMC operations, and a quick steady increase in the Fed Funds rate.

These are all inherently internal problems. Another thing we can do is incentivize businesses to actually create jobs. This would include lowering taxes, ridding specific sectors of business impeding regulations, eliminating red tap, decreasing the cost of labor.

In other words you are advocating the austerian prescription which has caused social disintegration, the rise of fascist parties, 12%+ European unemployment (over 27% in nations such as Spain) and runs a fair chance of destroying European civilization. You add to that policies to kill more workers and common citizens and to reduce labor to peonage. Shame on you!

 

[hortysir]

Absolutely.

1. Increase penalties for white collar crime; base them on dollar value in increments of $50,000, make prison mandatory and strip the corporate veil so personal assets can be seized.

2. Raise margin requirements on commodities speculation to 10% for smaller volumes, 20% for large volumes. Oil prices will fall 25% in six weeks, gas prices will fall more than that, as will copper and so-called "rare metals".

3. Notify the WTO that effective immediately the US is instituting 100% reciprocity in tariff rates for similar materials.

4. Notify the WTO that effective immediately the US is taxing ALL imports at a rate to account for cost differentials between US mfgs and foreign mfgs not meeting similar environmental protections standards.

5. Effective immediately, eliminate tax transfers and carryforwards as well, then reduce corporate taxes to 10%.

6. Impose felony charges on individuals and businesses employing illegal aliens.

------------------------

Six months after that the US economy will be on the way to full employment.

Potential downside: inflation will try to return. That can be managed by threatening to open the FED's books if it isn't.

Sounds like you blame Wall St more than Capital Hill

 

[AmazonTania]

In other words you are advocating the austerian prescription which has caused social disintegration, the rise of fascist parties, 12%+ European unemployment (over 27% in nations such as Spain) and runs a fair chance of destroying European civilization. You add to that policies to kill more workers and common citizens and to reduce labor to peonage. Shame on you!

No, I advocate long term REAL prosperity. You are a advocating a cheap phony stimulus inducing high.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

1. Repeal Obamacare are replace it with Whole Foods recommendation

2. Privatize social security

3. Voucher medicare

4. Close department of education, energy, hud

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

 

[t_polkow]

A lot of the jobs that people with little education or skills that used to pay decent wages have gone to places like China.

well that writes off the red states of jesusland!

 

[oldfart]

No, I advocate long term REAL prosperity. You are a advocating a cheap phony stimulus inducing high.

The kind of prosperity your policies have created in Ireland. the Baltic states, and all of southern Europe? On top of a triple dip recession, Europe has a 12.1% overall unemployment rate. Prosperity where? When?

You are a shill for failed policies that have led to an enormous economic catastrophe and human misery of epic proportions. You seem to not be fazed by any of the carnage you have created, which makes you both intellectually and morally bankrupt.

 

[MikeK]

Restore the 91% progressive tax rate and use the revenue to commence repair and improvement of our infrastructure.

It will create millions of good-paying jobs and many new industries. It won't impoverish the super rich but will merely make them a little less rich.

FDR did it and it created the middle classs.

 

[editec]

?

No, they don't.

In fact they are mostly ignoring the fact that much of the employment problem this nation faces is MANMADE and they (meaning Congress and our POTUSs over the last 50 years) CREATED this problem in the first place.

If you press them for a solution (as I personally have to members of Congress) the fall back on the CANARD that EDUCATION will solve this problem.

It cannot possible solve the problem because a lack of education has never been the problem.

FREE TRADE and TECHOLOGY are making US workers redundant.

 

[Underhill]

Absolutely.

1. Increase penalties for white collar crime; base them on dollar value in increments of $50,000, make prison mandatory and strip the corporate veil so personal assets can be seized.

2. Raise margin requirements on commodities speculation to 10% for smaller volumes, 20% for large volumes. Oil prices will fall 25% in six weeks, gas prices will fall more than that, as will copper and so-called "rare metals".

3. Notify the WTO that effective immediately the US is instituting 100% reciprocity in tariff rates for similar materials.

4. Notify the WTO that effective immediately the US is taxing ALL imports at a rate to account for cost differentials between US mfgs and foreign mfgs not meeting similar environmental protections standards.

5. Effective immediately, eliminate tax transfers and carryforwards as well, then reduce corporate taxes to 10%.

6. Impose felony charges on individuals and businesses employing illegal aliens.

------------------------

Six months after that the US economy will be on the way to full employment.

Potential downside: inflation will try to return. That can be managed by threatening to open the FED's books if it isn't.

I agree with the medicine. But the outcome would be a bit harsher than that.

We could see a massive trade war with China. And this would be tough considering we no longer have the ability to manufacture much of the stuff we import.

But in the long run, 10 years rather than 6 months, we would be better off. This is why it will never happen. Congress and the President, virtually all of them past and present, only think in terms of the next election.

 

[Kondor3]

A plan for long-term employment recovery?

Make the 12 million Illegal Aliens self-deport?

That ought to crack things wide open.

 

[hortysir]

Restore the 91% progressive tax rate and use the revenue to commence repair and improvement of our infrastructure.

It will create millions of good-paying jobs and many new industries. It won't impoverish the super rich but will merely make them a little less rich.

FDR did it and it created the middle classs.

 

[Wyatt earp]

A lot of the jobs that people with little education or skills that used to pay decent wages have gone to places like China.

We need way more technical high schools I think, what they are mostly geared to do is send kids to a four year college, their is so many skilled manufacturing jobs that go unfilled in a high unemployment area.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Restore the 91% progressive tax rate and use the revenue to commence repair and improvement of our infrastructure.

It will create millions of good-paying jobs and many new industries. It won't impoverish the super rich but will merely make them a little less rich.

FDR did it and it created the middle classs.

He had alot of help with the aftermath of World war2, and how easy it was to manufacture goods and sell them in the 50~70's. But I agree about the infrastructure. We really need to improve the 100 year old water systems and birdges that will create alot of jobs. Also the power grids were not designed to handle a 100 million electric cars plugged in at night if we still want to go to electric cars.

 

[oldfart]

Also, worth noting that Lithuania used austerity and they've recovered faster than the rest of their EU counterparts.

Lithuania? You have to be kidding. The unemployment rate is still at 13.2% and the growth rate has fallen from 9.8% in 2007 (Lithuania being the fastest growing EU candidate for the period 1996--2007) to 1.4% in 2010, 5.9% in 2011, and 3.5% for 2012 (from CIA Factbook for Lithuania). I doubt if austerity had anything to do with this. And how about Lithuania raising the minimum wage in 2012 by 25%? Is that austerity?

 

[AmazonTania]

Lithuania? You have to be kidding. The unemployment rate is still at 13.2% and the growth rate has fallen from 9.8% in 2007 (Lithuania being the fastest growing EU candidate for the period 1996--2007) to 1.4% in 2010, 5.9% in 2011, and 3.5% for 2012 (from CIA Factbook for Lithuania). I doubt if austerity had anything to do with this.

The unemployment rose as high as 18.4% in 2010. It's now at 13.2% and dropping. Their situation with unemployment is unique, as people were leaving the labor force due to migrating to other EU nations. The decrease in the unemployment rate is merely due to people migrating back because the economy is improving.

As far as economic growth, I'll show you some interesting data. I'll even make it clear enough for you to understand.

During the time of economic downturn, Lithuania budget cuts:

During the period of harsh austerity, GDP went on a downward spiral to double digits. Afterwards, it's sustained a period of long lasting prosperity and achieved a growth rate much faster than that of the United States.

Also industrial production started to improve well into the GDP contraction.

All and all, they've tried austerity. Real classic austerity and they're on a better path than the United States is currently. Which is ironic, the only way the United States can achieve any sort of property through stimulus is if the Government distorts and manipulates Government Data the entire way.

There are plenty of ways to deal with a massive bust and fiscal problems. None of them are painless, but some makes more sense than others.

And how about Lithuania raising the minimum wage in 2012 by 25%? Is that austerity?

Austerity has nothing to do with minimum wage increases. You should know this...

 

[AmazonTania]

Restore the 91% progressive tax rate

You are aware less than 400 people filed income taxes in that bracket, corret?

and use the revenue to commence repair and improvement of our infrastructure.

It will create millions of good-paying jobs and many new industries. It won't impoverish the super rich but will merely make them a little less rich.

Yep. There are tons of problems with the our roads and bridges. All of them. It is screwing up American productivity, although Americans are still the most productive in the world.

FDR did it and it created the middle classs.

I didn't know he was President in 1955... Hm, learn something new everyday.