Do You Believe The Inflation Rates The Gov't Is Reporting?

[JWBooth]

Lost IRS emails...
Global warming...
You can keep your doctor...
Inflation is low...

If the government's lips are moving it is probably a lie.

No doubt about it

 

[saveliberty]

Here's an idea:

Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...

Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.

 

[pinqy]

[ According to the BLS we can all breathe easy on that front because their "Health Insurance Index" increased a mere 4.3% (total) in the four years between 2008 and 2012. Interestingly, over the same time, the Kaiser Survey of Employer Sponsored Health Insurance showed that the cost of family health insurance rose 24.2% (5.5 times faster).

Kaiser reflects my experiences. Here's an idea, since I'm a consumer make the rate reflect what I buy.

Well, sure. as I showed, the health insurance index does not and is not meant to measure the full change in insurance premiums. But that's not deception or manipulation, just the realities of collection. It measures the non-health care part only

It sure is deception and manipulation. I can't just decide to ignore a bill or skip buying food and gas for two months. Can any of us delete the health care part of our costs? Why can the government?

They don't delete it.

 

[eagle1462010]

I'm sorry if the question confused some of the voters..........It was not intended........

 

[pinqy]

Here's an idea:

Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...

Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.

Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.

 

[saveliberty]

Here's an idea:

Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...

Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.

Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.

That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.

 

[eagle1462010]

All I know is that everything seems to cost more and they are reducing the sizes for the same price at best..............The inflation rate needs to be done on very common items that everyone buys or most buy to determine the inflation rate.

I believe the inflation rate is higher and agree with Schiff.........

He was right about the crash as the main stream big dogs laughed at him...........He was right and they were wrong.

 

[FA_Q2]

Here's an idea:

Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...

Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.

Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.

What I don't really understand is the fact that it does not match anything close to reality for almost anyone I speak to in general. If this is the way it is collected (and I don't really doubt it as this is the method the government says they use) then why does the average person constantly say how prices has increased so dramatically but inflation remains low. Essentially, reality and the governments claims are NOT matching up. The only viable reason for this that I can think of is the methodology is flawed at its core.

I noticed that I used to be able to go to the grocery store and get away with a bill under 150 and fill my fridge up entirely. Now, not so much. I barely get anything and I am well over 200 bucks. Its not my imagination and many people state the same thing constantly. Look at the price of milk and meat - 2 mainstays in any kitchen. They have SKYROCKETED.

The government can drone on until it falls over about a flat or low inflation rate and I could care less about the 'numbers' at the end of the day if my first hand experience is completely different. I am not going to discount reality because the government says something else. Something is flawed SOMEWHERE or the story would not be so damn universal about the rising cost of almost everything.

I wonder if the main problem though is that the information is not weighted to what is important - food. That is one of the main things that eats into a budget and if the price of food increases rather dramatically as it has done it completely overshadows any other expense that a family is generating.

 

[FA_Q2]

That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.

From what I gather that is actually incorrect. certainly a government employee has to actually tabulate it - any other way is literally impossible BUT they are taking that data from specific families who have actually gathered the data. IOW, the public gathers the all the data on the purchases and the government employee simply takes it from those families and puts it into a database.

I highly doubt that gathering the data is the main issue here - the government is actually very good at gathering data. I believe that the issue is how that data is handled afterword. Similar to the unemployment rate which is rather skewed to make things look a little brighter.

 

[saveliberty]

I believe that the BLS is becoming like the Congressional Budget Office. They simply take the data government tells them to and renders some type of analysis. Problem is, garbage in, garbage out.

 

[pinqy]

Here's an idea:

Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...

Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.

Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.

That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.

The items and weights come from the Consumer Expenditure survey...the actual price collection comes from the economic assistants hitting the stores. There's no way you could get proper collection from a survey of consumers...people don't buy exactly the same things in the same proportions. It couldn't be rigorous enough.

 

[eagle1462010]

Here's an idea:

Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...

Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.

Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.

That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.

The items and weights come from the Consumer Expenditure survey...the actual price collection comes from the economic assistants hitting the stores. There's no way you could get proper collection from a survey of consumers...people don't buy exactly the same things in the same proportions. It couldn't be rigorous enough.

Everybody I know say the same thing........Money doesn't go anywhere anymore...........I see it at the stores and so do they.............

It's rigged to look lower.......

 

[pinqy]

That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.

From what I gather that is actually incorrect. certainly a government employee has to actually tabulate it - any other way is literally impossible BUT they are taking that data from specific families who have actually gathered the data.

No...the data collection is done by government employees. they have a tablet with their list of items..down to the tiniest detail: "Men's shirt, button down collar, french cuffs, 95% cotton, 5% polyester" It's very particular. Any price change more than a certain threshold, or any substitution based on change in quality or lack of availability, and an economist makes the determination on whether there's an error in the collection and whether a substitution needs quality adjustment etc.

 

[saveliberty]

That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.

From what I gather that is actually incorrect. certainly a government employee has to actually tabulate it - any other way is literally impossible BUT they are taking that data from specific families who have actually gathered the data. IOW, the public gathers the all the data on the purchases and the government employee simply takes it from those families and puts it into a database.

I highly doubt that gathering the data is the main issue here - the government is actually very good at gathering data. I believe that the issue is how that data is handled afterword. Similar to the unemployment rate which is rather skewed to make things look a little brighter.

In many cases, the most slowly rising prices are in the categories of consumer durable goods and apparel. In fact, the CPI for durables, which include such items as televisions and computers, fell slightly over the year ending March 2008, as did the index for apparel. Of course, by their nature, those items are purchased less frequently than food and energy items. For a family that had no immediate plans to purchase a new television or computer in March 2008, the price declines of those products over the previous 12 months probably would be less important than the 26.0-percent increase in the price of gasoline, the 48.4-percent rise in the price of fuel oil, the 14.7-percent price increase for bread, and the 13.3-percent price rise for milk. Similarly, although most families purchase apparel during any given year, in many weeks their purchases will be concentrated in food and fuel, and in those weeks they probably experienced price increases higher than the increases reported for the all-items CPI. Nevertheless, the BLS cannot exclude items from the CPI simply because they are purchased infrequently.

The BLS continuously reviews and enhances the data and methods used in generating the CPI. For the purposes of this article, three methodological changes have been especially significant. The first was a fundamental change in the measurement of the cost of shelter for homeowners.
A second major change took effect in January 1999, when the BLS adopted a geometric mean formula in the calculation of most CPI basic indexes. The purpose was to reflect the demonstrated ability of consumers to shift away from products whose prices had increased relative to the prices of other products in the same basic CPI component.
The third change took place over a period of years beginning in 1998, as the CPI program expanded the use of hedonic regression models for quality adjustment, previously confined to housing and apparel, to a number of additional series, such as computers, televisions, and refrigerators. Each of these three methodological changes continues to generate criticism from outside the BLS.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf

 

[KissMy]

There was massive inflation during the Bush years in all the basics everyone needs to pay to live a poverty life. Land, water, property tax, housing, food, sewer, electric, gas, trash, transportation, communications, healthcare, etc.

Under Bush Oil went up 800% from $18 to $147 - Under Obama it's down to $77
Under Bush Gold went up 550% from $350 to $1,920 - Under Obama it's down to $1,160
Under Bush US Dollar Index fell from $122 to $77 - Under Obama it's up to $87
Under Bush Corn went up 450% from $1.78 to $8.00 - Under Obama it's down to $3.20
Under Bush Soybeans went up 450% from $4.00 to $17.75 - Under Obama it's down to $9.20
Under Bush Wheat went up 475% from $2.50 to $11.85 - Under Obama it's down to $5
Under Bush Water Utility Bill went up 400% - Under Obama it's down 20%
Under Bush Sewer Utility Bill went up 400% - Under Obama it's up 10%
Under Bush Trash Pick-up Bill went up 400% - Under Obama it's down 30%
Under Bush Gas Utility Bill went up 400% - Under Obama it's down 50%
Under Bush Electric Utility Bill went up 200% - Under Obama it's down 20%
Under Bush Houses went up 200% from $110K to $220K - Under Obama they're down 35%
Under Bush Property Taxes went up 300% - Under Obama it's down 20%
Under Bush Gasoline went up 400% from $1.05 to $4.10 - Under Obama it's down to $2.95
Under Bush Health Insurance went up 70% - Under Obama it's up 12%
Under Bush Homeowners Insurance went up 200% - Under Obama it's flat
Under Bush Hamburger went up 400% from $0.79 to $2.99 - Under Obama it's up to $3.99
Under Bush Copper went up 660% from $0.60 to $4.50 - Under Obama it's down to $2.90
Under Bush Cotton went up 660% from $30 to $200 - Under Obama it's down to $61
Under Bush Sugar went up 400% from $5 to $19 - Under Obama it's down to $15

The PPI Commodity index is a better read of inflation than the manipulated CPI

 

[HenryBHough]

So why is my weekly food bill 20% higher than when The New Messiah was anointed?

 

[pinqy]

The PPI Commodity index is a better read in inflation than the manipulated CPI

The PPI covers the prices paid by Producers...not consumers...and doesn't include taxes (which the CPI does)
But as for "manipulation" both indexes use the same formula, although the CPI does use a geo-means index for base level items. The CPI basket is updated every 2 years, PPI every 5. It's just really odd to hear someone say the CPI is manipulated but the PPI is not and really weird to hear someone try to say the PPI is better when looking at things from a consumer perspective.

I really think you're misunderstanding the ideas of substitution...since the PPI does the same things with the exception of geo-means.

 

[KissMy]

So why is my weekly food bill 20% higher than when The New Messiah was anointed?

Immigration was crushed by Obama, so produce pickers, processors & butchers are getting a lot more money now days. Plus grocery store profits are up.

 

[pinqy]

So why is my weekly food bill 20% higher than when The New Messiah was anointed?

Well, since Obama was elected in November 2008, food at home has gone up about 10% on average....but it is up 20% since summer of 2007. So either you're thinking a year or two earlier, or the particular foods you buy have gone up more than average (a lot of beef?), or you particular area has had higher prices, or you're just buying different things altogether.


Probably a combination of all of the above.

 

[KissMy]

The PPI Commodity index is a better read in inflation than the manipulated CPI

The PPI covers the prices paid by Producers...not consumers...and doesn't include taxes (which the CPI does)
But as for "manipulation" both indexes use the same formula, although the CPI does use a geo-means index for base level items. The CPI basket is updated every 2 years, PPI every 5. It's just really odd to hear someone say the CPI is manipulated but the PPI is not and really weird to hear someone try to say the PPI is better when looking at things from a consumer perspective.

I really think you're misunderstanding the ideas of substitution...since the PPI does the same things with the exception of geo-means.

I am a farmer & I always deal with producer prices & consumer prices. Prices were absolutely unhinged all during the Bush years but the CPI showed it's average 2.2%. The PPI actually reflects the price changes although not as drastic as prices were in reality. With food it takes 1 to 4 years for consumer prices to reflect producer prices. That is why people don't see the real inflation at the grocery store until the people who caused the price swing left office. Chicken prices will reflect inflation in a year but cattle will take 4 years.

Harvest time (usually October) will reflect a years worth of inflation in some foods in that month. California had a drought over the past year that hurt all their fresh fruit & vegetables. Yet fresh California table grapes were lower this year than previous years. This is because deflation was greater than the the reduction in their table grape harvest.