JWBooth
Diamond Member
No doubt about itLost IRS emails...
Global warming...
You can keep your doctor...
Inflation is low...
If the government's lips are moving it is probably a lie.
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No doubt about itLost IRS emails...
Global warming...
You can keep your doctor...
Inflation is low...
If the government's lips are moving it is probably a lie.
They don't delete it.Well, sure. as I showed, the health insurance index does not and is not meant to measure the full change in insurance premiums. But that's not deception or manipulation, just the realities of collection. It measures the non-health care part only[ According to the BLS we can all breathe easy on that front because their "Health Insurance Index" increased a mere 4.3% (total) in the four years between 2008 and 2012. Interestingly, over the same time, the Kaiser Survey of Employer Sponsored Health Insurance showed that the cost of family health insurance rose 24.2% (5.5 times faster).
Kaiser reflects my experiences. Here's an idea, since I'm a consumer make the rate reflect what I buy.
It sure is deception and manipulation. I can't just decide to ignore a bill or skip buying food and gas for two months. Can any of us delete the health care part of our costs? Why can the government?
Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.Here's an idea:
Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...
Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.
Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.Here's an idea:
Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...
Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.
The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.
What I don't really understand is the fact that it does not match anything close to reality for almost anyone I speak to in general. If this is the way it is collected (and I don't really doubt it as this is the method the government says they use) then why does the average person constantly say how prices has increased so dramatically but inflation remains low. Essentially, reality and the governments claims are NOT matching up. The only viable reason for this that I can think of is the methodology is flawed at its core.Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.Here's an idea:
Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...
Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.
The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.
From what I gather that is actually incorrect. certainly a government employee has to actually tabulate it - any other way is literally impossible BUT they are taking that data from specific families who have actually gathered the data. IOW, the public gathers the all the data on the purchases and the government employee simply takes it from those families and puts it into a database.That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.
The items and weights come from the Consumer Expenditure survey...the actual price collection comes from the economic assistants hitting the stores. There's no way you could get proper collection from a survey of consumers...people don't buy exactly the same things in the same proportions. It couldn't be rigorous enough.Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.Here's an idea:
Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...
Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.
The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.
That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.
The items and weights come from the Consumer Expenditure survey...the actual price collection comes from the economic assistants hitting the stores. There's no way you could get proper collection from a survey of consumers...people don't buy exactly the same things in the same proportions. It couldn't be rigorous enough.Ummm that's what is already done. The Consumer Expenditure Survey, run by Census, has people report what they buy. two versions: one is quarterly and the other biweekly. Then Census runs a Telephone Point of Purchase Survey to find out where people shop. So the weights and the stores are determined and then the BLS employees go to the stores to find out the price changes.Here's an idea:
Instead of using government employees to tell us what we buy and how we determine what we purchase...
Take a Census cross section and have those people report what they actually bought each month and their costs.
The Consumer Expenditure Survey has a lot of problems and is being overhauled. The main problem is respondent burden. Try writing down every thing everyone in your family bought for two weeks. The first week usually goes well, but the second week becomes really unreliable as people get tired and can't keep it up.
That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.
No...the data collection is done by government employees. they have a tablet with their list of items..down to the tiniest detail: "Men's shirt, button down collar, french cuffs, 95% cotton, 5% polyester" It's very particular. Any price change more than a certain threshold, or any substitution based on change in quality or lack of availability, and an economist makes the determination on whether there's an error in the collection and whether a substitution needs quality adjustment etc.From what I gather that is actually incorrect. certainly a government employee has to actually tabulate it - any other way is literally impossible BUT they are taking that data from specific families who have actually gathered the data.That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.
From what I gather that is actually incorrect. certainly a government employee has to actually tabulate it - any other way is literally impossible BUT they are taking that data from specific families who have actually gathered the data. IOW, the public gathers the all the data on the purchases and the government employee simply takes it from those families and puts it into a database.That is not the system the BLS discusses. It is government employees gathering actual purchases, not the public.
I highly doubt that gathering the data is the main issue here - the government is actually very good at gathering data. I believe that the issue is how that data is handled afterword. Similar to the unemployment rate which is rather skewed to make things look a little brighter.
The PPI covers the prices paid by Producers...not consumers...and doesn't include taxes (which the CPI does)The PPI Commodity index is a better read in inflation than the manipulated CPI
So why is my weekly food bill 20% higher than when The New Messiah was anointed?
Well, since Obama was elected in November 2008, food at home has gone up about 10% on average....but it is up 20% since summer of 2007. So either you're thinking a year or two earlier, or the particular foods you buy have gone up more than average (a lot of beef?), or you particular area has had higher prices, or you're just buying different things altogether.So why is my weekly food bill 20% higher than when The New Messiah was anointed?
The PPI covers the prices paid by Producers...not consumers...and doesn't include taxes (which the CPI does)The PPI Commodity index is a better read in inflation than the manipulated CPI
But as for "manipulation" both indexes use the same formula, although the CPI does use a geo-means index for base level items. The CPI basket is updated every 2 years, PPI every 5. It's just really odd to hear someone say the CPI is manipulated but the PPI is not and really weird to hear someone try to say the PPI is better when looking at things from a consumer perspective.
I really think you're misunderstanding the ideas of substitution...since the PPI does the same things with the exception of geo-means.