Current presidential polling in Ohio

[Shrimpbox]

Stat here is a question for you from another thread. How did Harry Reid pull off a victory when the polling was dead even or one or two points in favor of Angle in Nevada, at least from a pollsters standpoint?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Stat ,pride goeth before the fall. Doesn't Cheney have a gay daughter, yeah knocks that one down.

What seems to be missing is that her polling is in a vacuum. What is the polling if you ask the question, Hilary is a big supporter of obamacare, would that effect your support of her candidacy? Etc.

There is so much that can happen between now and then that it is foolish to transpose today on nov. 2016. Are repubs behind on star power and leadership? Yep. But it is a problem that is fixable. On the other hand, Hilary might be peaking way too soon. I wonder if that can be plugged into polling data?

Actually, Shrimpbox, you just supported my argument. Yes, Cheney's daughter is gay and she got pummeled so badly in polling (partly because she is gay) that she dropped out of the running. You just proved my point.

And as for Hillary, she has not even begun to peak yet.


And as for polling in a vacuum, I strongly but respectfully disagree with you: the best kind of match-up polling is the kind without any extra questions, because they are often used for so-called "push polling". A simple "if the election were held today, would you vote for ____, _____ or _____" is the very best, cleanest and most accurate form out there. Besides, it's not our business to know WHY people are leaning toward any candidate on any particular day. That is their personal, private stuff. Personal liberty and all that, you know.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Stat here is a question for you from another thread. How did Harry Reid pull off a victory when the polling was dead even or one or two points in favor of Angle in Nevada, at least from a pollsters standpoint?

Outstanding question, [MENTION=46351]Shrimpbox[/MENTION] -

the general concensus, with which I agree, is that the Latino vote was grossly underestimated in Nevada in 2010. Ditto for Colorado in 2010.

It was also grossly underestimated in New Mexico, Nevada and partly in Colorado in the 2008 presidential race.

It was again vastly underestimated in California and Colorado polling in the 2012 presidential race, but better adjusted in New Mexico and Nevada. This is why even the exit polls also showed 48/48 on election night, where Obama won 52/47 when all was said and done. Most polling in California "only" showed Obama +15 at the max. He won with a crushing +23. The polling averages were 8 points off in California.

Latino Vote, Latino Vote, Latino Vote.

 

[BreezeWood]

- Tal Kopan - POLITICO.com

Hillary Clinton, leads ‘16 Iowa poll

Clinton is the far and away favorite on the Democratic side, leading the next closest challenger, Vice President Joe Biden, 67 percent to 12 percent.
.............

The former first lady and senator leads all her potential Republican challengers by at least 4 points. She tops Huckabee 46 percent to 42 percent, Bush 45 percent to 41 percent, Paul 47 percent to 42 percent and Christie 45 percent to 39 percent.

.
What is important above is not the contrast with the Republicans but how H will fair in her own Democratic primary - in Iowa.

for Hillary to succeed she will have to first prove herself where she failed in 08 - Iowa. My guess, the Iowa pol is front and center for H in her decision whether to run or not in 2016.

.

 

[william the wie]

Three things will determine whether Hillary can even make a decent run:

1) Obamacare.

2) Changes in the rate at which talent and capital is fleeing blue states.

3) Changes in the approve/disapprove rating for Obama, a sitting president of her own party.

All three of these trends are moving slowly against the Ds the question is will the next 2.75 years compound the problems enough to make the big names stay out of the race? A secondary question is whether or not the Rs self-destruct over a gimme?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Stat ,pride goeth before the fall. Doesn't Cheney have a gay daughter, yeah knocks that one down.

What seems to be missing is that her polling is in a vacuum. What is the polling if you ask the question, Hilary is a big supporter of obamacare, would that effect your support of her candidacy? Etc.

There is so much that can happen between now and then that it is foolish to transpose today on nov. 2016. Are repubs behind on star power and leadership? Yep. But it is a problem that is fixable. On the other hand, Hilary might be peaking way too soon. I wonder if that can be plugged into polling data?

Actually, Shrimpbox, you just supported my argument. Yes, Cheney's daughter is gay and she got pummeled so badly in polling (partly because she is gay) that she dropped out of the running. You just proved my point.

And as for Hillary, she has not even begun to peak yet.


And as for polling in a vacuum, I strongly but respectfully disagree with you: the best kind of match-up polling is the kind without any extra questions, because they are often used for so-called "push polling". A simple "if the election were held today, would you vote for ____, _____ or _____" is the very best, cleanest and most accurate form out there. Besides, it's not our business to know WHY people are leaning toward any candidate on any particular day. That is their personal, private stuff. Personal liberty and all that, you know.

Do us a favor and shut the fuck up

And Hillary is NOT Getting the nomination but you're too much of a fucking pussy to bet me on it

"Serious health issues have recently arisen in our family, and under the circumstances, I have decided to discontinue my campaign," the eldest daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney said in a written statement......She was not specific about the health issues involved in her decision. But CNN has learned from multiple sources close to the family that they involve at least one of her children."

Liz Cheney abandons Senate bid - CNN.com

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's still 2014

 

[BreezeWood]

It's still 2014

it will not be "still" much longer, more like sizzling in short order from now till Nov. 4th ... the Rs are determined not to be disappointed.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Stat ,pride goeth before the fall. Doesn't Cheney have a gay daughter, yeah knocks that one down.

What seems to be missing is that her polling is in a vacuum. What is the polling if you ask the question, Hilary is a big supporter of obamacare, would that effect your support of her candidacy? Etc.

There is so much that can happen between now and then that it is foolish to transpose today on nov. 2016. Are repubs behind on star power and leadership? Yep. But it is a problem that is fixable. On the other hand, Hilary might be peaking way too soon. I wonder if that can be plugged into polling data?

Actually, Shrimpbox, you just supported my argument. Yes, Cheney's daughter is gay and she got pummeled so badly in polling (partly because she is gay) that she dropped out of the running. You just proved my point.

And as for Hillary, she has not even begun to peak yet.


And as for polling in a vacuum, I strongly but respectfully disagree with you: the best kind of match-up polling is the kind without any extra questions, because they are often used for so-called "push polling". A simple "if the election were held today, would you vote for ____, _____ or _____" is the very best, cleanest and most accurate form out there. Besides, it's not our business to know WHY people are leaning toward any candidate on any particular day. That is their personal, private stuff. Personal liberty and all that, you know.

Do us a favor and shut the fuck up

And Hillary is NOT Getting the nomination but you're too much of a fucking pussy to bet me on it

"Serious health issues have recently arisen in our family, and under the circumstances, I have decided to discontinue my campaign," the eldest daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney said in a written statement......She was not specific about the health issues involved in her decision. But CNN has learned from multiple sources close to the family that they involve at least one of her children."

Liz Cheney abandons Senate bid - CNN.com

NO, and you do not have the power to make me do that, either.

If you don't like the thread, you don't need to visit. It's really that simple.

 

[Statistikhengst]

It's still 2014

That is absolutely correct, and many Righties are missing the point of exactly why I am doing these threads.

 

[william the wie]

Based on throwing out the Rasmussen outlier it looks like the breakeven point this year will be D+ 9 for competent R candidates and with both houses likely using one or more proctoscopes on every agency the D brand is likely to sink in the polls 2015-6. The adverse economic impact of Ocare can be overcome by a D who is willing to go with a freer market alternative but Hillary cannot sell that story having been associated with both Hillarycare and Obamacare. So, I am not ruling out any possibility of D victory in 2016 but Hillary is not putting credible distance between herself and Obama with time running out for her to do so.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

It's still 2014

That is absolutely correct, and many Righties are missing the point of exactly why I am doing these threads.

I honestly don't know why pollsters waste their time and resources doing polls this early. Nobody knows who the candidates will even be and even if we did it still doesn't matter when the race is 2 1/2 years out.

 

[Statistikhengst]

It's still 2014

That is absolutely correct, and many Righties are missing the point of exactly why I am doing these threads.

I honestly don't know why pollsters waste their time and resources doing polls this early. Nobody knows who the candidates will even be and even if we did it still doesn't matter when the race is 2 1/2 years out.

I don't agree with you.

Silver that proven more than once that early polls are more predictive that people realize.

And it doesn't hurt to already establish a baseline.

Example:

In a difference place than here, I recorded the Ohio polling for Obama starting in 2010. Every single month, without exception, the President had an average of +4 over Romney. Every single month. People poo-poo'ed it all, said it was too early.

I countered that Ohio is the bellwether of the nation and tends to hug the national margin pretty closely.

All throughout 2011 and 2012, it was an average of Obama +4. You could "drop the needle" over any two-week, three-week or four-week period, and it was right around +4. Romney never led in composite polling in Ohio, not even once.

The election came. Obama won by +3. (+2.97, to be exact)

And nationally, he won by +4. (+3.86%, to be exact)

It was worth it to establish the baseline and, after the fact, to be able to look back and see what the sinus curve looked like.

Numbers, pure numbers.

 

[william the wie]

It's still 2014

That is absolutely correct, and many Righties are missing the point of exactly why I am doing these threads.

I honestly don't know why pollsters waste their time and resources doing polls this early. Nobody knows who the candidates will even be and even if we did it still doesn't matter when the race is 2 1/2 years out.

Mental calesthentics like my Economic Behavior is Emergent Behavior thread while more complex than sheep herding to increase their chances of outrunning someone even though they cannot outrun the wolf.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Based on throwing out the Rasmussen outlier it looks like the breakeven point this year will be D+ 9 for competent R candidates and with both houses likely using one or more proctoscopes on every agency the D brand is likely to sink in the polls 2015-6. The adverse economic impact of Ocare can be overcome by a D who is willing to go with a freer market alternative but Hillary cannot sell that story having been associated with both Hillarycare and Obamacare. So, I am not ruling out any possibility of D victory in 2016 but Hillary is not putting credible distance between herself and Obama with time running out for her to do so.

You opinion, which I respect. But I do not share it.

 

[Statistikhengst]

That is absolutely correct, and many Righties are missing the point of exactly why I am doing these threads.

I honestly don't know why pollsters waste their time and resources doing polls this early. Nobody knows who the candidates will even be and even if we did it still doesn't matter when the race is 2 1/2 years out.

Mental calesthentics like my Economic Behavior is Emergent Behavior thread while more complex than sheep herding to increase their chances of outrunning someone even though they cannot outrun the wolf.

I double-triple dare you to say that extremely long run-on sentence 20 times over without cracking up!!!

 

[william the wie]

Based on throwing out the Rasmussen outlier it looks like the breakeven point this year will be D+ 9 for competent R candidates and with both houses likely using one or more proctoscopes on every agency the D brand is likely to sink in the polls 2015-6. The adverse economic impact of Ocare can be overcome by a D who is willing to go with a freer market alternative but Hillary cannot sell that story having been associated with both Hillarycare and Obamacare. So, I am not ruling out any possibility of D victory in 2016 but Hillary is not putting credible distance between herself and Obama with time running out for her to do so.

You opinion, which I respect. But I do not share it.

Cool, I look at the out of pocket expenses from Ocare and you look at polling data. By the way I think your trendlines will hold up until the likely voter turnout data shows up in Sept. 2014 and 2016. Also foreign purchases of houses priced $500,000 or more are mostly in D strongholds such as CA, NYC, Chicago, Miami and Boston. When China lands hard those prices will start declining to magnify the local tax shortfalls in all but Miami which is more tied to Latin America than China for real estate appreciation to pump up Property taxes.

 

[william the wie]

I honestly don't know why pollsters waste their time and resources doing polls this early. Nobody knows who the candidates will even be and even if we did it still doesn't matter when the race is 2 1/2 years out.

Mental calesthentics like my Economic Behavior is Emergent Behavior thread while more complex than sheep herding to increase their chances of outrunning someone even though they cannot outrun the wolf.

I double-triple dare you to say that extremely long run-on sentence 20 times over without cracking up!!!

How do you think I do my rough drafts for my books? This site is much less prone to off-topic comments and "niceties" both of which are deal killers.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Based on throwing out the Rasmussen outlier it looks like the breakeven point this year will be D+ 9 for competent R candidates and with both houses likely using one or more proctoscopes on every agency the D brand is likely to sink in the polls 2015-6. The adverse economic impact of Ocare can be overcome by a D who is willing to go with a freer market alternative but Hillary cannot sell that story having been associated with both Hillarycare and Obamacare. So, I am not ruling out any possibility of D victory in 2016 but Hillary is not putting credible distance between herself and Obama with time running out for her to do so.

You opinion, which I respect. But I do not share it.

Cool, I look at the out of pocket expenses from Ocare and you look at polling data. By the way I think your trendlines will hold up until the likely voter turnout data shows up in Sept. 2014 and 2016. Also foreign purchases of houses priced $500,000 or more are mostly in D strongholds such as CA, NYC, Chicago, Miami and Boston. When China lands hard those prices will start declining to magnify the local tax shortfalls in all but Miami which is more tied to Latin America than China for real estate appreciation to pump up Property taxes.

Now, that IS interesting and I would be willing to look at the data with you!!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Mental calesthentics like my Economic Behavior is Emergent Behavior thread while more complex than sheep herding to increase their chances of outrunning someone even though they cannot outrun the wolf.

I double-triple dare you to say that extremely long run-on sentence 20 times over without cracking up!!!

How do you think I do my rough drafts for my books? This site is much less prone to off-topic comments and "niceties" both of which are deal killers.

lolz....