- Oct 20, 2013
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Contrary to some reports, the coronavirus is expected to be with us for well into 2021, with many more deaths. This is the opinion of top pandemic experts (Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota,
Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also a top expert on pandemics; Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist who is now medical director for CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, who wrote the 2004 book "The Great Influenza" about the 1918 flu pandemic).
One of the overlooked facets is that even if deaths decrease somewhat, one should note that in any epidemic, it is the oldest, most frail, people with pre-exiting conditions, and most negligent at taking precautions, who will die off in the beginning. After that, you have a pool of people less likely to die, but that doesn't mean the virus is any less potent or prolific.
Social distancing needs to keep going. Maybe it can be altered in some ways to enhance the economy, but the notion that the worst is past, and it's back to business as usual, is wrong and ridiculous. Herd immunity has not even begun yet, and it will be quite some time before it does, with its positive effects at flattening the curve, and dissipating the pandemic.
Harvard School of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also a top expert on pandemics; Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist who is now medical director for CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, who wrote the 2004 book "The Great Influenza" about the 1918 flu pandemic).
One of the overlooked facets is that even if deaths decrease somewhat, one should note that in any epidemic, it is the oldest, most frail, people with pre-exiting conditions, and most negligent at taking precautions, who will die off in the beginning. After that, you have a pool of people less likely to die, but that doesn't mean the virus is any less potent or prolific.
Social distancing needs to keep going. Maybe it can be altered in some ways to enhance the economy, but the notion that the worst is past, and it's back to business as usual, is wrong and ridiculous. Herd immunity has not even begun yet, and it will be quite some time before it does, with its positive effects at flattening the curve, and dissipating the pandemic.
