Can Italy, and thus the Euro, be Saved?

[cbirch2]

And edward, all ive seen you do is spout ignorance

 

[william the wie]

Um, do you understand numbers and maps and logic? Just because CA and IL run deficits doesnt change shit about that map. The US is still a transfer union in which liberal states pay more federal taxes than they get back and conservative states receive more federal aid than they contribute. In other words, when it comes to the federal budget, liberal states are net payers while conservative states generally are net takers.

Numbers dont lie.

No but they can be incomplete and/or misleading. West of the Mississippi for example the expense of using federal lands to interfere with local development is hard to sell as aid.

 

[Euro]

The periphery needs to spend less, this is true. But Germany and the other northern countries need to spend more

Good post!

How shall the northern countries spend their money, in which things?

 

[cbirch2]

The periphery needs to spend less, this is true. But Germany and the other northern countries need to spend more

Good post!

How shall the northern countries spend their money, in which things?

In whichever way unwinds the trade imbalance. I havent taken the time to see what greece or other euro countries import or export and what they may specialize in to become competitive once again. But I would think the most natural way would be for German companies to buy the goods that the new greek economy specializes in.

But regardless, its simple Saving-Investment model, dont you agree?

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

And edward, all ive seen you do is spout ignorance

If I've said anything that Milton Friedman would disagree with please try to point it out or admit that as a liberal you are wholly unequipped to do so.

Now you can understand why as a liberal you must resort to personal attack.

 

[cbirch2]

And edward, all ive seen you do is spout ignorance

If I've said anything that Milton Friedman would disagree with please try to point it out or admit that as a liberal you are wholly unequipped to do so.

Now you can understand why as a liberal you must resort to personal attack.

Im not "resorting" to a personal attack. Im following up a factual a statement with a personal attack, those are different. The first would be if i didnt have a response, the second would be if i didnt like you....

Its interesting that someone who ignores every fact i post and then just pops in to insult can accuse someone of "resorting to a personal attack".

I havent seen you say anything that qualifies for a competent understanding of economics, even by Friedmans terms.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

I havent seen you say anything that qualifies for a competent understanding of economics, even by Friedmans terms.

of course if true you would not be so afraid to give a substantive example for the whole world to see. What does your fear tell you about liberalism?

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

But I would think the most natural way would be for German companies to buy the goods that the new greek economy specializes in.

But regardless, its simple Saving-Investment model, dont you agree?

Greece is socialist. Becoming capitalist would be the best way to restore prosperity. Did you notice how well China has done following the tried and true Republican path? Greece needs to make unions illegal and eliminate anti-supply side business taxes so business will stop moving across the border to Bulgaria, for starters.

 

[cbirch2]

But I would think the most natural way would be for German companies to buy the goods that the new greek economy specializes in.

But regardless, its simple Saving-Investment model, dont you agree?

Greece is socialist. Becoming capitalist would be the best way to restore prosperity. Did you notice how well China has done following the tried and true Republican path? Greece needs to make unions illegal and eliminate anti-supply side business taxes so business will stop moving to Bulgaria, for starters.

There is a vast difference between being a socialist state with a socialist economy and having a socialist prime minister win one election. Does the state own the industries? No...

Swedens largest party is the Social Democratic Workers party. So why isnt swedens economy faltering and debt skyrocketing???

In Norway the largest party is the Labour party. Why are they doing fine???



Because its a trade problem!!!!!

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

There is a vast difference between being a socialist state with a socialist economy and having a socialist prime minister win one election. Does the state own the industries? No...

modern socialists know bureaucrats are, well, too bureaucratic to own a business. They would get a soviet result. So instead they prefer to tax and regulate heavily. Now you too understand modern socialism.

Swedens largest party is the Social Democratic Workers party. So why isnt swedens economy faltering and debt skyrocketing??

1) in may ways its more capitalist than we are, 2) its tiny and so not relevant anyway, 3) if its European neighbors can't copy it despite being neighbors and being favorably disposed to do so culturally and politicially , we sure can't even if we wanted to.

In Norway the largest party is the Labour party. Why are they doing fine???

Tons of oil. They heat streets in winter. But mostly just like Sweden

Because its a trade problem!!!!!

trade between people, states in the USA, or countrys
around the world is not a problem.

 

[cbirch2]

There is a vast difference between being a socialist state with a socialist economy and having a socialist prime minister win one election. Does the state own the industries? No...

modern socialist know bureaucrats are too bureaucratic to own a business. They would get a soviet result. So instead they prefer to tax and regulaten heavily. Now you too understand modern socialism.

Swedens largest party is the Social Democratic Workers party. So why isnt swedens economy faltering and debt skyrocketing??

1) in may ways its more capitalist than we are, 2) its tiny and so not relevant anyway, 3) if its European neighbors can't copy it despite being neighbors and being favorably disposed to do so culturally and politicially , we sure can't even if we wanted to.

1. pull shit from your ass to support your position 2. greece is smaller than sweden, so your argument is pretty shot 3. your argument is that we shouldnt even try?

In Norway the largest party is the Labour party. Why are they doing fine???

Tons of oil. They heat streets in winter. But mostly just like Sweden

Care to offer an explanation for every northern european country? There is no clear correlation between social welfare states and the countries in debt. There is however a correlation between trade deficits

Because its a trade problem!!!!!

trade between people, states in the USA, or countries around the world is not a problem.

Are you stupid?

Really? Are you stupid?

Its the trade balance....

So by your logic the United State trade deficit is "not a problem"? Because my argument is that this was caused, in the most general sense, by the greek trade deficit. Are you saying trade deficits arent a problem?

Because that would be a dumb argument to make...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

But I would think the most natural way would be for German companies to buy the goods that the new greek economy specializes in.

But regardless, its simple Saving-Investment model, dont you agree?

Greece is socialist. Becoming capitalist would be the best way to restore prosperity. Did you notice how well China has done following the tried and true Republican path? Greece needs to make unions illegal and eliminate anti-supply side business taxes so business will stop moving to Bulgaria, for starters.

There is a vast difference between being a socialist state with a socialist economy and having a socialist prime minister win one election. Does the state own the industries? No...

Swedens largest party is the Social Democratic Workers party. So why isnt swedens economy faltering and debt skyrocketing???

In Norway the largest party is the Labour party. Why are they doing fine???

Because its a trade problem!!!!!

You're a hysterical little fellow aren't you?

Socialism has failed and continues to fail over a billion people on the planet but you point to a counrty the size of Montana with the population of the Bronx and Brooklyn and massively benefiting from a homogeneous society with petrodollars out the yazoo as a "Success"

Laughable.

Why are they doing fine? every hear of "North Sea Crude oil"?

Take a wild guess where Norway is?

 

[cbirch2]

Here you go you massive idiot:

So this was caused by welfare states in southern europe? Please reconcile that view with the facts above.

Douche.

 

[cbirch2]

Greece is socialist. Becoming capitalist would be the best way to restore prosperity. Did you notice how well China has done following the tried and true Republican path? Greece needs to make unions illegal and eliminate anti-supply side business taxes so business will stop moving to Bulgaria, for starters.

There is a vast difference between being a socialist state with a socialist economy and having a socialist prime minister win one election. Does the state own the industries? No...

Swedens largest party is the Social Democratic Workers party. So why isnt swedens economy faltering and debt skyrocketing???

In Norway the largest party is the Labour party. Why are they doing fine???

Because its a trade problem!!!!!

You're a hysterical little fellow aren't you?

Socialism has failed and continues to fail over a billion people on the planet but you point to a county the size of Montana with the population of the Bronx and Brooklyn and massively benefiting from a homogeneous society with petrodollars out the yazoo as a "Success"

Laughable.

Why are they doing fine? every hear of "North Sea Crude oil"?

Take a wild guess where Norway is?

Did you figure if you left long enough i would forget that you admitted you had no idea what a trade balance was? Because i wont.

Since then you are nothing in my eyes. Why should i spend time talking to someone that doesnt understand one of the most fundamental concepts in economics?

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

So by your logic the United State trade deficit is "not a problem"? Because my argument is that this was caused, in the most general sense, by the greek trade deficit. Are you saying trade deficits arent a problem?

Because that would be a dumb argument to make...

in the most general sense the crisis is caused by Greece's inability to pay it debts. It did not balance its budget like our most liberal states, NY and CA. If Greece could pay its debts there would be no crisis.

If, for example, Greece started making better cars than Germany they might run a trade surplus but this does not mean they would balance their budget, pay their debts, and avert the crisis. Are you catching on at long last??


Let me give you the psychology of it. Liberals like Krugman know this but want to preserve the welfare state first and formost so they pretend with their very high IQ's that it is all an issue about intellectual policy formulations, not the simple responsible behavior that will balance the budget and largely end the unsustainable welfare state that his bleeding heart so loves. You have been his sock puppet and now you know why. Sorry

 

[CrusaderFrank]

There is a vast difference between being a socialist state with a socialist economy and having a socialist prime minister win one election. Does the state own the industries? No...

Swedens largest party is the Social Democratic Workers party. So why isnt swedens economy faltering and debt skyrocketing???

In Norway the largest party is the Labour party. Why are they doing fine???

Because its a trade problem!!!!!

You're a hysterical little fellow aren't you?

Socialism has failed and continues to fail over a billion people on the planet but you point to a county the size of Montana with the population of the Bronx and Brooklyn and massively benefiting from a homogeneous society with petrodollars out the yazoo as a "Success"

Laughable.

Why are they doing fine? every hear of "North Sea Crude oil"?

Take a wild guess where Norway is?

Did you figure if you left long enough i would forget that you admitted you had no idea what a trade balance was? Because i wont.

Since then you are nothing in my eyes. Why should i spend time talking to someone that doesnt understand one of the most fundamental concepts in economics?

No, I'm waiting for you to explain how trade balances drive an economy.

I suspect I'll be waiting a really fucking long time too.

Norway. LOL

Know how you can tell a Socialist economist lost an argument? They pull out Norway.

LOL

 

[Toro]

For the last time you ignorant fucktard, germany had to pay a premium on its bonds because the markets were preparing to be repaid in deustchmarks.

omfg you dont understand shit. you ignore ever fact someone posts and then pop back in to make some bullshit uneducated claim.

loser.

Ever get anything right? Even one thing?


12/2/11 WSJ: Some fund managers and market strategists say[German bonds] bunds are in a lose-lose situation. To resolve the euro-zone debt crisis, a move toward tighter fiscal union may be needed. But that would mean a bigger bailout tab being paid by Germany, potentially threatening its triple-A credit rating. Alternatively, the crisis could worsen, which could result in the collapse of the euro bloc and Germany having to shore up its banks. Both events could hurt bunds at a time when some investors already fret about the yields, which are trading near historic lows.

Thats one opinion. And from the WSJ, so we know what their opinion was going to be in advance.

A third option might be that investors perceive the ECB will allow inflation over 2%, so investors demand increased yields so their assets dont depreciate.

Even a fourth option might be that germany, like every country in the euro to some extent, is paying the price for not having a functional lender of last resort. When you look at EU countries not in the eurozone, but that are still pegged to the euro, you see a clear divergence of interest rates about 2 months ago. Suggesting eurozone countries have to pay higher interest rates because they have no LoLR

Either of these seem more likely than your explanation that germany will be at risk for default. Maybe even more likely than the end-of-the-euro scenario i argued for before.

Germany had a failed bond auction. They only sold €3.6 billion of bonds in a €6 billion auction, and rates spiked. It's not the end of the world. They had one in 2010 as well. But initially, with European government yields soaring, it looked like the bond market had decided that the rot was spreading from the periphery right into the core.

However, since that time, and after the announcement of the dollar liquidity swaps, yields on Spanish and French government bonds have collapsed while Italian yields fell. German yields have remained fairly constant. Thus, spreads over bunds have come in hard, leading one to conclude that the failed bond auction was due to an extremely overbought condition.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Ever get anything right? Even one thing?


12/2/11 WSJ: Some fund managers and market strategists say[German bonds] bunds are in a lose-lose situation. To resolve the euro-zone debt crisis, a move toward tighter fiscal union may be needed. But that would mean a bigger bailout tab being paid by Germany, potentially threatening its triple-A credit rating. Alternatively, the crisis could worsen, which could result in the collapse of the euro bloc and Germany having to shore up its banks. Both events could hurt bunds at a time when some investors already fret about the yields, which are trading near historic lows.

Thats one opinion. And from the WSJ, so we know what their opinion was going to be in advance.

A third option might be that investors perceive the ECB will allow inflation over 2%, so investors demand increased yields so their assets dont depreciate.

Even a fourth option might be that germany, like every country in the euro to some extent, is paying the price for not having a functional lender of last resort. When you look at EU countries not in the eurozone, but that are still pegged to the euro, you see a clear divergence of interest rates about 2 months ago. Suggesting eurozone countries have to pay higher interest rates because they have no LoLR

Either of these seem more likely than your explanation that germany will be at risk for default. Maybe even more likely than the end-of-the-euro scenario i argued for before.

Germany had a failed bond auction. They only sold €3.6 billion of bonds in a €6 billion auction, and rates spiked. It's not the end of the world. They had one in 2010 as well. But initially, with European government yields soaring, it looked like the bond market had decided that the rot was spreading from the periphery right into the core.

However, since that time, and after the announcement of the dollar liquidity swaps, yields on Spanish and French government bonds have collapsed while Italian yields fell. German yields have remained fairly constant. Thus, spreads over bunds have come in hard, leading one to conclude that the failed bond auction was due to an extremely overbought condition.

Sounds a lot like what some people were saying about Fannie and Freddie before they imploded

 

[Toro]

No, I'm waiting for you to explain how trade balances drive an economy.

Usually, trade imbalances are a symptom, not a cause. But they can be a cause because they can induce capital flight in the short-run. Negative trade balances are one of the first things macro traders screen for when looking to short a country.

In the long run, trade balances do not drive an economy.

 

[Toro]

Yet, for the euro to survive, politically fiscal consolidation is a must. It is the only quid pro quo that German and Dutch voters will accept for what they perceive as yet another bailout for the periphery. Now clearly, these bailouts are about protecting creditor country banks too but the bottom line is that there is zero political appetite for any sort of union that doesn’t have serious penalties for so-called free riders and their fiscal profligacy. I don’t see the situation in those terms, but I think that’s the messaging driving the political discussion in places like Germany and the Netherlands.

What this means, therefore, is that Merkel’s push for treaty changes is going to be about transforming the stability and growth pact into something that has teeth, something that allows for euro area oversight, penalises fiscal profligacy and even creates a path for expulsion. In some ways the mechanics are less relevant because they are in flux. For example, Merkel is pushing to avoid the Schengen route to agreement as an intermediate step because it would mean a two-tier euro zone. Let’s see what happens here.

What is really relevant is the vision; and that vision is a for a bailout followed by a hard currency United Europe which practices fiscal discipline. ...

Most likely, the cuts in the public sector will lead to a deflationary spiral in the periphery (and maybe even the core) via defaults, debt distress and bank balance sheet deleveraging. There is zero chance countries like Greece will make the grade then.

Euro zone breakup is inevitable. As I wrote last month, convergence has not come to pass. It is becoming increasingly clear that convergence will never come to pass. The euro zone is unworkable. It needs tighter fiscal integration to succeed and it can’t have that unless it gets convergence. The Europeans are starting to recognize this and so breakup is now inevitable.

I don’t think the breakup would happen straight away because we are in a crisis and a breakup now would also lead to a significant economic Depression. But the panic button to eject countries will soon be enshrined into law and the euro will no longer be a roach motel where countries check in but they can’t check out. Once the situation is stabilised, thoughts will turn to these issues.

And, yes I do think the situation will stabilise because policy makers are willing to socialise as many of the losses as it takes. They will go to any length and have their people bear any cost to prevent this thing from collapsing and triggering Depression. This was not evident before this past week. But it is certainly evident now.

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