Can Democrats hold their majority?

[xotoxi]

Toro you don't even seem to understand that you need to win 10 Democratic seats and all your Republican seats to break even. There are not even 10 threatened Democratic seats, most are safe Democratic seats.

Right, but you said there's this tidal wave breaking towards the GOP in two years. If you are correct, then there are few safe seats for the Democrats.

I mean, I don't know. I'm not arguing that the GOP won't win back both chambers over the next 2, 4, 6 years or whatever. What I'm arguing is that you can conclusively say there is this a massive shift moving towards the GOP. If that were the case, then we wouldn't have 60 Democrat Senators and the GOP pretty much irrelevant nationally because the trends you cited have been going on for some time, if you believe your assumptions.

Additionally, with the premise of only 10 Democratic seats going Republican, doesn't really seem much of a tidal wave, seeing that the Senate would be split.

A shift of 20 seats would be called a tidal wave.

 

[SouthernPlanter]

You're failing to see the bigger picture Toro.

The US is more Republican, right now...than it was in 1992 or 1996 or 2000.

There has been a crest but the trend longer term has been growth; the geographic positioning of the Republican Party is better situated than the Democratic Party which is losing safe seats while Republicans are gaining safe seats.

This is a tide, and you just aren't using enough foresight.

 

[Iriemon]

I have quantitative evidence to suggest that Democrats cannot hold their majority, and that the United States is trending toward a long term and eventual Social-Conservative Consensus.

Could be.

Prior to 2006 I remember reading posts and articles of this nature about how conservatives were the
new majority and would control the Congress and government for decades.

Though right now the Dems seem to be growing in majority.

 

[DiamondDave]

I think the Dems will still hold a majority... but there will be a slight trend back in some seats up for grabs.. maybe even a couple real "upsets"...

BUT... that is a gut feeling right now... you never know until election time... what the pulse of the nation is... what topics are hot... etc...
Who would have thought a no experience blow hard would win the presidency in 2008, or that a hack comedian would win a senate seat? Normally those things would not happen, but there was a mania, a lashback against Bush, a negative economic event, and a few more things. And that swayed for the change hype. But all things do eventually swing back on the pendulum...

 

[editec]

The DEMS will start losing support when/if the economy doesn't turn around.

In the words of the former Clinton campaign

It's the ECONOMY, stupid​