Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by jillian, Oct 14, 2010.

  1. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    I love nate silver:

    Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

    my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.
     
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  2. WillowTree
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    WillowTree Diamond Member

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    Is he looking into why Illinois cannot get the military ballots mailed out on time? That's a much more important issue donchyathink? :cuckoo:
     
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  3. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    poor willow.

    thanks for your input.
     
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  4. geauxtohell
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    geauxtohell Choose your weapon.

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    This was brought up in the last election and (IMO) was a factor in why Obama beat McCain by a larger majority than the poll margin.

    Case in point; I haven't had a landline in five years. I've had a cellphone with a Hawaii number for the past eight years while living in Louisiana, Virginia, and Missouri.

    I always vote, and I vote liberal.

    Not accounting for cellphone-only cuts out a significant portion of the voters in the 18-30 demographic IMO.
     
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  5. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    It makes sense that if it's younger people who have cell phones only; and if younger people largely vote democratic; and if those people aren't being accounted for in polling data, that the results may not be accurate.

    now, it may well be that in states we think of as 'red states', the number of such voters is statistically insignificant and the results wouldn't look any different; and it may well be that in states like ny, the representatives sample is pretty close to what the cell phone only demographic would look like.

    but it is an interesting question. one that's certainly validly raised.
     
  6. Dr.House
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    Dr.House Lives on in syndication!

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    I don't think the number is statistically relevent, even in heavily democrat party areas...

    Of that 25% of the populatiion that supposedly has no land line, what percentage are actually registered? Take that number and subtract the number who don't actually go out and vote... Then, factor in the number of people who don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize on their cell phone.... Next, from those that actually spend their minutes on a survey, determine if the statistical difference beween D and R and I and Undecided s enough to make a difference....

    Aditionally, if the claim that most of the no-landliners are young people, that is the demographic least likely to vote, especially in a mid-term election...
     
  7. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    you might be correct. but it seems to be that if a certain demographic is left out, it might be relevant in key races.... particularly close ones.

    as for them not voting. that wasn't true in 2008. whether they can be fired up now is a separate issue.

    if you think back to the 60's and 70's, that demographic ended a war.
     
  8. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    This looks like a desperate excuse.

    Conservatives use cell phones - as well as the internet (which has surprised the left).
     
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  9. Luissa
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    Luissa Annoying Customer Supporting Member

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    I only use a cell phone, and never get polled. I do have pollsters call my parents house for me.
     
  10. WillowTree
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    WillowTree Diamond Member

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    You are most welcome.
     

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