Billions Up For Grabs If Nuclear Deal Opens Iran Economy

Lakhota

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Jul 14, 2011
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* Biggest economy to rejoin global system in decades

* Complex sanctions will take years to dismantle

* But easing of banking curbs could provide quick boost

* Good news for Gulf logistics, transport firms

* Other parts of Gulf Arab economies may suffer

By Andrew Torchia

DUBAI, April 3 (Reuters) - Iranian investment banker Ramin Rabii says he shouted in joy when he learned that Tehran and world powers had reached a deal which promises to lift economic sanctions on Iran. Then he called colleagues to discuss the business implications.

Rabii, managing director of Turquoise Partners, a Tehran-based investment firm with about $200 million of assets under management, has been grappling for years with the results of the sanctions: unstable growth, high inflation, international banking restrictions and hard currency shortages.

The agreement on curbing Iran's nuclear program, reached on Thursday, will - if confirmed in a final deal by a June 30 deadline - begin to ease those crippling problems for Turquoise and thousands of other Iranian firms.

"We've been preparing for this moment for 10 years," Rabii said by telephone, adding that in the months leading up to the deal Turquoise was in touch with hundreds of potential foreign investors about opportunities for them if sanctions were lifted.

He said the company now planned to develop its asset management and brokerage businesses, and would hold roadshows for investors in Europe and possibly Dubai.

Frozen out of the international banking system, its foreign trade slashed by the sanctions, Iran looks likely to become the biggest country to rejoin the global economy since post-Communist eastern Europe in the early 1990s.

The resulting boom could create tens of billions of dollars worth of business for both local and foreign companies and shift the economic balance in the Gulf, which has so far been heavily weighted towards the rich Gulf Arab oil exporting countries.

"Precautionary talks have already started between Iran and some big Western investors" in areas such as oil and autos, said Iranian-born economist Mehrdad Emadi of London's Betamatrix consultancy. "Now there will be accelerating momentum."

He predicted annual growth of Iran's $420 billion economy would rise by as much as 2 percentage points to over 5 percent in the year after a final nuclear deal. It could accelerate further to 7 or 8 percent in the following 18 months - matching the growth of Asia's "tiger economies" during their boom years.

Iran's trade with the European Union, which totalled 7.6 billion euros ($8.3 billion) last year, could balloon 400 percent by mid-2018, Emadi said.

More: Billions Up For Grabs If Nuclear Deal Opens Iran Economy

Capitalists will be pushing hard for this deal.
 
There is also a potential economic downside. Right now oil prices are barely keeping a whole of workers from being laid off. Dump Iranian oil on the market and the frakking industry could collapse. That would hit American hard and be the start of another recession.

I am sure the commodities futures traders have already started factoring that into their bets....er, trades.
 
The OP is incorrect.

Capitalists won't be pushing for this deal. Big Government Cronies will.
 
So let's reward Iran for being the world's foremost terrorist state, eh, Obozo?
 
There's no deal. China, Russia and France walked out. World powers agreed to nothing. This is some kind of bizarre hookah dream.

An arab coalition is forming against Iran that will plunge the middle east into a regional war making sanctions a moot point.

Liberals are so deluded. They live in this little dream world.
 
There's no deal. China, Russia and France walked out. World powers agreed to nothing. This is some kind of bizarre hookah dream.

An arab coalition is forming against Iran that will plunge the middle east into a regional war making sanctions a moot point.

Liberals are so deluded. They live in this little dream world.

Meanwhile, President Obama is keeping us safe - except from the hateful, delusional homegrown NaziCons who hate him for keeping them safe.
 

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