Benchmarking IPCC’s warming predictions

[ScienceRocks]

Benchmarking IPCC’s warming predictions

Posted on May 5, 2013 by Guest Blogger
Benchmarking IPCC?s warming predictions | Watts Up With That?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The IPCC’s forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report continues to suggest that the Earth will warm rapidly in the 21st century. How far are its projections short of observed reality?

A monthly benchmark graph, circulated widely to the news media, will help to dispel the costly notion that the world continues to warm at a rapid and dangerous rate.

The objective is to compare the IPCC’s projections with observed temperature changes at a glance.

The IPCC’s interval of temperature projections from 2005 is taken from the spaghetti-graph in AR5, which was based on 34 models running four anthropogenic-forcing scenarios.

Curiously, the back-projections for the training period from 2005-2013 are not centered either side of the observational record (shown in black): they are substantially above outturn. Nevertheless, I have followed the IPCC, adopting the approximate upper and lower bounds of its spaghetti-graph.



The 34 models’ central projection (in yellow below) is that warming from 2005-2050 should occur at a rate equivalent to approximately 2.3 Cº/century. This is below the IPCC’s long-established 3 Cº centennial prediction because the models expect warming to accelerate after 2050. The IPCC’s upper-bound and lower-bound projections are equivalent to 1.1 and 3.6 Cº/century respectively.

I'm posting pro and anti global warming stories...What do you think about this? Does it hold any truth. Discuss it.

 

[skookerasbil]

Models = useful for understanding how the atmosphere works. As predictors.......worthless.


The models are wrong | Behind The Black


And just over the past 10 years, these "models" have been used to make prognostications about snow, tornado's, drought, hurricanes etc.......none of which have turned out to be correct.


Interestingly, the "models" always referenced by the warmists contingent have been at the center of every hail mary pass prediction that has fallen flat on its face and led to what has become a complete lack of credibility.......yet they continue to use them in bold fashion.


http://www.examiner.com/article/predictions-of-climate-change-induced-natural-disasters-falling-flat

http://www.examiner.com/article/where-are-the-hurricanes-tropical-cyclone-activity-at-30-year-low

http://www.examiner.com/article/where-are-the-tornadoes-2009-tornado-reports-well-below-normal-levels



http://www.examiner.com/article/al-gore-urges-scientists-to-be-political-to-face-a-threat-to-the-entirety-of-human-civilization



http://www.examiner.com/article/al-gore-forced-to-pull-misleading-slide-from-presentation





These folks evidently never heard the pharase "Fool me once, shame on you........fool me twice........"


Time for Plan B.








Gotta remember Matthew..........the committed warmists dont care about the alternative science. Its dismissed out of hand.......instantly.

 

[mamooth]

The OP references Monckton. If it comes from Monckton, it's understood that the work is full of outright fabrications. It's how Monckton works. It's actually how most denialists work, but Monckton is much more brazen with his fabrications, and much more likely to threaten legal action if you point out the fabrications.

 

[Old Rocks]

I would triple check anything that Monckton writes. He has been caught in all too many outright fabrications.

That the warming is less than that amount of CO2 at present in the atmosphere would indicate it should be is a fact. Also a fact is that China and India are putting out huge amounts of aerosols. And we have had a series of La Nina's. Plus a decline in the TSI. However, the latter three facts state that we should be in a strong cooling trend, not a plateuing of the present. Should any one of these factors change, aerosols, a strong El Nino, or a return to the previous TSI, you will see an increase in the rate of warming. Should two of them change, there will be an increase to the increase, and, should all three change, Katy bar the door.