Arctic heat

[Old Rocks]

LOL Goddamn! Engineer, eh? Lordy, lordy. The slopes of the lines are very different on a graph with the same scales for time and temperature. That you cannot grasp that puts a lie to your claim to be an engineer.

No. The slopes are not very different. Use your eyes. But even if they were, that doesn't mean diddly squat. The reality is that we are still below the peak temperatures of the last 4 interglacial cycles. What part of this do you not understand?

Good God, again, you claim to be an engineer?

In the upper graph, on the Y axis, the distance for ten degrees is the same as the distance for one degree on the bottom graph. On the X axis, the distance on the upper graph for 200,000 years is only about 700 years on the bottom graph. So the slopes are very different if you put them on the same scales. It took, on the upper graph, a minimum of ten thousand years to warm from the bottom of the glacial, to the maximum warmth of the interglacial. That is less than a degree every thousand years.

So, on the bottom graph, put a dot at -1 degrees at 500. Now put a dot at 0 degrees at 1500. Draw a line between them. That is your slope for the glacial to interglacial warmup. Now look at that slope on the last 150 years. That is a fairly accurate comparison of the two slopes. Dingleberry, you are rapidly demonstrating that you intellect is in the same class as SSDD and Frankie boi.

So, you have a rise of about 1 degree in a thousand years, and you have a rise of over 1 degree in 150 years, and you are stating that you cannot see them on the lower graph? Man, no way you are an engineer. Yes, you can calculate the slope of a line, but you can also graph that line. And the line on that graph from -1.0 degrees at 500, to 0 degrees at 1500, a span of 1000 years, has a far lower slope than the line on that graph that shows the slope of the rise in the last 150 years. That you would argue with that demonstrates you are completely unable to read simple graphs.

I guess I am going to have to show you graphically what I am saying for you to understand.

LOL. So you are going to show me how one degree in a thousand years has the same slope as over one degree in one hundred and fifty years. This should be fun.

 

[Billy_Bob]

LOL Goddamn! Engineer, eh? Lordy, lordy. The slopes of the lines are very different on a graph with the same scales for time and temperature. That you cannot grasp that puts a lie to your claim to be an engineer.

No. The slopes are not very different. Use your eyes. But even if they were, that doesn't mean diddly squat. The reality is that we are still below the peak temperatures of the last 4 interglacial cycles. What part of this do you not understand?

Good God, again, you claim to be an engineer?

In the upper graph, on the Y axis, the distance for ten degrees is the same as the distance for one degree on the bottom graph. On the X axis, the distance on the upper graph for 200,000 years is only about 700 years on the bottom graph. So the slopes are very different if you put them on the same scales. It took, on the upper graph, a minimum of ten thousand years to warm from the bottom of the glacial, to the maximum warmth of the interglacial. That is less than a degree every thousand years.

So, on the bottom graph, put a dot at -1 degrees at 500. Now put a dot at 0 degrees at 1500. Draw a line between them. That is your slope for the glacial to interglacial warmup. Now look at that slope on the last 150 years. That is a fairly accurate comparison of the two slopes. Dingleberry, you are rapidly demonstrating that you intellect is in the same class as SSDD and Frankie boi.

So, you have a rise of about 1 degree in a thousand years, and you have a rise of over 1 degree in 150 years, and you are stating that you cannot see them on the lower graph? Man, no way you are an engineer. Yes, you can calculate the slope of a line, but you can also graph that line. And the line on that graph from -1.0 degrees at 500, to 0 degrees at 1500, a span of 1000 years, has a far lower slope than the line on that graph that shows the slope of the rise in the last 150 years. That you would argue with that demonstrates you are completely unable to read simple graphs.

I guess I am going to have to show you graphically what I am saying for you to understand.

He graduated from the Crick School of Graph Reading.. He doesn't have a dam clue.. You could use Crayolas and make a bunch of squiggly lines and he would find a way to make it support AGW and the liberal agenda..

 

[Billy_Bob]

No. The slopes are not very different. Use your eyes. But even if they were, that doesn't mean diddly squat. The reality is that we are still below the peak temperatures of the last 4 interglacial cycles. What part of this do you not understand?

Good God, again, you claim to be an engineer?

In the upper graph, on the Y axis, the distance for ten degrees is the same as the distance for one degree on the bottom graph. On the X axis, the distance on the upper graph for 200,000 years is only about 700 years on the bottom graph. So the slopes are very different if you put them on the same scales. It took, on the upper graph, a minimum of ten thousand years to warm from the bottom of the glacial, to the maximum warmth of the interglacial. That is less than a degree every thousand years.

So, on the bottom graph, put a dot at -1 degrees at 500. Now put a dot at 0 degrees at 1500. Draw a line between them. That is your slope for the glacial to interglacial warmup. Now look at that slope on the last 150 years. That is a fairly accurate comparison of the two slopes. Dingleberry, you are rapidly demonstrating that you intellect is in the same class as SSDD and Frankie boi.

So, you have a rise of about 1 degree in a thousand years, and you have a rise of over 1 degree in 150 years, and you are stating that you cannot see them on the lower graph? Man, no way you are an engineer. Yes, you can calculate the slope of a line, but you can also graph that line. And the line on that graph from -1.0 degrees at 500, to 0 degrees at 1500, a span of 1000 years, has a far lower slope than the line on that graph that shows the slope of the rise in the last 150 years. That you would argue with that demonstrates you are completely unable to read simple graphs.

I guess I am going to have to show you graphically what I am saying for you to understand.

LOL. So you are going to show me how one degree in a thousand years has the same slope as over one degree in one hundred and fifty years. This should be fun.

You don't have a dam clue...

What happens to that 150 years of data points when it is added to 500 years of data points and averaged to create a single data point? The warming is still there its is just not visible due to SPATIAL RESOLUTION...

This is the same reason that you can not show CO2 has never risen as fast as it has the last 100 years.. The resolution hides the rates of increase by consolidation into larger spatial resolution.

You alarmist idiots are lost causes..

 

[ScienceRocks]

Arctic Air Temperatures are Set to Hit 35 to 55 F Above Average by Thursday — Out of Season Sea Ice Melt Possible, Again
“It looks like a triple whammy – a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic.” — NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice extent growth has once again slowed this week…” — Zack Labe

“Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week… over 25C warmer than average in parts.” — James Warner

****

This year, it’s a challenge to find a time when the Arctic Ocean has ever represented anything resembling normalcy. Record low sea ice extent values have occurred for more than 50 percent of days measured. And well above average temperatures have invaded the Arctic during winter, spring, and fall. With another huge wave of ridiculous warmth building up over eastern Siberia this week, the hits just keep on coming.

Major Warming Over Siberia, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas

The present big warm air invasion has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. There, a large high pressure system over the Bering Sea is facing off with a strong low moving up across Kamchatka. Running between the two is a powerful south-to-north wind pattern.



(A major warm wind invasion of the Arctic on Thursday is originating in the subtropical Pacific. A ridge in the Jet Stream extending all the way to the North Pole is pulling this big bulge of warm air north. As a result, extreme temperature departures and out of season sea ice melt for the impacted zones are likely. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As we can see in the image above, the flood of warm air has its origin around the 30 north latitude line. It flows directly over hundreds of miles of ocean, at times reaching a storm-force intensity near 70 mph. As it crosses into Siberia, the wind slows down. But it inexorably continues north, ever north — driven on by a serious pulse of atmospheric steam. By early Thursday, the leading edge of this warm air outburst from the Pacific side will have crossed the Pole and led to a flushing of Central Arctic air out into the Barents Sea and North Atlantic (you can view an animation of the predicted warm air pulse here).

This strong northward flood of warmth from the Pacific is running up under an extreme high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream that is bellowing out into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering and Chukchi seas. At its peak northward extent, the big Jet Stream wave is predicted to look something like this. And it is this severe contortion in the upper level wind pattern that has enabled this most recent extreme warm wind event to occur.

This pattern is now in the process of injecting above-freezing air temperatures into Eastern Siberia. By tomorrow, the warm air mass will encounter the coastal regions of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas. There, it will push temperatures as high as 2.5 C (37 F) over zones that typically see readings in the -20s to -30s (Celsius). As a result, temperatures will range between 20 and 30 C (35 to 55 F) or more above average for many locations.



(Climate Reanalyzer has added a new color — white — for tracking extreme departures in temperature. In the positive anomaly column, we find departures hitting 30 C, or 54 F, above average for regions of East Siberia and the local Arctic Ocean.)

To be clear, these temperatures are highly abnormal. If a similar temperature departure happened in Gaithersburg, Maryland on December 8, it would produce 80 to 100 degree (F) readings. Of course, this anomaly is not happening in Gaithersburg. Due to a global warming related process called polar amplification in which the poles are more sensitive to alterations in rising greenhouse gas levels (due to fossil fuel and related emissions), extreme temperature anomalies tend to occur at the poles as rates of relative warming are 2-3 times faster in those regions. And the factors that we observe associated with this new Arctic warm wind event — powerful south-to-north meridional air flows coupled with extreme high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — are also evidence of a number of weird new atmospheric circulation patterns that can tend to pop up as polar amplification intensifies.

Warm Winds May Cause Unprecedented Back-to-Back Fall Sea Ice Melt

The Pacific side of the Arctic has already been gaining heat ahead of the oncoming warm wind event over the past few days. And what we have seen, as a result, is a pretty severe loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea during early December. To be very clear, Arctic sea ice should be advancing at this time of year. But what we see in the image below (provided by A-Team over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum) is advance followed by retreat as the warm wind event starts to ramp up.



(Ice refreeze in the Chukchi advances until it is rolled back by the most recent onrush of warm air flowing in from the Pacific. Image provided by A-Team at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Forum.)

Of course, the retreat seen above has occurred before the main force of warm southerly winds — due to hit the Arctic Ocean region by tomorrow. So the risks for continued losses in the Chukchi extend for at least the next few days. Losses there could be offset by large enough gains elsewhere to continue an overall seasonal freeze trend. But so far, with abnormal warmth also periodically building in over the near-Svalbard region and with Hudson Bay refreeze continuing to lag, that does not appear to be happening.

Looking at the larger monitors, we also find that, as happened during October and November, the pace of overall sea ice growth has stalled. According to JAXA, over the past 4 days, sea ice extent has only grown by 50,000 square kilometers. During a typical similar four day period for this time of year, growth would tend to average around 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. And with values at current record low levels, the inertial impetus for ice growth would be higher. That is, unless the climate state of the Arctic has radically changed — which appears to be the case.



(According to JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent has again hit a plateau when it should be freezing — this time at around 10 million square kilometers. As sea ice follows that line, record lows are again deepening — hitting near 750,000 square kilometers below previous lows for the day in 2006. Considering the fact that another major warming event is building into the Arctic Ocean, this plateau could again tip into melt as happened during the middle of November. Image source: JAXA.)

During mid November, a period of unprecedented warming produced an almost unprecedented period of fall melt. A similar November melt occurred during 2013. But the amount of melt then was smaller. And that melt did not occur at a time when Arctic sea ice values were at new record lows — as they were throughout the entire month during 2016. Similarly, during October, abnormally warm conditions produced an odd re-freeze plateau similar to the one we are now experiencing.

Given current conditions, there’s a risk that we could see a December melt event following the November melt event. For the amount of heat hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is predicted to fall far outside of normal temperature ranges. And, barring major refreeze on the Atlantic side, we are at a rather higher risk of seeing the present plateau in sea ice values carry on for a number of days.

 

[Old Rocks]

Damn. You know, I think that 2017 is going to be an even more interesting year than 2016. And I do mean that in the Chinese sense of that statement.

 

[jc456]

Damn. You know, I think that 2017 is going to be an even more interesting year than 2016. And I do mean that in the Chinese sense of that statement.

Damn, you know AGW is going down in 2017, fk n a!!!!

 

[westwall]

Arctic Air Temperatures are Set to Hit 35 to 55 F Above Average by Thursday — Out of Season Sea Ice Melt Possible, Again
“It looks like a triple whammy – a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic.” — NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice extent growth has once again slowed this week…” — Zack Labe

“Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week… over 25C warmer than average in parts.” — James Warner

****

This year, it’s a challenge to find a time when the Arctic Ocean has ever represented anything resembling normalcy. Record low sea ice extent values have occurred for more than 50 percent of days measured. And well above average temperatures have invaded the Arctic during winter, spring, and fall. With another huge wave of ridiculous warmth building up over eastern Siberia this week, the hits just keep on coming.

Major Warming Over Siberia, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas

The present big warm air invasion has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. There, a large high pressure system over the Bering Sea is facing off with a strong low moving up across Kamchatka. Running between the two is a powerful south-to-north wind pattern.



(A major warm wind invasion of the Arctic on Thursday is originating in the subtropical Pacific. A ridge in the Jet Stream extending all the way to the North Pole is pulling this big bulge of warm air north. As a result, extreme temperature departures and out of season sea ice melt for the impacted zones are likely. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As we can see in the image above, the flood of warm air has its origin around the 30 north latitude line. It flows directly over hundreds of miles of ocean, at times reaching a storm-force intensity near 70 mph. As it crosses into Siberia, the wind slows down. But it inexorably continues north, ever north — driven on by a serious pulse of atmospheric steam. By early Thursday, the leading edge of this warm air outburst from the Pacific side will have crossed the Pole and led to a flushing of Central Arctic air out into the Barents Sea and North Atlantic (you can view an animation of the predicted warm air pulse here).

This strong northward flood of warmth from the Pacific is running up under an extreme high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream that is bellowing out into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering and Chukchi seas. At its peak northward extent, the big Jet Stream wave is predicted to look something like this. And it is this severe contortion in the upper level wind pattern that has enabled this most recent extreme warm wind event to occur.

This pattern is now in the process of injecting above-freezing air temperatures into Eastern Siberia. By tomorrow, the warm air mass will encounter the coastal regions of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas. There, it will push temperatures as high as 2.5 C (37 F) over zones that typically see readings in the -20s to -30s (Celsius). As a result, temperatures will range between 20 and 30 C (35 to 55 F) or more above average for many locations.



(Climate Reanalyzer has added a new color — white — for tracking extreme departures in temperature. In the positive anomaly column, we find departures hitting 30 C, or 54 F, above average for regions of East Siberia and the local Arctic Ocean.)

To be clear, these temperatures are highly abnormal. If a similar temperature departure happened in Gaithersburg, Maryland on December 8, it would produce 80 to 100 degree (F) readings. Of course, this anomaly is not happening in Gaithersburg. Due to a global warming related process called polar amplification in which the poles are more sensitive to alterations in rising greenhouse gas levels (due to fossil fuel and related emissions), extreme temperature anomalies tend to occur at the poles as rates of relative warming are 2-3 times faster in those regions. And the factors that we observe associated with this new Arctic warm wind event — powerful south-to-north meridional air flows coupled with extreme high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — are also evidence of a number of weird new atmospheric circulation patterns that can tend to pop up as polar amplification intensifies.

Warm Winds May Cause Unprecedented Back-to-Back Fall Sea Ice Melt

The Pacific side of the Arctic has already been gaining heat ahead of the oncoming warm wind event over the past few days. And what we have seen, as a result, is a pretty severe loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea during early December. To be very clear, Arctic sea ice should be advancing at this time of year. But what we see in the image below (provided by A-Team over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum) is advance followed by retreat as the warm wind event starts to ramp up.



(Ice refreeze in the Chukchi advances until it is rolled back by the most recent onrush of warm air flowing in from the Pacific. Image provided by A-Team at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Forum.)

Of course, the retreat seen above has occurred before the main force of warm southerly winds — due to hit the Arctic Ocean region by tomorrow. So the risks for continued losses in the Chukchi extend for at least the next few days. Losses there could be offset by large enough gains elsewhere to continue an overall seasonal freeze trend. But so far, with abnormal warmth also periodically building in over the near-Svalbard region and with Hudson Bay refreeze continuing to lag, that does not appear to be happening.

Looking at the larger monitors, we also find that, as happened during October and November, the pace of overall sea ice growth has stalled. According to JAXA, over the past 4 days, sea ice extent has only grown by 50,000 square kilometers. During a typical similar four day period for this time of year, growth would tend to average around 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. And with values at current record low levels, the inertial impetus for ice growth would be higher. That is, unless the climate state of the Arctic has radically changed — which appears to be the case.



(According to JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent has again hit a plateau when it should be freezing — this time at around 10 million square kilometers. As sea ice follows that line, record lows are again deepening — hitting near 750,000 square kilometers below previous lows for the day in 2006. Considering the fact that another major warming event is building into the Arctic Ocean, this plateau could again tip into melt as happened during the middle of November. Image source: JAXA.)

During mid November, a period of unprecedented warming produced an almost unprecedented period of fall melt. A similar November melt occurred during 2013. But the amount of melt then was smaller. And that melt did not occur at a time when Arctic sea ice values were at new record lows — as they were throughout the entire month during 2016. Similarly, during October, abnormally warm conditions produced an odd re-freeze plateau similar to the one we are now experiencing.

Given current conditions, there’s a risk that we could see a December melt event following the November melt event. For the amount of heat hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is predicted to fall far outside of normal temperature ranges. And, barring major refreeze on the Atlantic side, we are at a rather higher risk of seeing the present plateau in sea ice values carry on for a number of days.

Hmmmmmm. Who to believe.....


"Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead
By Jonathan Belles
Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT
weather.com



Siberia is known to be one of the coldest places on the planet, but exactly how cold and snowy it gets each year has big ramifications elsewhere on the globe.

In North America, a more snow-covered Russia means that colder air will have an easier time harvesting in Siberia and departing for our continent's heartland. Early in the calendar year, the air coming from Siberia can be cold enough to bring snow to even more southern reaches of the United States if the pattern sets up correctly."

Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead

 

[gipper]

Damn. You know, I think that 2017 is going to be an even more interesting year than 2016. And I do mean that in the Chinese sense of that statement.

What was so interesting about 2016? Could you please lay it on me?

 

[Old Rocks]

Well now, third year in a row of record warm temperatures, each year being warmer than the last. Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice at record lows through the fall. A few floods here and there in the 500 and thousand year range. A major forest fire after Thanksgiving that burns a town in Tennessee. Just to start.

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Air Temperatures are Set to Hit 35 to 55 F Above Average by Thursday — Out of Season Sea Ice Melt Possible, Again
“It looks like a triple whammy – a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic.” — NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice extent growth has once again slowed this week…” — Zack Labe

“Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week… over 25C warmer than average in parts.” — James Warner

****

This year, it’s a challenge to find a time when the Arctic Ocean has ever represented anything resembling normalcy. Record low sea ice extent values have occurred for more than 50 percent of days measured. And well above average temperatures have invaded the Arctic during winter, spring, and fall. With another huge wave of ridiculous warmth building up over eastern Siberia this week, the hits just keep on coming.

Major Warming Over Siberia, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas

The present big warm air invasion has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. There, a large high pressure system over the Bering Sea is facing off with a strong low moving up across Kamchatka. Running between the two is a powerful south-to-north wind pattern.



(A major warm wind invasion of the Arctic on Thursday is originating in the subtropical Pacific. A ridge in the Jet Stream extending all the way to the North Pole is pulling this big bulge of warm air north. As a result, extreme temperature departures and out of season sea ice melt for the impacted zones are likely. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As we can see in the image above, the flood of warm air has its origin around the 30 north latitude line. It flows directly over hundreds of miles of ocean, at times reaching a storm-force intensity near 70 mph. As it crosses into Siberia, the wind slows down. But it inexorably continues north, ever north — driven on by a serious pulse of atmospheric steam. By early Thursday, the leading edge of this warm air outburst from the Pacific side will have crossed the Pole and led to a flushing of Central Arctic air out into the Barents Sea and North Atlantic (you can view an animation of the predicted warm air pulse here).

This strong northward flood of warmth from the Pacific is running up under an extreme high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream that is bellowing out into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering and Chukchi seas. At its peak northward extent, the big Jet Stream wave is predicted to look something like this. And it is this severe contortion in the upper level wind pattern that has enabled this most recent extreme warm wind event to occur.

This pattern is now in the process of injecting above-freezing air temperatures into Eastern Siberia. By tomorrow, the warm air mass will encounter the coastal regions of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas. There, it will push temperatures as high as 2.5 C (37 F) over zones that typically see readings in the -20s to -30s (Celsius). As a result, temperatures will range between 20 and 30 C (35 to 55 F) or more above average for many locations.



(Climate Reanalyzer has added a new color — white — for tracking extreme departures in temperature. In the positive anomaly column, we find departures hitting 30 C, or 54 F, above average for regions of East Siberia and the local Arctic Ocean.)

To be clear, these temperatures are highly abnormal. If a similar temperature departure happened in Gaithersburg, Maryland on December 8, it would produce 80 to 100 degree (F) readings. Of course, this anomaly is not happening in Gaithersburg. Due to a global warming related process called polar amplification in which the poles are more sensitive to alterations in rising greenhouse gas levels (due to fossil fuel and related emissions), extreme temperature anomalies tend to occur at the poles as rates of relative warming are 2-3 times faster in those regions. And the factors that we observe associated with this new Arctic warm wind event — powerful south-to-north meridional air flows coupled with extreme high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — are also evidence of a number of weird new atmospheric circulation patterns that can tend to pop up as polar amplification intensifies.

Warm Winds May Cause Unprecedented Back-to-Back Fall Sea Ice Melt

The Pacific side of the Arctic has already been gaining heat ahead of the oncoming warm wind event over the past few days. And what we have seen, as a result, is a pretty severe loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea during early December. To be very clear, Arctic sea ice should be advancing at this time of year. But what we see in the image below (provided by A-Team over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum) is advance followed by retreat as the warm wind event starts to ramp up.



(Ice refreeze in the Chukchi advances until it is rolled back by the most recent onrush of warm air flowing in from the Pacific. Image provided by A-Team at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Forum.)

Of course, the retreat seen above has occurred before the main force of warm southerly winds — due to hit the Arctic Ocean region by tomorrow. So the risks for continued losses in the Chukchi extend for at least the next few days. Losses there could be offset by large enough gains elsewhere to continue an overall seasonal freeze trend. But so far, with abnormal warmth also periodically building in over the near-Svalbard region and with Hudson Bay refreeze continuing to lag, that does not appear to be happening.

Looking at the larger monitors, we also find that, as happened during October and November, the pace of overall sea ice growth has stalled. According to JAXA, over the past 4 days, sea ice extent has only grown by 50,000 square kilometers. During a typical similar four day period for this time of year, growth would tend to average around 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. And with values at current record low levels, the inertial impetus for ice growth would be higher. That is, unless the climate state of the Arctic has radically changed — which appears to be the case.



(According to JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent has again hit a plateau when it should be freezing — this time at around 10 million square kilometers. As sea ice follows that line, record lows are again deepening — hitting near 750,000 square kilometers below previous lows for the day in 2006. Considering the fact that another major warming event is building into the Arctic Ocean, this plateau could again tip into melt as happened during the middle of November. Image source: JAXA.)

During mid November, a period of unprecedented warming produced an almost unprecedented period of fall melt. A similar November melt occurred during 2013. But the amount of melt then was smaller. And that melt did not occur at a time when Arctic sea ice values were at new record lows — as they were throughout the entire month during 2016. Similarly, during October, abnormally warm conditions produced an odd re-freeze plateau similar to the one we are now experiencing.

Given current conditions, there’s a risk that we could see a December melt event following the November melt event. For the amount of heat hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is predicted to fall far outside of normal temperature ranges. And, barring major refreeze on the Atlantic side, we are at a rather higher risk of seeing the present plateau in sea ice values carry on for a number of days.

Hmmmmmm. Who to believe.....


"Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead
By Jonathan Belles
Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT
weather.com



Siberia is known to be one of the coldest places on the planet, but exactly how cold and snowy it gets each year has big ramifications elsewhere on the globe.

In North America, a more snow-covered Russia means that colder air will have an easier time harvesting in Siberia and departing for our continent's heartland. Early in the calendar year, the air coming from Siberia can be cold enough to bring snow to even more southern reaches of the United States if the pattern sets up correctly."

Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead

Now old liar, what do you mean, 'who to believe'? Look at the map in the article. It show extreme warmth in the Arctic, and cold in both Siberia and North America. Jennifer Francis has explained exactly how this occurs in many lectures and they have been posted on this board many times. As you well know.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Arctic Air Temperatures are Set to Hit 35 to 55 F Above Average by Thursday — Out of Season Sea Ice Melt Possible, Again
“It looks like a triple whammy – a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic.” — NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice extent growth has once again slowed this week…” — Zack Labe

“Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week… over 25C warmer than average in parts.” — James Warner

****

This year, it’s a challenge to find a time when the Arctic Ocean has ever represented anything resembling normalcy. Record low sea ice extent values have occurred for more than 50 percent of days measured. And well above average temperatures have invaded the Arctic during winter, spring, and fall. With another huge wave of ridiculous warmth building up over eastern Siberia this week, the hits just keep on coming.

Major Warming Over Siberia, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas

The present big warm air invasion has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. There, a large high pressure system over the Bering Sea is facing off with a strong low moving up across Kamchatka. Running between the two is a powerful south-to-north wind pattern.



(A major warm wind invasion of the Arctic on Thursday is originating in the subtropical Pacific. A ridge in the Jet Stream extending all the way to the North Pole is pulling this big bulge of warm air north. As a result, extreme temperature departures and out of season sea ice melt for the impacted zones are likely. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As we can see in the image above, the flood of warm air has its origin around the 30 north latitude line. It flows directly over hundreds of miles of ocean, at times reaching a storm-force intensity near 70 mph. As it crosses into Siberia, the wind slows down. But it inexorably continues north, ever north — driven on by a serious pulse of atmospheric steam. By early Thursday, the leading edge of this warm air outburst from the Pacific side will have crossed the Pole and led to a flushing of Central Arctic air out into the Barents Sea and North Atlantic (you can view an animation of the predicted warm air pulse here).

This strong northward flood of warmth from the Pacific is running up under an extreme high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream that is bellowing out into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering and Chukchi seas. At its peak northward extent, the big Jet Stream wave is predicted to look something like this. And it is this severe contortion in the upper level wind pattern that has enabled this most recent extreme warm wind event to occur.

This pattern is now in the process of injecting above-freezing air temperatures into Eastern Siberia. By tomorrow, the warm air mass will encounter the coastal regions of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas. There, it will push temperatures as high as 2.5 C (37 F) over zones that typically see readings in the -20s to -30s (Celsius). As a result, temperatures will range between 20 and 30 C (35 to 55 F) or more above average for many locations.



(Climate Reanalyzer has added a new color — white — for tracking extreme departures in temperature. In the positive anomaly column, we find departures hitting 30 C, or 54 F, above average for regions of East Siberia and the local Arctic Ocean.)

To be clear, these temperatures are highly abnormal. If a similar temperature departure happened in Gaithersburg, Maryland on December 8, it would produce 80 to 100 degree (F) readings. Of course, this anomaly is not happening in Gaithersburg. Due to a global warming related process called polar amplification in which the poles are more sensitive to alterations in rising greenhouse gas levels (due to fossil fuel and related emissions), extreme temperature anomalies tend to occur at the poles as rates of relative warming are 2-3 times faster in those regions. And the factors that we observe associated with this new Arctic warm wind event — powerful south-to-north meridional air flows coupled with extreme high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — are also evidence of a number of weird new atmospheric circulation patterns that can tend to pop up as polar amplification intensifies.

Warm Winds May Cause Unprecedented Back-to-Back Fall Sea Ice Melt

The Pacific side of the Arctic has already been gaining heat ahead of the oncoming warm wind event over the past few days. And what we have seen, as a result, is a pretty severe loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea during early December. To be very clear, Arctic sea ice should be advancing at this time of year. But what we see in the image below (provided by A-Team over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum) is advance followed by retreat as the warm wind event starts to ramp up.



(Ice refreeze in the Chukchi advances until it is rolled back by the most recent onrush of warm air flowing in from the Pacific. Image provided by A-Team at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Forum.)

Of course, the retreat seen above has occurred before the main force of warm southerly winds — due to hit the Arctic Ocean region by tomorrow. So the risks for continued losses in the Chukchi extend for at least the next few days. Losses there could be offset by large enough gains elsewhere to continue an overall seasonal freeze trend. But so far, with abnormal warmth also periodically building in over the near-Svalbard region and with Hudson Bay refreeze continuing to lag, that does not appear to be happening.

Looking at the larger monitors, we also find that, as happened during October and November, the pace of overall sea ice growth has stalled. According to JAXA, over the past 4 days, sea ice extent has only grown by 50,000 square kilometers. During a typical similar four day period for this time of year, growth would tend to average around 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. And with values at current record low levels, the inertial impetus for ice growth would be higher. That is, unless the climate state of the Arctic has radically changed — which appears to be the case.



(According to JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent has again hit a plateau when it should be freezing — this time at around 10 million square kilometers. As sea ice follows that line, record lows are again deepening — hitting near 750,000 square kilometers below previous lows for the day in 2006. Considering the fact that another major warming event is building into the Arctic Ocean, this plateau could again tip into melt as happened during the middle of November. Image source: JAXA.)

During mid November, a period of unprecedented warming produced an almost unprecedented period of fall melt. A similar November melt occurred during 2013. But the amount of melt then was smaller. And that melt did not occur at a time when Arctic sea ice values were at new record lows — as they were throughout the entire month during 2016. Similarly, during October, abnormally warm conditions produced an odd re-freeze plateau similar to the one we are now experiencing.

Given current conditions, there’s a risk that we could see a December melt event following the November melt event. For the amount of heat hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is predicted to fall far outside of normal temperature ranges. And, barring major refreeze on the Atlantic side, we are at a rather higher risk of seeing the present plateau in sea ice values carry on for a number of days.

Hmmmmmm. Who to believe.....


"Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead
By Jonathan Belles
Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT
weather.com



Siberia is known to be one of the coldest places on the planet, but exactly how cold and snowy it gets each year has big ramifications elsewhere on the globe.

In North America, a more snow-covered Russia means that colder air will have an easier time harvesting in Siberia and departing for our continent's heartland. Early in the calendar year, the air coming from Siberia can be cold enough to bring snow to even more southern reaches of the United States if the pattern sets up correctly."

Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead

I'll go with the actual temps recorded on the few land based stations which say the warming is all a bunch of BS. Ever since the September failures of the sensors on two satellites they have been scrambling to realign their "MODELS" to reflect what is really happening..

The actual empirical ground stations and balloon data shows the warming is a fantasy. I would not put it past the Obama admin to be creating a deception in order to try and keep the AGW lie going.. It's way past time to clean out the left wing ideologist in NASA and NOAA.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Damn. You know, I think that 2017 is going to be an even more interesting year than 2016. And I do mean that in the Chinese sense of that statement.

What was so interesting about 2016? Could you please lay it on me?

EL NIñO Year.... That had natural variation warming due to it, which alarmists like Old Fraud are trying to attribute to AGW... Epic Fail..

 

[westwall]

Arctic Air Temperatures are Set to Hit 35 to 55 F Above Average by Thursday — Out of Season Sea Ice Melt Possible, Again
“It looks like a triple whammy – a warm ocean, a warm atmosphere, and a wind pattern all working against the ice in the Arctic.” — NSIDC director Mark Serreze.

“Unfortunately, Arctic sea ice extent growth has once again slowed this week…” — Zack Labe

“Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week… over 25C warmer than average in parts.” — James Warner

****

This year, it’s a challenge to find a time when the Arctic Ocean has ever represented anything resembling normalcy. Record low sea ice extent values have occurred for more than 50 percent of days measured. And well above average temperatures have invaded the Arctic during winter, spring, and fall. With another huge wave of ridiculous warmth building up over eastern Siberia this week, the hits just keep on coming.

Major Warming Over Siberia, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas

The present big warm air invasion has its origins in the Pacific Ocean. There, a large high pressure system over the Bering Sea is facing off with a strong low moving up across Kamchatka. Running between the two is a powerful south-to-north wind pattern.



(A major warm wind invasion of the Arctic on Thursday is originating in the subtropical Pacific. A ridge in the Jet Stream extending all the way to the North Pole is pulling this big bulge of warm air north. As a result, extreme temperature departures and out of season sea ice melt for the impacted zones are likely. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

As we can see in the image above, the flood of warm air has its origin around the 30 north latitude line. It flows directly over hundreds of miles of ocean, at times reaching a storm-force intensity near 70 mph. As it crosses into Siberia, the wind slows down. But it inexorably continues north, ever north — driven on by a serious pulse of atmospheric steam. By early Thursday, the leading edge of this warm air outburst from the Pacific side will have crossed the Pole and led to a flushing of Central Arctic air out into the Barents Sea and North Atlantic (you can view an animation of the predicted warm air pulse here).

This strong northward flood of warmth from the Pacific is running up under an extreme high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream that is bellowing out into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering and Chukchi seas. At its peak northward extent, the big Jet Stream wave is predicted to look something like this. And it is this severe contortion in the upper level wind pattern that has enabled this most recent extreme warm wind event to occur.

This pattern is now in the process of injecting above-freezing air temperatures into Eastern Siberia. By tomorrow, the warm air mass will encounter the coastal regions of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas. There, it will push temperatures as high as 2.5 C (37 F) over zones that typically see readings in the -20s to -30s (Celsius). As a result, temperatures will range between 20 and 30 C (35 to 55 F) or more above average for many locations.



(Climate Reanalyzer has added a new color — white — for tracking extreme departures in temperature. In the positive anomaly column, we find departures hitting 30 C, or 54 F, above average for regions of East Siberia and the local Arctic Ocean.)

To be clear, these temperatures are highly abnormal. If a similar temperature departure happened in Gaithersburg, Maryland on December 8, it would produce 80 to 100 degree (F) readings. Of course, this anomaly is not happening in Gaithersburg. Due to a global warming related process called polar amplification in which the poles are more sensitive to alterations in rising greenhouse gas levels (due to fossil fuel and related emissions), extreme temperature anomalies tend to occur at the poles as rates of relative warming are 2-3 times faster in those regions. And the factors that we observe associated with this new Arctic warm wind event — powerful south-to-north meridional air flows coupled with extreme high amplitude waves in the Jet Stream — are also evidence of a number of weird new atmospheric circulation patterns that can tend to pop up as polar amplification intensifies.

Warm Winds May Cause Unprecedented Back-to-Back Fall Sea Ice Melt

The Pacific side of the Arctic has already been gaining heat ahead of the oncoming warm wind event over the past few days. And what we have seen, as a result, is a pretty severe loss of ice in the Chukchi Sea during early December. To be very clear, Arctic sea ice should be advancing at this time of year. But what we see in the image below (provided by A-Team over at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum) is advance followed by retreat as the warm wind event starts to ramp up.



(Ice refreeze in the Chukchi advances until it is rolled back by the most recent onrush of warm air flowing in from the Pacific. Image provided by A-Team at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Forum.)

Of course, the retreat seen above has occurred before the main force of warm southerly winds — due to hit the Arctic Ocean region by tomorrow. So the risks for continued losses in the Chukchi extend for at least the next few days. Losses there could be offset by large enough gains elsewhere to continue an overall seasonal freeze trend. But so far, with abnormal warmth also periodically building in over the near-Svalbard region and with Hudson Bay refreeze continuing to lag, that does not appear to be happening.

Looking at the larger monitors, we also find that, as happened during October and November, the pace of overall sea ice growth has stalled. According to JAXA, over the past 4 days, sea ice extent has only grown by 50,000 square kilometers. During a typical similar four day period for this time of year, growth would tend to average around 400,000 to 500,000 square kilometers. And with values at current record low levels, the inertial impetus for ice growth would be higher. That is, unless the climate state of the Arctic has radically changed — which appears to be the case.



(According to JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent has again hit a plateau when it should be freezing — this time at around 10 million square kilometers. As sea ice follows that line, record lows are again deepening — hitting near 750,000 square kilometers below previous lows for the day in 2006. Considering the fact that another major warming event is building into the Arctic Ocean, this plateau could again tip into melt as happened during the middle of November. Image source: JAXA.)

During mid November, a period of unprecedented warming produced an almost unprecedented period of fall melt. A similar November melt occurred during 2013. But the amount of melt then was smaller. And that melt did not occur at a time when Arctic sea ice values were at new record lows — as they were throughout the entire month during 2016. Similarly, during October, abnormally warm conditions produced an odd re-freeze plateau similar to the one we are now experiencing.

Given current conditions, there’s a risk that we could see a December melt event following the November melt event. For the amount of heat hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic is predicted to fall far outside of normal temperature ranges. And, barring major refreeze on the Atlantic side, we are at a rather higher risk of seeing the present plateau in sea ice values carry on for a number of days.

Hmmmmmm. Who to believe.....


"Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead
By Jonathan Belles
Published Nov 4 2016 02:43 PM EDT
weather.com



Siberia is known to be one of the coldest places on the planet, but exactly how cold and snowy it gets each year has big ramifications elsewhere on the globe.

In North America, a more snow-covered Russia means that colder air will have an easier time harvesting in Siberia and departing for our continent's heartland. Early in the calendar year, the air coming from Siberia can be cold enough to bring snow to even more southern reaches of the United States if the pattern sets up correctly."

Siberia Is Being Clobbered With Snow Already, and That Could Mean a Harsher U.S. Winter Ahead

Now old liar, what do you mean, 'who to believe'? Look at the map in the article. It show extreme warmth in the Arctic, and cold in both Siberia and North America. Jennifer Francis has explained exactly how this occurs in many lectures and they have been posted on this board many times. As you well know.

No, it shows cute colors based on COMPUTER MODELS you halfwit. That's not factual data.

 

[Old Rocks]

Damn. You know, I think that 2017 is going to be an even more interesting year than 2016. And I do mean that in the Chinese sense of that statement.

What was so interesting about 2016? Could you please lay it on me?

EL NIñO Year.... That had natural variation warming due to it, which alarmists like Old Fraud are trying to attribute to AGW... Epic Fail..

LOL The dumb fuck that kept telling us that we were not into an El Nino for most of the duration of the El Nino is now trying to tell us about El Nino's? LOL

 

[Billy_Bob]

Damn. You know, I think that 2017 is going to be an even more interesting year than 2016. And I do mean that in the Chinese sense of that statement.

What was so interesting about 2016? Could you please lay it on me?

EL NIñO Year.... That had natural variation warming due to it, which alarmists like Old Fraud are trying to attribute to AGW... Epic Fail..

LOL The dumb fuck that kept telling us that we were not into an El Nino for most of the duration of the El Nino is now trying to tell us about El Nino's? LOL

Awww Poor little libtard..

You need your aroma therapy room? Hot Chocolate? or a diaper pin?

 

[ding]

No. The slopes are not very different. Use your eyes. But even if they were, that doesn't mean diddly squat. The reality is that we are still below the peak temperatures of the last 4 interglacial cycles. What part of this do you not understand?

Good God, again, you claim to be an engineer?

In the upper graph, on the Y axis, the distance for ten degrees is the same as the distance for one degree on the bottom graph. On the X axis, the distance on the upper graph for 200,000 years is only about 700 years on the bottom graph. So the slopes are very different if you put them on the same scales. It took, on the upper graph, a minimum of ten thousand years to warm from the bottom of the glacial, to the maximum warmth of the interglacial. That is less than a degree every thousand years.

So, on the bottom graph, put a dot at -1 degrees at 500. Now put a dot at 0 degrees at 1500. Draw a line between them. That is your slope for the glacial to interglacial warmup. Now look at that slope on the last 150 years. That is a fairly accurate comparison of the two slopes. Dingleberry, you are rapidly demonstrating that you intellect is in the same class as SSDD and Frankie boi.

So, you have a rise of about 1 degree in a thousand years, and you have a rise of over 1 degree in 150 years, and you are stating that you cannot see them on the lower graph? Man, no way you are an engineer. Yes, you can calculate the slope of a line, but you can also graph that line. And the line on that graph from -1.0 degrees at 500, to 0 degrees at 1500, a span of 1000 years, has a far lower slope than the line on that graph that shows the slope of the rise in the last 150 years. That you would argue with that demonstrates you are completely unable to read simple graphs.

I guess I am going to have to show you graphically what I am saying for you to understand.

LOL. So you are going to show me how one degree in a thousand years has the same slope as over one degree in one hundred and fifty years. This should be fun.

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL Playing stupid again. LOL

 

[ScienceRocks]

Cold air forced further southward with warmer than avg air over the polar regions

 

[Crick]

No, it shows cute colors based on COMPUTER MODELS you halfwit. That's not factual data.

Of course its a model. It's a forecast for regional temperatures within less than a week. You reject such things?

 

[ding]

LOL Playing stupid again. LOL

Nope. That's what you do.