ABC/WAPO: Trump surges to big lead, but...

[Statistikhengst]

...the devil is in the details.

Trump tops GOP field Clinton maintains large lead over Sanders - The Washington Post

-or-

Washington Post-ABC News poll July 16-19 2015 - The Washington Post

Conducted from July 16 to 19, 2015.
1,002 A, MoE = +/-3.5

GOP nomination (general population)
Trump 23
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +10

GOP nomination (RV only)
Trump 24
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +11


Sample size for Republican only voters and MoE = currently unknown. I will need to see the .pdf for internals.


Usually, for polls conducted over a number of days, the polling group is spread out pretty evenly. For instance, a polling group of, say, 900, polled over 3 days would mean roughly 300 interviews per day. So far, so good.

Then, it's a matter of WHEN the calls were made. Donald Trump's big bomb about John McCain was on July 18th, in the morning. If the calls were made in the morning, I bet that most people had no idea what was going on yet, so there is a good chance that only the last day of polling, the 19th, would be the day where some or most respondents knew what was going on. And since this poll was conducted over 4 days, it may mean that only 25% of this poll reflects anything about Don Trumps comments over John McCain. Who knows, maybe Trump was at 28% on the aggregate, until the responses from Sunday came in, who knows for sure.

But indeed, Trump is now leading in a major poll by a fully accredited pollster, and by a heavy margin.

All I am saying is: don't try to read too many tea-leaves from Ames, Iowa, into this poll.

Polls conducted starting today, where we will likely see the results by the end of the week, will likely more accurately reflect the "Trumpian Neutron Bomb Effect".

On the DEM side, it's

DEM NOMINATION (general population)
Clinton 62
Sanders 14
Biden 14
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +48.


DEM NOMINATION (RV only)
Clinton 68
Sanders 16
Biden 5
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +52



And now, the piece de resistance:

Clinton 51 / Bush 41 (general population) - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton 50 / Bush 44 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +6

Clinton 47 / Bush 29 / Trump 19 (general population) - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton 46 / Bush 30 / Trump 20 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +16


This is interesting: under the general population (which will never be the case in an election), it's Clinton +10 over Jeb!, +6 with just RV.

But in a potential three-way with Donald Trump,ala Ross Perot 1992, the bottom falls out for the GOP and the margins are almost identical: Clinton +18 (general population), Clinton +16 (RV).


Once again, it's the Trumpian Divide.

 

[Toro]

lol

 

[LordBrownTrout]

...the devil is in the details.

Trump tops GOP field Clinton maintains large lead over Sanders - The Washington Post

-or-

Washington Post-ABC News poll July 16-19 2015 - The Washington Post

Conducted from July 16 to 19, 2015.
1,002 A, MoE = +/-3.5

GOP nomination (general population)
Trump 23
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +10

GOP nomination (RV only)
Trump 24
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +11


Sample size for Republican only voters and MoE = currently unknown. I will need to see the .pdf for internals.


Usually, for polls conducted over a number of days, the polling group is spread out pretty evenly. For instance, a polling group of, say, 900, polled over 3 days would mean roughly 300 interviews per day. So far, so good.

Then, it's a matter of WHEN the calls were made. Donald Trump's big bomb about John McCain was on July 18th, in the morning. If the calls were made in the morning, I bet that most people had no idea what was going on yet, so there is a good chance that only the last day of polling, the 19th, would be the day where some or most respondents knew what was going on. And since this poll was conducted over 4 days, it may mean that only 25% of this poll reflects anything about Don Trumps comments over John McCain. Who knows, maybe Trump was at 28% on the aggregate, until the responses from Sunday came in, who knows for sure.

But indeed, Trump is now leading in a major poll by a fully accredited pollster, and by a heavy margin.

All I am saying is: don't try to read too many tea-leaves from Ames, Iowa, into this poll.

Polls conducted starting today, where we will likely see the results by the end of the week, will likely more accurately reflect the "Trumpian Neutron Bomb Effect".

On the DEM side, it's

DEM NOMINATION (general population)
Clinton 62
Sanders 14
Biden 14
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +48.


DEM NOMINATION (RV only)
Clinton 68
Sanders 16
Biden 5
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +52



And now, the piece de resistance:

Clinton 51 / Bush 41 (general population) - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton 50 / Bush 44 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +6

Clinton 47 / Bush 29 / Trump 19 (general population) - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton 46 / Bush 30 / Trump 20 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +16


This is interesting: under the general population (which will never be the case in an election), it's Clinton +10 over Jeb!, +6 with just RV.

But in a potential three-way with Donald Trump,ala Ross Perot 1992, the bottom falls out for the GOP and the margins are almost identical: Clinton +18 (general population), Clinton +16 (RV).


Once again, it's the Trumpian Divide.

You wouldn't love to see a trump/hilary debate?

 

[Statistikhengst]

...the devil is in the details.

Trump tops GOP field Clinton maintains large lead over Sanders - The Washington Post

-or-

Washington Post-ABC News poll July 16-19 2015 - The Washington Post

Conducted from July 16 to 19, 2015.
1,002 A, MoE = +/-3.5

GOP nomination (general population)
Trump 23
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +10

GOP nomination (RV only)
Trump 24
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +11


Sample size for Republican only voters and MoE = currently unknown. I will need to see the .pdf for internals.


Usually, for polls conducted over a number of days, the polling group is spread out pretty evenly. For instance, a polling group of, say, 900, polled over 3 days would mean roughly 300 interviews per day. So far, so good.

Then, it's a matter of WHEN the calls were made. Donald Trump's big bomb about John McCain was on July 18th, in the morning. If the calls were made in the morning, I bet that most people had no idea what was going on yet, so there is a good chance that only the last day of polling, the 19th, would be the day where some or most respondents knew what was going on. And since this poll was conducted over 4 days, it may mean that only 25% of this poll reflects anything about Don Trumps comments over John McCain. Who knows, maybe Trump was at 28% on the aggregate, until the responses from Sunday came in, who knows for sure.

But indeed, Trump is now leading in a major poll by a fully accredited pollster, and by a heavy margin.

All I am saying is: don't try to read too many tea-leaves from Ames, Iowa, into this poll.

Polls conducted starting today, where we will likely see the results by the end of the week, will likely more accurately reflect the "Trumpian Neutron Bomb Effect".

On the DEM side, it's

DEM NOMINATION (general population)
Clinton 62
Sanders 14
Biden 14
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +48.


DEM NOMINATION (RV only)
Clinton 68
Sanders 16
Biden 5
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +52



And now, the piece de resistance:

Clinton 51 / Bush 41 (general population) - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton 50 / Bush 44 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +6

Clinton 47 / Bush 29 / Trump 19 (general population) - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton 46 / Bush 30 / Trump 20 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +16


This is interesting: under the general population (which will never be the case in an election), it's Clinton +10 over Jeb!, +6 with just RV.

But in a potential three-way with Donald Trump,ala Ross Perot 1992, the bottom falls out for the GOP and the margins are almost identical: Clinton +18 (general population), Clinton +16 (RV).


Once again, it's the Trumpian Divide.

You wouldn't love to see a trump/hilary debate?

Oh, I would relish it!

 

[Statistikhengst]

This Trumpian Divide stuff is making it's way into the German media, and I mean, the top of the German media:

Pr sidentschaftskandidat der Republikaner P belnder Trump f hrt Umfragen an tagesschau.de

You can go to the link and test your German skills, but the headline reads:

"Trump is leading in polls"

"In the Republican Primary-battle, Billionaire Donald Trump has worked his way to the top and in the process passed-up Jeb Bush and others. Above all others, T´the Democrats and Hillary Clinton are profiting from the clashes within the Republican Party"


Here's a good text:

"Vom parteiinternen Streit der Republikaner profitiert derzeit vor allem Hillary Clinton. Sie führt das Bewerberfeld der Demokraten mit großem Vorsprung an."

At the current time, Hillary Clinton is profiting from the internal party battles of the Republicans. She is leading the Democratic field by a large margin.

 

[Statistikhengst]

1 correction and one important side note.

This:

"DEM NOMINATION (RV only)
Clinton 68
Sanders 16
Biden 5
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +52"

Should read as this:

DEM NOMINATION (RV only)
Clinton 63
Sanders 14
Biden 12
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +49

The other figures are also at the poll, also for RV, but for "2nd choice" polling, which is also quite important, because in 2nd choice polling, Clinton does even better. This is a pretty sure sign that the Democrats have long made-up their minds. Sorry for the typographical error, the WAPO poll is sometimes confusing to read. I'm glad I went over all the numbers again.


Important side note:

Washington Post-ABC News poll July 16-19 2015 - The Washington Post

The Clinton / Bush and Clinton / Bush / Trump matchups are questions 15 and 16 in the poll (p. 8 of the document). Questions 17-24 are currently embargoed for later release (noted at the top of p. 9).

I suspect that those 8 questions are also GE matchups and we will be getting the results soon enough. Whether this means 8 more GOP candidates vs. Hillary or a number of other GOP candidates, also pitted against Donald Trump as a potential Independent candidate remains to be seen. But since he was already polled as an Independent, I suspect very strongly that he is also one of the one-on-one matchups to be released soon, and those are the numbers we are most looking for, because I bet they will be very, very tellling.

Also, a historical note: this poll is the first poll for 2016 to release a three-way-race matchup, and I bet it won't be the last one. Also interesting to note is that Trump's numbers in a three way look a lot like Perot's from 1992, but the Democrat is doing much better this time around. There was never a national poll showing Bill Clinton ahead of Bush 41 by 15 or more in a three-way matchup. Never.

I must admit, were this to become a Clinton vs. Bush vs. super rich Billionaire with a big mouth contest, it would eerily look like 1992.....

 

[Claudette]

...the devil is in the details.

Trump tops GOP field Clinton maintains large lead over Sanders - The Washington Post

-or-

Washington Post-ABC News poll July 16-19 2015 - The Washington Post

Conducted from July 16 to 19, 2015.
1,002 A, MoE = +/-3.5

GOP nomination (general population)
Trump 23
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +10

GOP nomination (RV only)
Trump 24
Walker 13
Bush, Jeb 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1

Margin: Trump +11


Sample size for Republican only voters and MoE = currently unknown. I will need to see the .pdf for internals.


Usually, for polls conducted over a number of days, the polling group is spread out pretty evenly. For instance, a polling group of, say, 900, polled over 3 days would mean roughly 300 interviews per day. So far, so good.

Then, it's a matter of WHEN the calls were made. Donald Trump's big bomb about John McCain was on July 18th, in the morning. If the calls were made in the morning, I bet that most people had no idea what was going on yet, so there is a good chance that only the last day of polling, the 19th, would be the day where some or most respondents knew what was going on. And since this poll was conducted over 4 days, it may mean that only 25% of this poll reflects anything about Don Trumps comments over John McCain. Who knows, maybe Trump was at 28% on the aggregate, until the responses from Sunday came in, who knows for sure.

But indeed, Trump is now leading in a major poll by a fully accredited pollster, and by a heavy margin.

All I am saying is: don't try to read too many tea-leaves from Ames, Iowa, into this poll.

Polls conducted starting today, where we will likely see the results by the end of the week, will likely more accurately reflect the "Trumpian Neutron Bomb Effect".

On the DEM side, it's

DEM NOMINATION (general population)
Clinton 62
Sanders 14
Biden 14
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +48.


DEM NOMINATION (RV only)
Clinton 68
Sanders 16
Biden 5
Webb 2
Chafee 1
O'Malley 1

Margin: Clinton +52



And now, the piece de resistance:

Clinton 51 / Bush 41 (general population) - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton 50 / Bush 44 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +6

Clinton 47 / Bush 29 / Trump 19 (general population) - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton 46 / Bush 30 / Trump 20 (RV only) - margin: Clinton +16


This is interesting: under the general population (which will never be the case in an election), it's Clinton +10 over Jeb!, +6 with just RV.

But in a potential three-way with Donald Trump,ala Ross Perot 1992, the bottom falls out for the GOP and the margins are almost identical: Clinton +18 (general population), Clinton +16 (RV).


Once again, it's the Trumpian Divide.

Guess all those polled like what he had to say.

We should all get ready for all those Trump threads to come while all those supporting "What difference does it make" Clinton deal with that eleven point lead. LOL

Should be fun.

 

[Politico]

The details are in reality. Trump won't win shit.