50-50 Obama does not run in 2012

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JRK, Sep 30, 2011.

  1. JRK
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    JRK Senior Member

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    Victory in Iraq, troops 100% gone
    failed stimulus
    5-6 million fewer jobs than in 2008
    Gitmo 7-24s
    Obama-care gone? (if so that to me makes it 75-25)
    Huge deficit with no return
    loosing congress probably 100%
    approval rating <40%

    I was not old enough to know how big a surprise LBJ was
    Libs this is your reality
     
  2. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    1968 this is not.
     
  3. VaYank5150
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    VaYank5150 Gold Member

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    I see that the reality that is the weak field of GOP candidates has finally set in for you. HOPING Obama will not run, will not make it so.
     
  4. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    I don't see how he doesn't. There is no one in the Democratic Party to pick up the banner if he drops it right now. Not HIllary, she'd look like an ingrate if she challenged him.

    The thing is, the reason why it is usually so difficult to vote out incumbants is that human nature is such that people are loathe to admit they made a mistake. 69 million people voted for Obama last time, compared to 57 million who voted for McCain. In order to make it competitive, you have to get six million of those people to change sides or stay home, while keeping all of your guys.

    And the REpublicans seem intent on nominating a guy a lot of Republicans won't vote for either because of his religion or the fact he's a closet liberal.
     
  5. JRK
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    JRK Senior Member

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    Young man
    Obama has an approval rating below 40%
    I agree the GOP field is weak compared to RR back in the day
    do you really think this country wants 4 more years of this?
    Do you think Obama thinks he can get re elected with the UE rate in the real world closer o 20 than 10?
     
  6. JRK
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    JRK Senior Member

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    Your thread is somewhat accurate
    it really comes down to Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
    the 6 million vote swing could happen in Florida, NY and California
    But I give you kudos for your thread
     
  7. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    I don't think you are going to see a situation like 2000 again. I think that if you have a situation like that, no one is going to say, "Screw the voters, I'm going for our guy!" If it comes down to the EC, Obama already has an obscene advantage because he has California, NY and IL locked up. All the GOP can count on is Texas. (Unless Romney manages to tick off hispanics!) Florida, Ohio and PA are the wild cards. PA less so if the GOP legislature gets it way and makes the allocation proportional.

    It seems to me that the GOP had a lot of good candidates- Huckabee, Daniels, Pawlenty, Barbour - and managed to drive them off. So now we are stuck with Romney and Perry. Seriously?
     
  8. techieny
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    techieny Conservative Supporting Member

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    Thanks for the reality check :clap2:
     
  9. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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    Doesn't matter...He's a 100% narcissist, who doesn't believe any of his blunders are his fault.

    All you need to do is re-elect him, burn through another $3-$5 trillion, and everything will be just peachy! :rolleyes:
     
  10. ladyliberal
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    ladyliberal Progressive Princess

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    I don't quite understand the text of your post, but I gather you're predicting with 50% certainty that Obama won't run for president in 2012. He is already running, he declared his candidacy months ago: President Obama announces reelection bid - The Washington Post.

    And I'm quite sure he will continue to run, and he will be the Democratic candidate on election day. Intrade gives him about 93% chance of being the nominee, and I think that's a little low. I think you're allowing your opinion of Obama to color your predictions.

    And for what it's worth, there' substantial evidence that LBJ's decision not to run was motivated in part by health reasons (he found the Presidency stressful, and died in retirement almost exactly four years after he left office). Obama of course does not seem to have any similar problems. He also has much better prospects of reelection than LBJ did.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2011

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