CDZ 2014 Mid-Term Election returns thread

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by Statistikhengst, Nov 3, 2014.

  1. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    T-minus 24 hours until most Americans start voting.

    First, poll-closing times:

    [​IMG]

    Second, a look at states that have already done early voting (17.1 million ballots cast as of the weekend):

    View attachment 33751

    The map, at this site, is clickable, should you want to see more information.

    Third, links for the more interesting marquee races (expected "barn-burners" are in GREEN).

    Most all links are to Politico, which takes it's numbers from AP, anyway.
    Of all the online news sites, Politico was the quickest of all at getting the latest numbers from the AP out there, per district, even per county.


    At 7:00 PM, EDT, the polls close in:

    Florida (Gubernatorial) (most of the state):

    2014 Florida Election Watch - Home Page

    Florida Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    (The Gubernatorial in FL will be closely watched)

    Georgia (Senatorial, Gubernatorial):

    Georgia Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (absolute barnburner, likely runoff)

    Georgia Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (Georgia Gubernatorial)

    Kentucky:

    KY - Election Results
    (right now, this page shows the Primary results, tomorrow it should be cleared for the GE results)

    Kentucky Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (I expect this race to be non-competitive, but the margin will be interesting)

    Virginia:

    Election Results Virginia Department of Elections

    Virginia Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (This is non-competitive Senatorial race, but the margin may be interesting to watch)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    At 07:30 PM, the polls close in:

    West Virginia:

    West Virginia Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (This is non-competitive Senatorial race, but the margin may be interesting to watch)

    WV SOS - Elections - Election Results - Online Data Services
    (this site is currently still set for the primaries, should be reset for the GE tomorrow)

    The HOR race for WV-03 will be watched, where Democratic incumbent Nick Rahall is in danger of being unseated:

    West Virginia Election Results 2014 House Map by District Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    North Carolina:

    North Carolina Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (absolute barnburner!)

    Ohio:

    Ohio Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (The Ohio Gubernatorial is non-competitive, in fact, it should be a GOP blowout election, but the margin may be interesting to watch)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    At 8:00 PM, EDT, the polls close in:

    New Hampshire:


    New Hampshire Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (absolute barnburner!)

    New Hampshire Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (NH Gubernatorial, not expected to be competitive, but the margin could be interesting)


    Connecticut (Gubernatorial):

    Connecticut Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO


    Illinois (Gubernatorial):

    Illinois Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO


    Kansas: (most all polls close at 8PM EDT, the rest close at 9PM EDT)

    Kansas Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (Senatorial - absolute barnburner!)

    Kansas Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (Gubernatorial)

    Massachusetts (Gubernatorial):

    Massachusetts Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Polls closing at 8:30 PM EDT:

    Arkansas:


    Arkansas Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (very likely the first toppling of a Democratic incumbent on the ballot)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Polls closing at 9:00 PM EDT:


    Colorado: xxx

    Colorado Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (Senatorial - absolute barnburner!))

    Colorado Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (Gubernatorial)

    Michigan (Gubernatorial):

    Michigan Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    Louisiana:

    Louisiana Election Results 2014 Senate Map by Parish Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (there are EIGHT candidates on the senatorial jungle-primary ballot)

    South Dakota:

    South Dakota Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    Arizona (Gubernatorial):

    Arizona Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    The gubernatorial race is non-competitive, BUT Arizona is pretty much the only state in the Union where Republican voter registration has spiked considerably over just six weeks, from the middle of September until now. So, the margin may be VERY interesting to watch.


    Wisconsin (Gubernatorial):

    Wisconsin Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (absolute barnburner!)


    Nebraska (NE-02):

    This race is a little like the canary in the coal-mine: this is probably the most endangered Republican incumbent in the house and the numbers that come from this race in NE-02 (Omaha) can give a good indicator of how the night will go for the GOP overall in the HOR:

    Nebraska Election Results 2014 House Map by District Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    Terry Lee in NE-02 is pretty much the electoral pendant (mirror-image) to Nick Rahall in WV-03.

    New York (NY-01, NY-11, NY-18, NY-24):

    New York Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (The gubernatorial is non-competitive, in fact, it should be a DEM blowout election, but the margin may be interesting)

    New York Election Results 2014 House Map by District Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    In the HOR, Michael Grimm is an endangered Republican, while the other three seats, including Sean Maloney, are endangered Democrats. It could end up being a bittersweet night for the DEMS in NY.

    Polls closing at 10 PM EDT:

    All eyes will be on IOWA, IOWA, IOWA!:


    Iowa Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    (expect hours of county by county dissection of the race in this state, with pundits all proclaiming it's meaning for 2016...)

    UTAH (UT-04):

    Utah Election Results 2014 House Map by District Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    UT-04 is an open-race this time and Mia Love (R), who narrowly lost last time, is favored to narrowly win this time. This is not really a canary in a coal mine for the GOP, but special in that Mia Love is a Black Republican, perhaps with a very bright political future ahead of her. Though I am a Democrat, I would greet seeing Mia Love in the HOR and would be interested to see what she would do as a Representative.

    Polls closing at 11 PM EDT:

    Idaho (Gubernatorial):

    Idaho Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    Republican incumbent Butch Otter is now favored to win re-election, but it really is a six-man race and it is no joke when I say that one candidate is named "pro life"- that is that person's LEGAL name. This will be an underwhelming Republican win, but the history books will record that Democrat Balukoff, a very left progressive, campaigned extremely hard and hit pretty much every town and hamlet in the state. That alone is worth noting.

    Oregon:

    Oregon Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    Democratic incumbent Merkley is expected to retain his seat, but the margin will be interesting as polling in 2008, 2010 and 2012 was decidedly off to the Right in this state.

    In 2012, the end-polling aggregate:

    Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.

    showed Obama up by +6. In reality, he won by +12.09% and the state was called for him within 15 minutes of poll closing times. So, the margin as compared to current polling in Oregon:

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Oregon Senate - Wehby vs. Merkley

    currently shows Merkley +17.3.

    Let's see what happens this time around. It is entirely possible that this time around, the polls were off somewhat to the LEFT. Wait and see.

    California:

    California Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (the Gubernatorial is not considered to be competitive, but the margin WILL be interesting).

    In the HOR:

    California Election Results 2014 House Map by District Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    There are a number of House races with endangered incumbents, in CA-07, CA-26 and CA-52.

    But there is an open seat in CA-31 that the Democrats hope to pick up, with Democrat Pete Aguilar, who should actually win it with a decent margin.

    Hawaii:

    This may be a sleeper that becomes important.

    Hawaii Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (gubernatorial)

    The Hawaii Gubernatorial is a three-man race between Democrat David Ige, Republican Duke Aiona and Independent Mufi Hanneman:

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Hawaii Governor - Aiona vs. Ige vs. Hannemann

    Currently: Ige (D) +12.8, in a state the Obama won by more than +40 two times in a row.


    At 01:00 AM on November 5th (EDT), the polls close in:

    Alaska:

    Alaska Election Results 2014 Senate Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (Barnburner between Democratic incumbent Mark Begich and Republican challenger Dan Sullivan)

    Alaska Election Results 2014 Governor Map by County Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO
    (the gubernatorial is close, but likely to be an unaffiliated fusion-ticket upset over Republican incumbent Sean Parnell)

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Alaska Governor - Parnell vs. Walker

    Bill Walker (I) is ahead by +1.7, in a four man race where Parnell will also not get Libertarian votes as a true Libertarian is on the ballot.

    It is entirely possible that as of 1 AM, the GOP is at 50 in the Senate and waiting on results from Alaska.

    Sensing that their state could really make a difference in the mid-terms, I wager that voter turnout in this state will be disproportionately high in comparison to many other states.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Now, there are some other races that are likely very good news for one side or the other, like Pennsylvania for the Democrats and and both races in South Carolina for the Republicans, but they are not really where the action is this time around.

    Here the general links at POLITICO for the three categories:

    Senate:

    2014 Election Results Senate Map by State Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    Governorships:

    Governor Election Results 2014 Map by State Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO

    US House of Representatives:

    House Election Results 2014 Map by State Live Midterm Voting Updates - POLITICO


    Hope that information helps.

    I will be on starting at about 8:30 PM EDT to begin live-blogging the election. That will be 02:30 AM where I live, but I really need some sleep in-between.

    I am recording the election returns on CNN and CNBC. Where I live, I don't get FOX on TV. If anyone out there is planning to record the mid-terms on FOX, I would love to get a copy. Regardless of one's feelings about FOX's coverage and commentary on election, the actual data that FOX presented on election night 2012, and above all else, timeliness thereof, was excellent. If anyone is indeed recording FOX for posterity, please PM me. Thanks.
     
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  2. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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  3. jon_berzerk
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    jon_berzerk Gold Member

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  4. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Nope. I am really pressed for time and have, to be honest, paid less attention to the Governor's races, but in most cases the races look pretty cut and dried. The DEMS really fucked up in Ohio and the Kasich will landslide to re-election. The GOP has really screwed up in Pennsylvania and Wolf (D) will cruise to an easy win there. It looks like KS, MI, CO and AK are the most interesting gubernatorial races out there, with wins for the opposition certainly representing a form of tectonic shift within that state.

    I bet that none of us saw a Democrat winning in Kansas as ever being possible, and yet, Davis looks like he is going to win comfortably there.A GOP win in MI may or may not have long-reaching effects for that state. The Alaska race I personally find to be VERY interesting, for it seems to fly in the face of all they we think we know about the Alaskan electoral landscape.

    You have any predictions?
     
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    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
  5. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Everyone here is invited to share information about the returns as they come in, while I am live-blogging it, but I would appreciate it we could avoid making this a bitching thread over specific candidates. The voters will speak tomorrow and recording the results and watching the trends is about as cut-and-dried as it can get.

    And I think we should prepare ourselves for a very, very long night and the strong possibility that control of the Senate may not be decided officially for a number of days or even weeks.

    Still, I give the GOP more than a 90% chance of getting to at least 51 seats without an independent caucusing with them. It just may take time (including counting absentee ballots and/or recounts) to get there.

    Here a number of people I hope will be joining this thread tomorrow:

    cereal_killer
    Derideo_Te
    Mertex
    Pogo
    Nyvin
    AceRothstein
    CrusaderFrank
    Wolfsister77
    Bloodrock44
    Delta4Embassy
    Sallow
    Barb
    editec
    kiwiman127
    Jroc
    guno
    Machaut
    Political Junky
    PoliticalChic
    Flopper
    Grandma
    TheOldSchool
    MarcATL
    Nosmo King
    rightwinger
    daws101
    JakeStarkey
    candycorn
    bendog
    C_Clayton_Jones
    Mad_Cabbie
    Jughead
    Dad2three
    aaronleland
    WelfareQueen
    AVG-JOE
    jon_berzerk
    oldfart
    Old Rocks
    boedicca
    william the wie
    JoeB131
    Truman123
    Disir
    BlackSand
    Dot Com
    Harry Dresden
    Papageorgio
    Luddly Neddite
    Coyote
    saveliberty
    Noomi
    Ringel05
    Foxfyre
    Sherry
    mudwhistle

    In fact, it would be great were you folks to live blog the results with me. Check out the links in the OP for more details.

    Till then,

    Stat
     
  6. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    There are a number of other congressional districts out there that may or may not also be "canaries in the mine", but there is an interesting one I forgot in the OP:

    Arkansas-04 and Arkansas-02

    The latest yougov poll has it as a one point race in both cases. Could maybe be interesting to watch. Wait and see.

    House races full results

    Caveat to the poll for AR-04 is that yougov shows 28% undecided, which is practically impossible as a statistic one day before an election. The CD is a red default CD, so I assume that Bruce Westerman (R) will win.


    AR-04 is the CD where Tom Cotton is giving up his day-job as a Representative to run for the Senate:

    Arkansas s 4th congressional district - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

    It's a CD that Mitt Romney won by a whopping +28 points.

    AR-02 (Little Rock) is an open race due to a Republican retirement. It has had a long tradition of Democratic representatives, even during the Bush years, so it could be that the default mode for this CD, in relation to AR-04, is Democratic. Wait and see. Here, according to the poll, are only 19% undecided - still WAY too many for one day before the election, which is when the poll came out.

    I vill bee keeping mah Ayes on zhees Rääses!!!.... :D
     
  7. Judicial review
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    Judicial review BANNED

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    I will be going to bed at 7 est and having the best sleep since george w bush was president. I already know what will happen. The process of eliminating liberals and their ideology begin today. Enjoy it guys! Youll remember this for the rest of your lives. :)
     
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  8. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Overall, the yougov poll is showing the following CD races as a spread of 4 points or less:

    AR-02 R+1
    AR-04 R+1
    AZ-01 TIE
    AZ-02 D+1
    CA-24 D+2
    CA-26 D+3
    CA-36 D+4
    CO-06 D+3
    FL-02 R+2
    FL-26 D+1
    GA-12 D+4
    IA-03 TIE
    IL-02 R+1
    MA-06 D+4
    ME-02 D+3 (always a competitive CD in presidential elections)
    MI-01 R+2
    MN-07 D+2
    (MN-08 D+5)
    NE-02 R+3 (other polls show the DEM decidedly ahead here, likely D pick-up)
    NH-01 R+3
    NH-02 D+3
    NJ-03 R+1
    (NY-01 R+5)
    NY-11 R+4
    (NY-21 R+5)

    Not one single OH CD race is even remotely competitive, all in the range from +18 to +64!!

    TX-23 D+1
    VA-04 TIE
    WV-02 R+1
    (WV-03 R+5) (Nick Rahall, D-inc, the most endangered D incumbent of this cycle)

    I don't have time to research which of those races are races where the opposition party is currently leading and remember, this is just one poll, but it may give some clues, that's all.

    House races full results
     
  9. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    This is not what this thread is about. It's only about recording returns, pretty cut and dried stuff. Are you incapable of actually being able to read an OP and and corollary material?

    Wow.
     
  10. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    The math wizards at KOS (a left leaning site) have published county benchmarks for key states for today's election. They do this on the eve of every election.

    Daily Kos Elections 2014 county benchmarks

    Now, it's from the perspective of the Left, but people on the Right can use it just as much to see how their candidate is doing statewide (Senatorial, Gubernatorial, AG races).

    For instance, and I quote:

    "County benchmarks have become a delightful Election Day tradition at Daily Kos Elections, and here's your 2014 installment. If you're not familiar with the concept, you might be wondering why you would want to look at county-level returns, considering how hard it is just to keep track of what's happening at the statewide level across the full range of states. The reason is, votes don't come in uniformly across the state level. Different counties may report at different rates, some coming in sooner than others, and different counties can be much bluer and redder than the state average. A particularly large and particularly liberal or conservative county that reports earlier in the process might skew the overall chances in the state, and here are the tools you'll need to "unskew" the results as they come in.

    The "what we need" column shows what the Democratic candidate in each race needs to be getting in each county to be on track to hit 50 percent overall, statewide. To avoid information overload, we're only looking at the counties that provide more than 2 percent of a state's total votes; the precise amount you can see in the "percent of 2012 statewide vote" column.

    We're using the 2012 presidential results as the baseline here, which doesn't always exactly translate to Senate or gubernatorial results, though, as different candidates may have pockets of strength in particular areas of the state. Take Kay Hagan, for instance; she's from Greensboro, in Guilford County, North Carolina, where she was a state Senator before getting promoted. She may overperform distinctly in Guilford County, so keep that in mind when looking at that county's results, but also, that would also allow her to underperform a tiny bit in the other parts of the state."

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Now, this is pretty smart stuff, stuff I also did in analysing the 2008 and 2012 elections. The smart people on Mitt Romney's math team did this stuff, too, and set benchmarks to get their candidate to in key states like Ohio and Colorado in the last Presidential election. In Ohio, they set the benchmark of retaking Hamilton County (Cincy), which they did not succeed at, and to get Obama under 64% in Cuyahoga County (he won with 69% in '08 and with 70% in '12). In Colorado, Team Romney worked very, very hard to get the DEM margin down in Denver: their goal was Obama at 60%. He won with 74% in '08 and with 72% in '12.

    So, if you are watching a particularly close race and go to the statewide website for that race, many BOE's across the country provide either county tables or an interactive map to see what's going on. And Politico has interactive maps for every single CD.

    We have seen an interesting phenomenon happen in Virginia three times in a row now: in 2008, 2012 and 2013, the night started out with the Republican candidate way ahead, it appeared, and a slew of counties appeared ruby red on electoral maps all over the land. But, those counties, though geographically large in size, accounted for only a small fraction of the overall statewide population, whereas the counties in NOVA (Northern Virginia) account for almost the majority of the state and are also Democratic bedrock counties, at least the large cities. It's the collar counties around major metropolises that are usually more "swingy" - and in Virginia the NOVA counties tend to call in their results late. The logic behind this is obvious. There is a difference between a polling place in a small rural county where maybe all of 100 people vote throughout the entire day, and a polling place in a huge city where maybe 8,000 may cast their votes that day, starting after their workshift. And since every polling station has poll-workers from both parties working side-by-side of each other, the votes are counted accurately. It just takes longer because there are SO MANY MORE VOTES TO COUNT IN THE FIRST PLACE. At the end of the night, the Democrat won, in spite of it looking for hours on end that the Republican was ahead.

    So, whether you are from the Right or the Left is totally irrelevant, using the KOS benchmarks page to see where things stand as the night progresses is not a bad idea at all. I've been searching for a good RW website that puts out it's benchmarks as well, but to no avail as of yet. If anyone knows of such a site, either post it or send me a hat-tip and I will gladly include it.

    Hope this information helps.
     

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