Statistikhengst
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Senate poll crunching report comes out tomorrow - t-minus 5 weeks.
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Well, since most of the people the the GOP puts up for governor end up in the pen a short time later for fraud, why on earth would we want a Republican representing us?
Perhaps because you've aged out on Obamacare and have to find a job so you can buy your mandatory health insurance?
.HB: Perhaps because you've aged out on Obamacare and have to find a job so you can buy your mandatory health insurance?
Well, since most of the people the the GOP puts up for governor end up in the pen a short time later for fraud, why on earth would we want a Republican representing us?
Perhaps because you've aged out on Obamacare and have to find a job so you can buy your mandatory health insurance?
.HB: Perhaps because you've aged out on Obamacare and have to find a job so you can buy your mandatory health insurance?
having age out of the ACA would mean their responsibilities for the national health care law have been fulfilled, perhaps you are thinking of retarded republicans that shirked their duty and are now being audited by the IRS ... in your case, getting a 2nd job would indeed be a prudent decision.
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Well, since most of the people the the GOP puts up for governor end up in the pen a short time later for fraud, why on earth would we want a Republican representing us?
Perhaps because you've aged out on Obamacare and have to find a job so you can buy your mandatory health insurance?
.HB: Perhaps because you've aged out on Obamacare and have to find a job so you can buy your mandatory health insurance?
having age out of the ACA would mean their responsibilities for the national health care law have been fulfilled, perhaps you are thinking of retarded republicans that shirked their duty and are now being audited by the IRS ... in your case, getting a 2nd job would indeed be a prudent decision.
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Your confusion is easy to understand.
"Age out" in context means to have reached age 26 and no longer federally counted as an infant. Therefore no longer able to piggy-back on parents health insurance.
When you start getting close to 26 let's have this conversation again, OK?
"Age out" in context means to have reached age 26 and no longer federally counted as an infant. Therefore no longer able to piggy-back on parents health insurance.
I see Ernst is way up now. Alaska seems to be heading towards GOP as does Colorado in latest polls. How much does anyone think ISIS and ebola will have an effect? To be honest I haven't heard any candidates talking about anything else lately.It's looking extremely likely that Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, and Kansas will be the 4 states that control of the Senate comes down to.
I see Ernst is way up now. Alaska seems to be heading towards GOP as does Colorado in latest polls. How much does anyone think ISIS and ebola will have an effect? To be honest I haven't heard any candidates talking about anything else lately.
It's looking extremely likely that Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, and Kansas will be the 4 states that control of the Senate comes down to.
I would imagine ISIS and ebola would be to republicans advantage as well.DJIA : 16793 - 245.40 ... Wednesday October 1 3:42
I suppose the falling stock market will prove to be a republican advantage as well -
could be another 2010 runaway train wreck for the democrats.
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It's looking extremely likely that Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, and Kansas will be the 4 states that control of the Senate comes down to.
Even without those four, the GOP can come in at 50:
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Arkansas
Louisiana
Which would probably tip the independent from Maine right there. Which brings the GOP to 51, unless Roberts loses in KS, which means the GOP is at 50. It only needs one seat more. This reminds me a lot of 2006, where the dems just got to 51 seats and we were watching the McCaskill race until late into the night.
The Colorado polls may be just as off as they were in 2008, 2010 and 2012, where, for the third time in a row, the latino vote was grossly miscalculated. And indeed, polling in Alaska is weird and wonky. However, Ernst (R) is definitely putting daylight between herself and Braley.
And my money is on Orman (I) winning the senatorial in Kansas.
Both Democratic campaigns are plateauing out in both Kentucky and Georgia - a bad sign overall for the Democrats.
It's looking extremely likely that Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, and Kansas will be the 4 states that control of the Senate comes down to.
Even without those four, the GOP can come in at 50:
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Arkansas
Louisiana
Which would probably tip the independent from Maine right there. Which brings the GOP to 51, unless Roberts loses in KS, which means the GOP is at 50. It only needs one seat more. This reminds me a lot of 2006, where the dems just got to 51 seats and we were watching the McCaskill race until late into the night.
The Colorado polls may be just as off as they were in 2008, 2010 and 2012, where, for the third time in a row, the latino vote was grossly miscalculated. And indeed, polling in Alaska is weird and wonky. However, Ernst (R) is definitely putting daylight between herself and Braley.
And my money is on Orman (I) winning the senatorial in Kansas.
Both Democratic campaigns are plateauing out in both Kentucky and Georgia - a bad sign overall for the Democrats.
What will be incredibly bizarre is if the GOP does get the majority through those states listed and loses CO and IA...then they will have won the majority without winning over a "single state" that Obama won in 2012 (provided that MI and NH go dem, which is likely at this point).
It doesn't set much a precedent if the only way you get a majority is winning the states you already won two years ago anyway.
This election is not an outlier for 2016.
That will depend on millennials, women, minorities, and how the GOP treats them.
On the surface, it looks like Shaheen is regaining some of what she lost, but a lot of this statistic is either being propped up by a +11 poll for her that was conducted at exactly the same time as a CNN poll showing an absolute tie. Or you can say that this statistic is being pulled down by an outlier CNN poll. One thing is for sure: those two values absolutely cannot exist in the same universe at the same time. For Georgia, I write something similar about another firm that is likely an outlier right now. That being said, if you remove both CNN and New England college, then the average is: Shaheen +4.9.
This is a race where the polling aggregate sinus-curve is barely moving, in spite of a likely outlier Perdue +10 poll from InsiderAdvantage, a firm that was WAY off in Florida in 2012 and which hides it's internals behind a paywall. The final IA poll of Florida showed Romney +5, Obama won by +1, so IA was off by 6. Food for thought.
That being said, Perdue is ahead here and Nunn seems unable to erase his lean but resilient lead.
It was already discussed a week ago that LA does a jungle primary and then a runoff if no one reaches 50.
The aggregate for Cassidy in a two-man race is being bolstered by a poll from FOX that is mathematically an outlier. That being said, Cassidy is putting more and more light between himself and Democratic incumbent Landrieu. I wrote one week ago that there was too much old polling data in the aggregate. Now, there is 1 new poll for each category, but only one, still mixed with much older polling. We need a larger polling DNA for this state.
You could put me on the list as well please! Your post was great! Do you do that research yourself? Also, do you have any threads here on gubernatorial races or do you just follow the senate? I live in New England and it has become fascinating here this year. States like Massachusetts and Connecticut seem to be pulling right for the governors races and Scott Brown seems to be tied up in New Hampshire. Coakley has been a weak candidate for Massachusetts previously while Foley in Connecticut seems to be ahead because of Malloys gun legislation. As for Scott Brown he has taken advantage of the free staters up there in New Hampshire as they seem to be growing in numbers. It wouldn't surprise me to see NH swing completely right like they were decades ago.@Czernobog -please see the posting above.
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