2014 battle for control of the US Senate

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Statistikhengst, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Real Clear Politics does a pretty good compilation of polling (aggregate).

    Here is their Senate website:

    RealClearPolitics - 2014 Election Maps - Battle for the Senate

    (the graphic is interactive - clickable, and pretty much everything is hyperlinked)


    This is how RCP sees the battle for the Senate right now:


    $Senate 2014 - as of August 2014.png


    It sees nine seats in play. The GOP needs 4 of those nine seats. It needs 6 seats in order to win the Senate, but 2 of them are already clearly strongly R right now, and pretty much ceded to the GOP: Montana and South Dakota. Both are show on the graphic as "Likely R", and I concur.


    Let's take a look at the safe D seats:

    The Northeast: Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island
    The Midwest: Illinois
    The Southwest: New Mexico

    5 seats

    No one is expecting these seats to flip, even in the case of a massive GOP wave in the Fall.

    Let's take a look as the safe R seats:


    The South: Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma (special) South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
    The breadbasket: Kansas, Nebraska
    Big Sky: Idaho, Wyoming
    The Northeast: Maine

    12 seats.

    No one is expecting these seats to flip, even in the case that a GOP wave does not materialize in the Fall.

    Already, the GOP has a massive SAFE seat advantage over the Dems of more than 2:1


    Let's take a look at the likely D seats:

    The West: Hawaii, Oregon
    The Midwest: Minnesota
    The Northeast: New Jersey
    The South: Virginia


    These are the five states where the GOP is not really investing. Mark Warner is likely to win the biggest for the DEMS in this cycle, making him a future presidential candidate as well. Another important story here is the story of the power of the incumbency. Al Franken (D) barely won his Senate seat in 2008, but right now, his average over challenger Mike McFadden (R) is +10.4, which is a landslide aggregate margin. Of these states, the one state that could end up being a surprise on the senatorial level could be Hawaii.


    And let's take a look at the likely GOP seats:

    The South: Mississippi
    The Big Sky/Breadbasket: Montana, South Dakota (O)

    Here are already two pretty much guaranteed pick-ups for the Republicans in the Fall (MT, SD).

    Now the next is where RCP and I don't completely agree about the level, but we do agree about the direction.

    Under the leaning D states:

    The Northeast: New Hampshire

    The only problem I have with that is that Jean Shahean (D), according to RCP polling averages, is leading Republican Scott Brown by +10.4, which is exactly the same landslide margin that was shown for Al Franken (D) in Minnesota, so why one state should be considered likely D, but the other state is listed as leaning D is a mystery to me. Of course, the NH primary is first on September 9th, so right now the assumption is that Scott Brown, the former Republican Senator from Massachusetts, will become the Republican Senatorial nominee. Perhaps this is why RCP is classifying the two races in two different ways. Wait and see.

    And under the leaning R states:


    The South: West Virginia (O)

    Again, I wonder why RCP is classifying this as leaning R, because right now, Republican Shelly Capito is leading Democrat Natalie Tennent by +9.3, which is a near-landslide margin.


    Maybe RCP is just trying to be overly careful, but it sure seems to me that in both cases, those states are more "likely" for either D or R than "leaning", which means that most likely, the GOP already has 3 pick-ups in the bag: MT, SD and WV. Which means it only needs 3 of the statistical tossup states in order to outright have 51 Senate seats and therefore, the majority:


    That leaves us with nine statistical tossups:


    The South: Arkansas, Georgia (O), Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina
    The Midwest: Iowa (O) , Michigan (O )
    The Southeast / Mountain States: Colorado
    The Pacific: Alaska


    This is where the strategema looks extremely grim for the Democrats. Of those nine statistical tossups, five of those races are with Democratic incumbents who are all locked in tight races. There is only one race where a Republican incumbent is locked in a tight race (Kentucky - Mitch McConnell), and of the open races, two of the three are currently Democratic seats.

    Here are the averages:

    Alaska: AK has not had it's primary yet, but the values range from Begich (D) +0.4 over Treadwell (R) to Begich +12.0 over Miller. However, it looks as if Miller has no chance of winning the GOP primary (he beat Murkowski in 2010 and then lost to her as a write-in candidate in the Fall of that year).

    Arkansas: Cotton (R) +3, and incumbent Mark Pryor has not won in a poll since April.

    Colorado: Udall (D) +1.5

    Georgia: Perdue (R) +3.2

    Iowa: Ernst (R) +0.8

    Kentucky: McConnell (R) +2.5

    Louisiana: Cassidy (R) +1

    Michigan: Peters (D) +4

    North Carolina: Tillis +1.3


    Please remember that the aggregate values I am quoting are from today, 11 August 2014, and could already change again in the next days.

    Now, 8 of those 9 margins (aggregates) are well within the MoE and the Michigan margin is just outside the standard MoE, but right now, the GOP is a nose ahead in 6 of those 9 races. And remember, the GOP only needs to win 3, assuming that MT, SD and WV all go as pretty much everyone expects them to go.


    Almost eight months ago, I put out this thread:


    http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...pared-to-presidential-terms-1855-present.html


    Quote at the end:


    And indeed, what we are seeing right now is exactly in line with electoral history.

    And then there is Angus King (I - ME), who, should the GOP only win 5 seats for some reason, could play kingmaker and decide to caucus with the GOP. So, in reality, the GOP only needs to win 5 seats, but 6-8 are very likely.

    Now, there are two seats that the Democrats really COULD win:

    Georgia - and - Kentucky.

    But even that is dicey.

    And for this reason, the mention of Angus King. Should the GOP win 7 seats, but lose 2, it could still control the Senate, with Angus King (I) switching sides.

    When the last primaries are over with and the polling for the key races comes in, then I will be following the numbers quite closely, but the aggregates, from pollsters from all over the spectrum, are pointing to a very, very good outcome for the GOP in November.

    What's the absolute top-line?

    Well, I will take RCP's take, which currently shows 45 DEM seats in the basket, and were Angus King to switch sides, then the Senate could move from 54 (D) - 45 (R) 1 (I) to 54 (R) - 45 (D) - 1 (I). It could go from D+9 to R+9, which would then be a partisan shift of R+18.

    Please notice that I included the geography when listing the states. This is because the South is playing an enormous role in this: there are four southern states where the Dems could easily lose seats: WV, AR, NC, LA.

    My gut tells me that the GOP is going to do better than +6 in the fall, maybe +7 or +8, but could definitely lose one seat. This is also not uncommon in electoral history. Even in historic wave mid-terms, the "other side" has often picked up at least one seat. So, that's also not a big surprise.

    The next step in all of this is to see where the GOP places it's money in advertising and the sending in heavy hitters from other areas to help.

    I will be updating this thread again in late August.

    Oh, and [MENTION=21821]Samson[/MENTION], what was that again about "partisan hack"?
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2014
  2. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=34688]Grandma[/MENTION] [MENTION=48060]guno[/MENTION] [MENTION=42946]Howey[/MENTION] [MENTION=20112]bodecea[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=48010]Machaut[/MENTION] [MENTION=39530]AceRothstein[/MENTION] [MENTION=25493]kiwiman127[/MENTION] [MENTION=42949]bendog[/MENTION] [MENTION=49463]PoliticalTorch[/MENTION] [MENTION=39852]TheOldSchool[/MENTION] [MENTION=45739]Jughead[/MENTION] [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION]


    Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately. If you want onto the list, just let me know. I really am trying to make this a totally non-partisan list.

    Thanks,

    -Stat

    Folks, please do not quote this posting, otherwise, you send out the mention list again. Thanks.
     
  3. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    More than likely, the GOP will take the Senate in 2014.

    The good news, they won't take it by that much, maybe one or two seats, and they'll lose it again in 2016 with seats in IL and WI coming into play.
     
  4. Samson
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    Samson Póg Mo Thóin Supporting Member

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    Must be a slow polling month for Stat: where's the analysis of Data from a poll in B.F.E. That shows Hillary Clinton leading no less than 25 republican contenders in a race held in more than two years in the future?

    Note that Stat has omitted most of his customary partisan blather regarding WHY it appears Republicans will take the Senate. If Dems were ahead in the 2014 race to control the Senate, then we'd no doubt be treated to a litany of absurd excuses beginning with Boooooooooosh.

    :lol:
     
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  5. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Well, actually no.

    The Clinton update is due at the end of September. I do this according to a plan.

    And in my analysis of her polling I don't list WHY she is leading, I just report the averages.

    I already challenged you to find even just one single posting of mine, just one, where I have blamed former Pres. Bush for anything during the Obama administration, and you apparently couldn't find one. Tsk, tsk.

    You are able to read enough to troll, so I suspect you would already know this.

    Oh, and I post less when I am on vacation. This is just fun for me.

    I know you are totally anal retentive and may find that word "fun" difficult to understand, but do try.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 11, 2014
  6. Statistikhengst
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    Statistikhengst תיקון עולם, this will never end Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Indeed, the seats up for grabs in 2016 would be the same seats that were in contention in 2010, and in that case, the tables will likely be turned, with the GOP having to protect more "turf" than the Democrats.
     
  7. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    I think the worst the GOP can do is 50 and may win as many as 54.

    Normal Americans are willing to look at candidates not like Akins, Mourdouch, Angle, O'Donnell, etc.

    If we wish take the presidency from the Dems in 2016, we will have to cut a meaningful deal on immigration sometime in 2015.
     
  8. Nyvin
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    Nyvin Gold Member

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    Angus King is very unlikely to caucus with the GOP. He leans left with his voting record and doesn't come anywhere near as moderate as the GOP's "moderates" like Murkowski, Kirk, and Collins (Harry Reid actually has a more moderate vote record then King...).

    He also comes from a bluer state than most of the GOP and looking ahead at 2016 it's unlikely the GOP will be able to hang onto the majority thus not making it a wise decision to flip-flop.
     
  9. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    I predict 50/50, giving Biden a lot more to do over the last 2 years of his term.
     
  10. Wolfsister77
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    Wolfsister77 Knowledge Is Power Supporting Member

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    I agree that it is going to be nearly impossible for the Democrats to hang onto the Senate in 2014. I'm sure Obama is going to get more use out of his Veto power than he has up to this point. Not only are several Dems retiring in tough States, but you have Reps beating out some Tea Party challengers in other tough States. Plus, the party in the WH usually doesn't do as well in the midterms in Senate races anyway. So none of this should come as a really big surprise to anyone.
     
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