2014 battle for control of the US Senate

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

No reason to stay in Michigan. She's not going to win. At this point in the game you need to concentrate your resources where they matter most. They may need to start throwing some money into South Dakota given today's poll and the Rounds scandal brewing up again.

 

[Dot Com]

I want the Repubs to win the senate so that the Dems get it back in '16 along w/ the Presidency BUT:

As South Dakota Race Breaks Open Bizarre Turn Of Events Could Save Senate For Democrats

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, it's now 20 days before the 2014 Mid-Term elections across our great Union.
Many pols, pollsters, pundits and statisticians call the 3-week mark the "break-away point", where one candidate begins to take a decisive lead in a race that was already leaning his way.

I am seeing less signs of a "break-away point" this year. In fact, I am seeing it in only one race right now.

Here were the aggregates from Tuesday last week (October 7, 2014):

2014 battle for control of the US Senate Page 8 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

And now, today (October 15, 2014):

DEMOCRATS LEADING:
​

Aggregate, MI:

August 11, 2014: Peters +4.0
September 16, 2014: Peters +5.2
September 22, 2014: Peters +5.4
October 2, 2014: Peters +6.0
October 7, 2014: Peters +6.7
October 15, 2014: Peters +9.0

The needle has moved +2.3 in Peters' direction over the last week. Last week, I wrote:

Of the competitive Senate races, this one is probably the safest for the Democrats at this time. Peters is heading into the safe zone.

And indeed, Peters is now in the safe zone. This race goes off the battlegrounds next week.

Aggregate, NH:

August 11, 2014: Shaheen +10.4
September 16, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
September 22, 2014: Shaheen +5.0
October 2, 2014: Shaheen +4.0
October 7, 2014: Shaheen +4.6
October 15, 2014: Shaheen +3.5


The needle has moved 1.1 points in Scott Brown's (R) direction. The New England College poll is the first one in a while to show Brown slightly in the lead. That being said, incumbent Shaheen (D) still has an aggregate lead that is right at the cusp of the MoE (Margin of Error).

Aggregate, NC:

August 11, 2014: Tillis +1.3
September 16, 2014: Hagan +3.7
September 22,2014: Hagan +5.0
October 2, 2014: Hagan +4.2
October 7, 2014: Hagan +3.7
October 15, 2014: Hagan +1.5


The needle has moved 2.2 points toward Tillis (R) and this race is tightening up. Still, it has been two months since Tillis had an aggregate lead.

REPUBLICANS leading:​

Aggregate, IA:

August 11, 2014: Ernst +0.8
September 16, 2014: Braley +1.4
September 22: Braley +0.1
October 2, 2014: Ernst +2.8
October 7, 2014: Ernst +1.9
October 15, 2014: Ernst +1.2

Technically, the needle has moved 0.7 toward Braley (R), but Ernst still has an aggregate lead and lead in most recent polls. But an aggregate 1.2 is well within the MoE, anything can happen in this race. Neither candidate has "put it away".

Aggregate, CO:

August 11, 2014: Udall +3.7
September 16, 2014: Udall +1.5
September 22, 2014: Udall +0.6
October 2, 2014: Gardner +1.5
October 7, 2014: Gardner +0.6
October 15, 2014: Gardner +1.4

This aggregate, like the one in Iowa, is well within the MoE - it can go either way. Only, the pollsters in 2008, 2010 and 2012 were massively off in CO, NV, NM, etc.... in states with heavy Latino populations, which I showed graphically on October 2nd and 7th. Technically, Gardner has the aggregate lead, but this could end up being the surprise of the night, just as Colorado and Nevada were the big surprises of the night in 2010. Wait and see.

Aggregate, AK:

August 11, 2014: -no aggregate was possible-
September 16, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
September 22, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
October 2, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 7, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 15, 2014: Sullivan +4.4

Sullivan's (R) aggregate lead over incumbent Begich (D) has been in the +4 zone now for 3 weeks and holding steady. Unless Mark Begich has a trump card we are not seeing somewhere up his sleeve, if this races opens more, I suspect that it is then a done deal for Sullivan. Begich just barely won in 2008 in a squeaker in one of the reddest states in the nation, it is therefore no wonder that he is struggling in the mid-terms of a 2nd term Presidency where the opposition party generally makes substantial gains in congress. That being said, there were some polls that showed a Begich lead, RCP however has not reported them. Even so, Sullivan would still be in the lead, albeit somewhat narrower.

Aggregate, GA:

August 11, 2014: Perdue +3.2
September 16, 2014: Perdue +3.0
September 22, 2014: Perdue +3.3
October 2, 2014: Perdue +3.4
October 7, 2014: Perdue +3.1
October 15, 2014: Perdue +2.7


This is Perdue's (R) narrowest aggregate lead since August, and yet, he is still in the lead. To note: The landmark poll is from a Republican polling firm, not a Democratic firm and the SUSA poll only shows a 1 point lead for Perdue. So, the tie poll is not necessarily an outlier at all. The last three polls are well within the MoE and the other 3 (older polls) are just outside the MoE. This race is anything but done. No one should be uncorking the champagne yet. But since GA has a 50% hurdle and there is indeed a third party candidate on the ballot, this race could very well go into overtime, into December.

Aggregate, AR:

September 16, 2014: Cotton +2.5
September 22, 2014: Cotton +2.5
October 2, 2014: Cotton +3.6
October 7, 2014: Cotton +3.7
October 15, 2014: Cotton +4.4

The needle has moved 0.7 in Cotton's (R) direction. However, an ORA poll is missing from RCP's calculations:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ADPOctober2014SurveyMemo.pdf

It shows Pryor +2 and was released on October 7. If you calculate that poll in the mix, then the aggregate would be Cotton +3.3. And if you remove old polls and have just the three polls from October, including ORA, then the aggregate would be Cotton +3.0. Either way, Cotton still has a lean but resilient lead. He is very likely to upset incumbent Mark Pryor (D).

Double aggregate, LA:

Jungle Primary, October 2, 2014: Landrieu +1.2
Jungle Primary, October 7, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 15, 2014: Landrieu +2.7

Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 2, 2014: Cassidy +4.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 7, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 15, 2014: Cassidy +5.6

Absolutely no change over last week. This too could and will very likely go into overtime, with 3rd party candidate Maness at about 8%. I did the mathematical extrapolation for this on October 7th.

Aggregate, KY:

August 11, 2014: McConnell +2.5
September 16, 2014: McConnell +5.2
September 22, 2014: McConnell +5.2
October 2, 2014: McConnell +5.3
October 7, 2014: McConnell +4.2
October 15, 2014: McConnell +3.0

The needle has moved +1.2 toward Grimes (D), but McConnell (R-inc) still has the aggregate lead. The DNC just pulled funds from this race, if I read the news correctly, which is a tellling sign. Grimes may make this race close and make a name for herself for the future, but McConnell is likely to retain his seat.

INDEPENDENT tied:​

Aggregate, KS:
September 22, 2014: Orman +1.2
October 2, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 7, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 15, 2014: mathematical tie

The needle has moved 5.3 points toward Roberts (R) since last week.

This is an interesting development, but may just be smoke and mirrors. Poll aggregates are like sinus curves, the open and close some. We have three polls showing Roberts ahead (with the largest lead, unsurprisingly, from the FOX poll) and two polls showing Orman ahead. The SUSA poll is probably the one pollster with absolutely no horse in this race, it is likely the best overall indicator.

Next week will show if this was just a sinus curve movement or if the GOP really is regaining ground in ruby Red Kansas. It should be noted that the Remington poll also shows Governor Brownback (R-inc), who has been considerably behind in every single other poll, ahead of his Democratic opponent. And this is a good moment to note that lesser known partisan pollsters for the Democrats are generally excluded from RCP's calculations, but this lesser known GOP pollster was included in the statistics as quickly as possible. Interesting, eh?

Mathematically, this is currently a tie. Polling history from 2008, 2010 and 2012 tells me that PPP and SUSA are by far the decidely more accurate pollsters, Orman (I) is very likely still ahead. Wait and see.


FACIT: movement in both directions since last week, but the likely GOP pickups have not changed and the two states that are real dog-fights have also not changed. The GOP is still on target to pick up at least 6 seats net and therefore get to 51 (majority) in the US Senate, albeit not necessarily on election night.

That being said, in the generic aggregate, the GOP lead has barely budged since last week:

Generic aggregate, October 2, 2014: GOP +2.9
Generic aggregate, October 7, 2014: GOP +2.1
Generic aggregate, October 15, 2014: GOP +2.4

The generic polling is also all over the place: Gallup (a completely discredited polling outfit in my eyes), which showed GOP +15 on the eve of the 2010 mid-terms and end up being off by 9.3 points, currently only shows GOP +1. And Rasmussen, which tends to be 4 points off to the Right in practically everything, shows a tie.
But NBC, which is accused of being in the tank for the Left, also shows GOP +1. It's also been two weeks since any generic poll showed a team-blue lead, so this GOP aggregate is likely to grow again by next week. However, at this point in time in 2010, the aggregate for the GOP was between +5 and +6.

Therefore, there are still no statistical signs of a wave, but plenty of evidence that the GOP is winning where it needs to, which is exactly in line with 160 years of US mid-term election history:

Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

This is all going to be a matter of voter interest and GOTV, plain and simple.



I see a strong possibility that IA cannot be called on election night, that CO may be a real surprise for the pollsters, that SD, which was considered a shoo-in for the GOP, could suddenly become interesting. And I want to show you why:

Aggregate, SD:

October 1, 2014: Rounds +14
October 15, 2014: Rounds +9

But within a week or two, those polls from September fall out of the statistic and then the aggregate could be: Rounds +3.5 to Rounds +4.0. I fully expect that a bevy of polls may come out of South Dakota in the next week.

Therefore, as Michigan is obviously leaving the battlegrounds, it is very possible that South Dakota, first considered a guaranteed GOP pick-up, may enter the battlegrounds. That being said, 3 or 4-man races can be very, very hard to poll.

The point of this is that on election night, the GOP may get to 49 or 50, but not to 51, because both Louisiana and Georgia are very likely to go into overtime.

I am not expecting a decisive call for the US Senate until the first week in December.

 

[Statistikhengst]

And that testimony from one week ago still stands. We now have historical evidence from 2008, 2010 and 2012 that polling in the western states where there are sizeable Latino communities has been unreliable. And the polling statisticians from both sides, I am sure, are keenly aware of this historical fact.

This is because of the high number of illegals in the Hispanic community. They are afraid to answer questions from pollsters for fear of it being a government trap and they will get deported. All the more reason for voter ID laws to prevent election fraud.

You have absolutely not evidence to back up this claim. You realize that states keep track of voter registration right? And many do it according to gender and race.

But your ugly bigotry is duly noted.

 

[Dot Com]

And that testimony from one week ago still stands. We now have historical evidence from 2008, 2010 and 2012 that polling in the western states where there are sizeable Latino communities has been unreliable. And the polling statisticians from both sides, I am sure, are keenly aware of this historical fact.

This is because of the high number of illegals in the Hispanic community. They are afraid to answer questions from pollsters for fear of it being a government trap and they will get deported. All the more reason for voter ID laws to prevent election fraud.

You have absolutely not evidence to back up this claim. You realize that states keep track of voter registration right? And many do it according to gender and race.

But your ugly bigotry is duly noted.

no surprise there. I think no matter who wins, the Dems win in `16

 

[HenryBHough]

no surprise there. I think no matter who wins, the Dems win in `16

Provided any of the present "front runners" remember to run or have been pardoned in order to become eligible?

 

[birddog]

The Rs will end up with 51 or 52 in the upcoming election. Louisiana will go to the R, likely in December.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, in 14 days, we Americans will go to the polls and elect a new US-Congress. Actually, many of us have already voted. I sent in my absentee ballot this week.

The time frame between 3 weeks before this election and 2 weeks before this election has been more marked by stillstand instead of change, in terms of polling. The real shift right now is being seen in Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn is picking up steam and it really does look like a tied-up horserace.

I wrote one week ago that Gary Peters (D) was going to leave the battlegrounds, and indeed there has been no more polling of Michigan. His aggregate stands at +9, which is well inside the comfort zone. The RNC has also pulled money out of MI, which means they have given up on it. Similary, the DNC has pulled funds out of Kentucky and it looks like Mitch McConnell will be re-elected, if these numbers hold. However, the KY aggregate still shows a battleground statistic, at least for now.

Also, one week ago, I noted that usually around the -3 to -2 week period, pols, pollsters, pundits and the like often call it the break-away period, where one candidate starts to surge into a major lead. We are not seeing that, either. This year is somehow just a little different that other mid-terms.

Here was the posting from one week ago:

2014 battle for control of the US Senate Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


And here are the aggregates as of today, October 21, 2014:

DEMOCRATS LEADING:
​

Aggregate, NH:

August 11, 2014: Shaheen +10.4
September 16, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
September 22, 2014: Shaheen +5.0
October 2, 2014: Shaheen +4.0
October 7, 2014: Shaheen +4.6
October 15, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
October 21, 2014: Shaheen +2.6

The needle has moved 0.9 in Scott Brown's direction, but Shaheen has lead in 4 of the last 5 polls. That being said, Shaheen has lost a lot of ground since August. This race could easily tip at the last minute, but for now, we are seeing a small but resilient lead for the incumbent Democrat.

Aggregate, NC:

August 11, 2014: Tillis +1.3
September 16, 2014: Hagan +3.7
September 22,2014: Hagan +5.0
October 2, 2014: Hagan +4.2
October 7, 2014: Hagan +3.7
October 15, 2014: Hagan +1.5
October 21, 2014: Hagan +1.2

Technically, the needle has moved 0.3 toward Thom Tillis (R) but like Jean Shaheen in New Hampshire, Kay Hagan has a small but resilient lead. And early voting is already underway in NC. That being said, an aggregate +1.2 is well within the MoE, Tillis could actually be leading right now. Dogfight.

REPUBLICANS leading:
​

Aggregate, GA:

August 11, 2014: Perdue +3.2
September 16, 2014: Perdue +3.0
September 22, 2014: Perdue +3.3
October 2, 2014: Perdue +3.4
October 7, 2014: Perdue +3.1
October 15, 2014: Perdue +2.7
October 21, 2014: Perdue +0.6

The needle has moved 1.9 points toward Michelle Nunn (D), making the aggregate for this race the closest aggregate at this time and the largest shift over last week. Horserace. No one is putting this race away and it could easily go for either candidate. But just as the motion has been for Joni Ernst (R) in Iowa, the motion is for Nunn (D) in Georgia at this moment. This is the ONLY big change between week 3 before the election and week 2 before the election. BTW, the Georgia Gubernatorial is also tightening up quite considerably.

Aggregate, IA:

August 11, 2014: Ernst +0.8
September 16, 2014: Braley +1.4
September 22: Braley +0.1
October 2, 2014: Ernst +2.8
October 7, 2014: Ernst +1.9
October 15, 2014: Ernst +1.2
October 21, 2014: Ernst +2.5


The needle has moved 1.3 points toward Ernst, she is putting a little daylight between herself and Bruce Braley. Her lead is very similar to Shaheen's lead in NH.

Aggregate, CO:

August 11, 2014: Udall +3.7
September 16, 2014: Udall +1.5
September 22, 2014: Udall +0.6
October 2, 2014: Gardner +1.5
October 7, 2014: Gardner +0.6
October 15, 2014: Gardner +1.4
October 21, 2014: Gardner +3.0

The needle has moved +1.6 points in Gardner's direction. In the postings from October 15th and from October 7th, I reminded how very off polling was in Colorado and in Nevada in 2010, also in 2012. Reason: gross miscalculation of the Latino vote. But on paper, Gardner has the lead.


New addition to the battlegrounds:

Aggregate:

October 21, 2014 (RCP): Rounds +9.8
actual aggregate: Rounds +3.5


The RCP aggregate for this is WAY off. First, the Nielson Brothers and CBS polls are way too old. This leaves Rounds at a real aggregate of +3.5 for now. Surely a bevy of polling will follow in this state in the next 14 days.

Aggregate, AK:

August 11, 2014: -no aggregate was possible-
September 16, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
September 22, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
October 2, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 7, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 15, 2014: Sullivan +4.4
October 21, 2014: Sullivan +4.4

No new polling from last week and absolutely no change in the aggregate.

Aggregate, AR:

September 16, 2014: Cotton +2.5
September 22, 2014: Cotton +2.5
October 2, 2014: Cotton +3.6
October 7, 2014: Cotton +3.7
October 15, 2014: Cotton +4.4
October 21, 2014: Cotton +3.6

The needle, after having moved 0.7 in Cotton's (R) direction last week, has moved 0.8 toward Mark Pryor (D) this week. And the ORA poll I quoted last week is still missing from RCP's statistics. +3.6 is just barely out of the standard MoE. Cotton has the lead.

Double aggregate, LA:

Jungle Primary, October 2, 2014: Landrieu +1.2
Jungle Primary, October 7, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 15, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 21, 2014: Landrieu +2.8

Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 2, 2014: Cassidy +4.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 7, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 15, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 21, 2014: Cassidy +5.3


Very little change over last week, could be just statistical noise - in both cases. This too could and will very likely go into overtime, with 3rd party candidate Maness at about 8%. I did the mathematical extrapolation for this on October 7th.

Aggregate, KY:

August 11, 2014: McConnell +2.5
September 16, 2014: McConnell +5.2
September 22, 2014: McConnell +5.2
October 2, 2014: McConnell +5.3
October 7, 2014: McConnell +4.2
October 15, 2014: McConnell +3.0
October 21, 2014: McConnell +4.7


The needle has moved +1.7 toward McConnell (R-inc), who still has the aggregate lead. The DNC just pulled funds from this race last week, which is a tellling sign. Triage-time has come. Grimes may make this race close and make a name for herself for the future, but McConnell is likely to retain his seat.

INDEPENDENT tied:​

Aggregate, KS:
September 22, 2014: Orman +1.2
October 2, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 7, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 15, 2014: mathematical tie
October 21, 2014: mathematical tie


No change since last week, or maybe yes, but it means the same outcome.

Monmouth has released a poll of KS:

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/145f0962-9f03-4ef3-a9e7-78534f38d6d2.pdf

Orman 46 / Roberts 46.

Again, a mathematical tie, which would not change the aggregate, but rather, confirm it. It's all tied up in KS. But where one poll showed Brownback (R) surging back in the KS gubernatorial, this poll shows Davis (D) winning.


FACIT: outside of Georgia, a lot of NON-MOVEMENT this last week, but the likely GOP pickups have not changed and the states that are real dog-fights have grown from 2 to 3 (+Georgia). The GOP is still on target to pick up at least 6 seats net and therefore get to 51 (majority) in the US Senate, albeit not necessarily on election night.

That being said, in the generic aggregate, the GOP lead has slightly increased since last week:

Generic aggregate, October 2, 2014: GOP +2.9
Generic aggregate, October 7, 2014: GOP +2.1
Generic aggregate, October 15, 2014: GOP +2.4
Generic aggregate, October 21, 2014: GOP +3.4


+3.4 is within the MoE.

For comparision purposes, here is the generic aggregate from 2010, with the polls in just about the same time frame boxed in green:

That makes for ten polls, which makes for an average of GOP +7 at this corresponding two-week time frame from 4 years ago. I want to remind again that on the eve of the election, Gallup predicted GOP +15. The actual result (which is incorrectly stated here in the RCP graphic), was: GOP +5.7. Gallup was off by 9.3 points four years ago. Politico/GWU/Battleground, CBS and McClatchy came the closest.

Wait and see what happens this time.

The generic ballot still does not show a GOP wave forming, but the critical point is that the GOP is winning where it needs to win, which is exactly in line with 160 years of US mid-term election history:

Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

This is all going to be a matter of voter interest and GOTV, plain and simple. And I bet that the control of the Senate will go into overtime in both Georgia and Louisiana. And to make matters worse, according to Georgia's calendar:

2014 elections and voter registration calendar

federal runoffs are not in December, they are in JANUARY. The runoff date for the Senatorial, if I have read this correctly, is Tuesday, January 5th, 2015, after the next session of Congress has already begun. That is just crazy. The runoff in Louisiana is on December 2nd, 2014.

Those are the current stats.

-Stat


PS. I suspect there will be a massive flurry of polls starting, well, about today. Stay tuned.

 

[pepperpot]

So, in 14 days, we Americans will go to the polls and elect a new US-Congress. Actually, many of us have already voted. I sent in my absentee ballot this week.

The time frame between 3 weeks before this election and 2 weeks before this election has been more marked by stillstand instead of change, in terms of polling. The real shift right now is being seen in Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn is picking up steam and it really does look like a tied-up horserace.

I wrote one week ago that Gary Peters (D) was going to leave the battlegrounds, and indeed there has been no more polling of Michigan. His aggregate stands at +9, which is well inside the comfort zone. The RNC has also pulled money out of MI, which means they have given up on it. Similary, the DNC has pulled funds out of Kentucky and it looks like Mitch McConnell will be re-elected, if these numbers hold. However, the KY aggregate still shows a battleground statistic, at least for now.

Also, one week ago, I noted that usually around the -3 to -2 week period, pols, pollsters, pundits and the like often call it the break-away period, where one candidate starts to surge into a major lead. We are not seeing that, either. This year is somehow just a little different that other mid-terms.

Here was the posting from one week ago:

2014 battle for control of the US Senate Page 9 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


And here are the aggregates as of today, October 21, 2014:

DEMOCRATS LEADING:
​

View attachment 33122


Aggregate, NH:

August 11, 2014: Shaheen +10.4
September 16, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
September 22, 2014: Shaheen +5.0
October 2, 2014: Shaheen +4.0
October 7, 2014: Shaheen +4.6
October 15, 2014: Shaheen +3.5
October 21, 2014: Shaheen +2.6

The needle has moved 0.9 in Scott Brown's direction, but Shaheen has lead in 4 of the last 5 polls. That being said, Shaheen has lost a lot of ground since August. This race could easily tip at the last minute, but for now, we are seeing a small but resilient lead for the incumbent Democrat.


View attachment 33123


Aggregate, NC:

August 11, 2014: Tillis +1.3
September 16, 2014: Hagan +3.7
September 22,2014: Hagan +5.0
October 2, 2014: Hagan +4.2
October 7, 2014: Hagan +3.7
October 15, 2014: Hagan +1.5
October 21, 2014: Hagan +1.2

Technically, the needle has moved 0.3 toward Thom Tillis (R) but like Jean Shaheen in New Hampshire, Kay Hagan has a small but resilient lead. And early voting is already underway in NC. That being said, an aggregate +1.2 is well within the MoE, Tillis could actually be leading right now. Dogfight.

REPUBLICANS leading:
​

View attachment 33125

Aggregate, GA:

August 11, 2014: Perdue +3.2
September 16, 2014: Perdue +3.0
September 22, 2014: Perdue +3.3
October 2, 2014: Perdue +3.4
October 7, 2014: Perdue +3.1
October 15, 2014: Perdue +2.7
October 21, 2014: Perdue +0.6

The needle has moved 1.9 points toward Michelle Nunn (D), making the aggregate for this race the closest aggregate at this time and the largest shift over last week. Horserace. No one is putting this race away and it could easily go for either candidate. But just as the motion has been for Joni Ernst (R) in Iowa, the motion is for Nunn (D) in Georgia at this moment. This is the ONLY big change between week 3 before the election and week 2 before the election. BTW, the Georgia Gubernatorial is also tightening up quite considerably.

View attachment 33124

Aggregate, IA:

August 11, 2014: Ernst +0.8
September 16, 2014: Braley +1.4
September 22: Braley +0.1
October 2, 2014: Ernst +2.8
October 7, 2014: Ernst +1.9
October 15, 2014: Ernst +1.2
October 21, 2014: Ernst +2.5


The needle has moved 1.3 points toward Ernst, she is putting a little daylight between herself and Bruce Braley. Her lead is very similar to Shaheen's lead in NH.


View attachment 33127

Aggregate, CO:

August 11, 2014: Udall +3.7
September 16, 2014: Udall +1.5
September 22, 2014: Udall +0.6
October 2, 2014: Gardner +1.5
October 7, 2014: Gardner +0.6
October 15, 2014: Gardner +1.4
October 21, 2014: Gardner +3.0

The needle has moved +1.6 points in Gardner's direction. In the postings from October 15th and from October 7th, I reminded how very off polling was in Colorado and in Nevada in 2010, also in 2012. Reason: gross miscalculation of the Latino vote. But on paper, Gardner has the lead.


New addition to the battlegrounds:


View attachment 33129


Aggregate:

October 21, 2014 (RCP): Rounds +9.8
actual aggregate: Rounds +3.5


The RCP aggregate for this is WAY off. First, the Nielson Brothers and CBS polls are way too old. This leaves Rounds at a real aggregate of +3.5 for now. Surely a bevy of polling will follow in this state in the next 14 days.

View attachment 33128


Aggregate, AK:

August 11, 2014: -no aggregate was possible-
September 16, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
September 22, 2014: Sullivan +1.3
October 2, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 7, 2014: Sullivan +4.7
October 15, 2014: Sullivan +4.4
October 21, 2014: Sullivan +4.4

No new polling from last week and absolutely no change in the aggregate.


View attachment 33131



Aggregate, AR:

September 16, 2014: Cotton +2.5
September 22, 2014: Cotton +2.5
October 2, 2014: Cotton +3.6
October 7, 2014: Cotton +3.7
October 15, 2014: Cotton +4.4
October 21, 2014: Cotton +3.6

The needle, after having moved 0.7 in Cotton's (R) direction last week, has moved 0.8 toward Mark Pryor (D) this week. And the ORA poll I quoted last week is still missing from RCP's statistics. +3.6 is just barely out of the standard MoE. Cotton has the lead.


View attachment 33132

Double aggregate, LA:

Jungle Primary, October 2, 2014: Landrieu +1.2
Jungle Primary, October 7, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 15, 2014: Landrieu +2.7
Jungle Primary, October 21, 2014: Landrieu +2.8

Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 2, 2014: Cassidy +4.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 7, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 15, 2014: Cassidy +5.6
Two-"man" race, possible runoff, October 21, 2014: Cassidy +5.3


Very little change over last week, could be just statistical noise - in both cases. This too could and will very likely go into overtime, with 3rd party candidate Maness at about 8%. I did the mathematical extrapolation for this on October 7th.


View attachment 33133


Aggregate, KY:

August 11, 2014: McConnell +2.5
September 16, 2014: McConnell +5.2
September 22, 2014: McConnell +5.2
October 2, 2014: McConnell +5.3
October 7, 2014: McConnell +4.2
October 15, 2014: McConnell +3.0
October 21, 2014: McConnell +4.7


The needle has moved +1.7 toward McConnell (R-inc), who still has the aggregate lead. The DNC just pulled funds from this race last week, which is a tellling sign. Triage-time has come. Grimes may make this race close and make a name for herself for the future, but McConnell is likely to retain his seat.

INDEPENDENT tied:​

View attachment 33134


Aggregate, KS:
September 22, 2014: Orman +1.2
October 2, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 7, 2014: Orman +5.3
October 15, 2014: mathematical tie
October 21, 2014: mathematical tie


No change since last week, or maybe yes, but it means the same outcome.

Monmouth has released a poll of KS:

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/145f0962-9f03-4ef3-a9e7-78534f38d6d2.pdf

Orman 46 / Roberts 46.

Again, a mathematical tie, which would not change the aggregate, but rather, confirm it. It's all tied up in KS. But where one poll showed Brownback (R) surging back in the KS gubernatorial, this poll shows Davis (D) winning.


FACIT: outside of Georgia, a lot of NON-MOVEMENT this last week, but the likely GOP pickups have not changed and the states that are real dog-fights have grown from 2 to 3 (+Georgia). The GOP is still on target to pick up at least 6 seats net and therefore get to 51 (majority) in the US Senate, albeit not necessarily on election night.

That being said, in the generic aggregate, the GOP lead has slightly increased since last week:

View attachment 33135

Generic aggregate, October 2, 2014: GOP +2.9
Generic aggregate, October 7, 2014: GOP +2.1
Generic aggregate, October 15, 2014: GOP +2.4
Generic aggregate, October 21, 2014: GOP +3.4


+3.4 is within the MoE.

For comparision purposes, here is the generic aggregate from 2010, with the polls in just about the same time frame boxed in green:


View attachment 33136

That makes for ten polls, which makes for an average of GOP +7 at this corresponding two-week time frame from 4 years ago. I want to remind again that on the eve of the election, Gallup predicted GOP +15. The actual result (which is incorrectly stated here in the RCP graphic), was: GOP +5.7. Gallup was off by 9.3 points four years ago. Politico/GWU/Battleground, CBS and McClatchy came the closest.

Wait and see what happens this time.

The generic ballot still does not show a GOP wave forming, but the critical point is that the GOP is winning where it needs to win, which is exactly in line with 160 years of US mid-term election history:

Congressional Elections compared to Presidential Terms 1855-present US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

This is all going to be a matter of voter interest and GOTV, plain and simple. And I bet that the control of the Senate will go into overtime in both Georgia and Louisiana. And to make matters worse, according to Georgia's calendar:

2014 elections and voter registration calendar

federal runoffs are not in December, they are in JANUARY. The runoff date for the Senatorial, if I have read this correctly, is Tuesday, January 5th, 2015, after the next session of Congress has already begun. That is just crazy. The runoff in Louisiana is on December 2nd, 2014.

Those are the current stats.

-Stat


PS. I suspect there will be a massive flurry of polls starting, well, about today. Stay tuned.

 

[pepperpot]

Been hearing about runoffs in Georgia and another state, I cant recall. How does that work and how do the pundits think that will work out?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Been hearing about runoffs in Georgia and another state, I cant recall. How does that work and how do the pundits think that will work out?

The top two vote-getters from the GE go into a runoff if one of them has not gotten over 50% on election night, thus removing third party and write ins from the runoff ballot.

Georgia and Lousiana have a runoff system, both races are very likely to go into runoffs.

 

[birddog]

I have been predicting the Rs will end up with 51-52. It is likely now that the Rs could end up with 52-53. Scott Brown and Tillis are key players.

 

[BreezeWood]

.
price of gas at pump falling - Middle East stabelizing - no new ebola cases - Obama able to draw enthusiastic crows when campaigning recently ...

the Ds have a chance to rally the troops and hold the Senate, in the last two weeks if Obama draws crowds the Ds should go on the offensive.

.

 

[Nyvin]

Nunn has an aggregate lead now in the polls, with the last three showing her with a lead and another previous one showing a tie.

Georgia is surprisingly still competitive...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn

 

[Nyvin]

So another poll just came out in the Georgia Senate race....FOUR polls in a row now show Nunn with a lead, and the fifth most recent one shows a tie. Is this race going to be an October surprise? Granted Nunn needs to break 50% or it goes to run off.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So another poll just came out in the Georgia Senate race....FOUR polls in a row now show Nunn with a lead, and the fifth most recent one shows a tie. Is this race going to be an October surprise? Granted Nunn needs to break 50% or it goes to run off.

This is an interesting development and an ominous sign for the GOP in the 2016 presidential election. Hillary has an extremely good chance of picking-up Georgia by a relatively comfortable margin.

Reason: demographics.

 

[Dot Com]

NBC News Marist Polls Show Tight Contests in Key States - NBC News

 

[HenryBHough]

I cannot count the number of telephone pollsters I have filled so full of shit that their eyes turned brown. I'm sure both sides are doing the same thing so trust those polls as much as your low IQ allows!

 

[Statistikhengst]

I cannot count the number of telephone pollsters I have filled so full of shit that their eyes turned brown. I'm sure both sides are doing the same thing so trust those polls as much as your low IQ allows!

And yet, in spite of deliberate shit-fillers like you, the aggregate polling in 2012 was actually very accurate, even when mathematically slightly tilted to the Right.

 

[HenryBHough]

Keep on believing, Statist. Your emotional condition depends on it.